The Great Recession and Welfare State Reform: Is Retrenchment Really the Only Game Left in Town?

By 2010, when the Greek sovereign debt crisis changed into an existential crisis of the euro, all developed democracies entered a phase in which they had to consolidate their budgets, typically implying a politics of austerity. The scholarly literature, as well as the popular press, suggests that – consequently – welfare retrenchment and cost containment became the only games left in town. In this article, we study the welfare state reform measures taken between 2010 and 2012 in four countries characteristic of mature welfare state regimes (liberal, UK; conservative, Germany; social democratic, Denmark; and hybrid, the Netherlands) to examine empirically whether austerity has indeed become the only item left on the policy menu. Our analysis reveals that retrenchment features prominently on the agenda everywhere, but nowhere by itself. While compensation for income loss is rare since 2010, this still happens. More unexpectedly, reforms in line with a social investment agenda (like expansion of child care or active labour market policies) are still being pursued in all our four cases.     

市场化改革与腐败治理：基于微观案件数据的实证分析

随着市场化改革的深入，中国的腐败现象也呈增长趋势。本文通过对1993—2013年3 843个腐败案件的分析发现，那些具有配置资源权力的官员出现腐败问题的可能性更大，程度也更严重。这一效应在官员的任职领域正处于市场化改革阶段时被放大，但随着改革的完成而大幅度减小。市场化过程中腐败问题的制度性根源在于市场化改革没有完成或不彻底的市场化，而不是市场化本身。因此，只有坚持市场化改革，才能清除权力寻租的土壤，进而遏制腐败问题。     

FDI,democracy and corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper investigates the relationship between FDI, democracy and corruption among 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period of 1985–2014 to determine whether the ‘helping hand’ or ‘grabbing hand’ hypothesis is most applicable. The results of GMM analysis show that corruption is used by FDI investors to overcome the region’s weak democratic regulatory and institutional status and thus the ‘helping hand’ is more prevalent. However, the results further show that as democratic capital accumulates, this association may outlive its usefulness and thus corruption as a ‘helping hand’ in time becomes a ‘grabbing hand’ instead. These results imply that SSA countries should focus on integrating into the international economy so as to take advantage of existing financial enforcement legislation while reconstructing and strengthening domestic constitutional anti-corruption legislation and institutions.     

Economic reform when institutional quality is weak: The case of the Maghreb

Institutional improvement can be a very slow and uncertain process when institutional quality is weak. In the meantime, countries have launched far-reaching economic reforms whose success is predicated on a large investment response. However, the uncertainties attending institutional reform can raise perceptions of risk, thereby muting investment responses. Using new values of institutional quality for three Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia), which we derive from fuzzy-set based transformations on freedom indices, we show that moving from low institutional quality to a stage of ‘partial improvement’ may reduce income per capita, with financial and trade reforms having unintended negative effects.     

Democracy and the press: A comparative analysis of pluralism in the international print media

The relationship between democracy and press pluralism is assessed in seven countries: China, Colombia, Egypt, Germany, India, Lithuania, and Russia. The term “pluralism” is defined as the extent to which diverse and competing views appear in the content of the mainstream press on a given news topic. Content analysis of 2,172 articles from the 10 largest newspapers in each country, published in the first months after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, is used to evaluate the level of press pluralism. The main indicator of democracy is based on data from the Freedom House organization, though other democracy indexes are considered. Previous studies have offered conflicting views on the relationship between democracy and press pluralism. Although this study finds mixed results, the general tendency, which is based on 10 major news issues surrounding the events of 9/11, supports the perspective that democracy is not always positively associated with press pluralism. Much of the debate over 9/11 in countries ranked as highly democratic was less pluralistic than in countries with weaker democratic institutions.     

前车之覆 后车之鉴——对苏东前社会主义国家改革失败原因与教训的再认识

苏东前社会主义国家的改革前后经历40余年,出现了三次浪潮,在取得巨大成就的同时却犯下了严重错误,最终走向失败.这主要是由于其实行了错误的改革路线,党内特权、腐败现象也导致了民心丧失,最终使改革失去了群众基础,同时也是西方敌对势力推行"和平演变"战略的结果.现有社会主义国家尤其是我们中国要吸取其教训,从改革的指导思想、策略原则、和谐环境构建等方面取得突破,确保改革顺利进行.     

我国农村腐败现象的发生机理及其规避机制探究

正处于社会转型期的我国农村地区,腐败现象极为严重,屡禁不止,并在一定程度上有失控态势。这既是人性自私动机驱使的结果,也存在文化方面的原因,同时制度和法制的漏洞也为基层腐化留下了极大的空间。要有效地整治农村基层腐败,需要建立健全预防和惩处腐败体系,把对人性和社会风气的正确引导与民主制度建设、完善监管体系、加大惩处力度等有机结合起来,多管齐下,从而遏制腐败的滋生蔓延。     

Calculable Power: A Case Study of IMF Quotas and Voting Rights Reform*

Voting procedure is an important mechanism for public choice in collective bodies such as international organizations. This paper measures and compares IMF member countries’ voting power before the 2008 reform and after the 2010 reform on the basis of datasets on IMF quotas and voting rights distribution provided by IMF. Our study verifies that IMF’s quotas and voting rights reforms do help to reduce the voting power gap among member countries. The 2008 and 2010 reforms produce a greater improvement in emerging members’ voting power under the 70 percent majority rule than the 85 percent rule; the 70 percent majority rule means the United States would lose its absolute veto. Moreover, the paper disproves the underlying assumption that regards a member’s voting power as proportional to its voting rights. Countries with different amounts of voting rights can still have the same voting power.     

腐败经历与腐败感知:基于调查实验与直接提问的双重检验

本文采用“列举实验法”来解决测量腐败经历时的社会意愿偏差问题，提出两个核心发现：与没有腐败经历的个体相比，有过腐败经历的个体会更倾向于认为政府是腐败的，同时认为政府的反腐败能力更弱，对政府的反腐败满意度也更低；腐败经历对腐败感知的影响在不同层级的政府中有差异，与中央政府相比，腐败经历对地方政府的腐败感知和反腐败评价影响更强烈。民众可以绕过间接因素直接获得对腐败的认知，因此，要改善民众对政府腐败和反腐败的主观态度，提升获得感，仅仅靠舆论和宣传是不够的，只有切实解决与老百姓生活密切的腐败问题，才能真正赢得反腐败的胜利。     

Sources of Corruption in Authoritarian Regimes*

Objectives. We seek to investigate the determinants of corruption in authoritarian polities. We hypothesize that corruption in nondemocratic settings will be greater where the ruling group is personalistic rather than a political party or a military clique and that it will be greater where rulers expect to remain in power longer. We construct a new operationalization of the selectorate theory advanced by Bueno de Mesquita et al. Methods. We use cross‐sectional statistical analysis (OLS) to examine a sample of 40‐odd authoritarian regimes as of 2000. Results. Our results indicate that personalistic and personalistic‐hybrid regimes are more prone to corruption than single‐party and military regimes and also that rulers who expect to remain in power for longer are less corrupt. Corroborating previous studies, we document that the availability of natural resources and higher levels of institutionalized autocracy are associated with greater corruption and that wealthier countries experience less corruption. Our results are consistent with previous studies, including that of Bueno de Mesquita et al., but because of our reconstruction of selectorate theory in terms of real‐world regime types, they are more easily interpretable. Conclusions. Our study sheds light on why African countries are so notoriously corrupt. The personalistic authoritarian regimes that have arisen there in the postcolonial period appear especially prone to corruption, whereas military and single‐party dictatorships are less corrupt.     

The transfer of arms and the diffusion of democracy: do arms promote or undermine the “third wave”?

The post–Cold War world has witnessed a proliferation of countries governed by democratic rule. Consequently, optimism has arisen about the prospects for the spread of freedom along with democratic peace and prosperity. Along these lines, many democratic countries have made the active promotion of democracy an explicit goal and a condition for third world countries’ assistance. However, such intentions may be threatened by the ever-present arms trade. Not only do arms transfers play a key role in the foreign policies of many democratic countries, but many developing countries continue to purchase arms from abroad at a steady rate. From the perspective of the developing recipients, this study seeks to empirically assess the impact of the arms trade on democratization. To this end, this paper utilizes an exploratory data technique, locally weighted scatterplot smoother (LOWESS) to examine data for developing countries between 1982 and 1992. By exploring graphically the patterns and distributions revealed by these indicators, the implications of the international arms trade for the spread of democracy are assessed.     

The Universal Decline of Universality? Social Policy Change in Canada,Denmark, Sweden and the UK

The debate about the future of universal social programmes has been raging for years, both in social‐democratic and in liberal welfare states. The objective of this article is to contribute to the literature on universality by analyzing the evolution of universal social programmes in two social‐democratic and two liberal countries: Denmark, Sweden, Canada and the UK. This choice of countries provides the opportunity to investigate whether the principle and practice of universality has fared differently both within and between countries. The analysis focuses primarily on the national level while exploring three policy areas: pensions, healthcare and family policy, specifically child benefits and day care. The main conclusion of our comparative analysis is clear: among our two liberal and two social‐democratic countries, the institutional strength of universality varies greatly from one policy area and one country to another. Considering this, there is no such a thing as a universal decline of universality.     

Do economic growth and institutional quality reduce poverty and inequality in West Africa?

Over the past two decades, the West African region has experienced much faster economic growth than other parts of the world. However, despite this economic upturn, the region has continued to experience high levels of inequality and poverty, yet economic growth is considered to be one of the main drivers of poverty reduction. An interesting literature indicates that local conditions may limit the expected effects of economic growth on poverty and income inequality. In this study, we are interested in the role of institutional factors that have been largely ignored in explaining poverty reduction and inequality outcomes in this region. Thus, this study empirically examines the role of economic growth and institutional quality on inequality and poverty reduction in West Africa. Using data from the World Development Indicators (WDI), the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID), our results show that economic growth remains a necessary condition for poverty reduction and that the overall improvement in the quality of institutions contributes significantly to reducing poverty and income inequality in the long term. This contribution is made in particular through the improvement of democratic institutions, the alleviation of bureaucratic constraints, the quality of the judicial and regulatory system, the control of corruption and the quality of government stability. Furthermore, we show that improvements in the judicial system, low levels of corruption and better bureaucratic quality happen to be prerequisites for economic growth to significantly reduce income inequality. These results therefore call on policy makers in the West African region to improve their institutional framework and especially these dimensions with a view to enabling the region citizens to improve their living conditions.     

Continental Drift: On Unemployment Policy Change in Bismarckian Welfare States

This article analyses the development of unemployment policies over the past 20 years in four continental European countries: Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. It shows that, far from being as ‘frozen’ as many analysts have suggested, each of these Bismarckian welfare states has in fact seen considerable change in this policy sector in recent decades. In Belgium, France and Germany, significant changes in unemployment policy reforms have unfolded gradually, through an accumulation of small changes. This finding offers some support to recent theorizing on the potential for policy changes that are both incremental and transformative. However, while such processes have led to shifts in unemployment policy that are far from negligible, the article also argues that they fall short of those seen in this policy sector in other welfare institutional contexts as well as in the Netherlands, where substantive reforms have in the last decade been complemented with changes to the institutional framework for unemployment policy. Through its analysis of the relationship between the institutional features of these welfare states and the possibility frontier of unemployment policy reform, the article develops a nuanced perspective on the scope for and resistance to social policy change in continental Europe.     

Development and pollution in the Middle East and North Africa: Democracy matters

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are among the world’s top emitters of CO₂ and SO₂ in per capita terms. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether investing in the democratic development of these countries is an effective tool to make the economic development in this region more environmentally compatible. Using panel data on the income-emission-democracy nexus in 17 MENA countries from 1980 to 2005, we find evidence that improvements in the democratic development of the MENA countries help to mitigate environmental problems. Our results clearly show that the quality of democratic institutions has a greater influence on local environmental problems than on global environmental issues in the MENA region.     

Financial development,institutional improvement,poverty reduction: The multiple challenges in West Africa

Poverty continues to be one of the biggest difficulties confronting humanity today, and eradicating poverty has become one of the most difficult tasks facing developing countries in their drive for long-term development. Accordingly, this study assesses the moderating role of institutional quality (measured by rule of law, regulation quality, control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability, and voice and accountability) in the finance-poverty nexus for a sample of 16 West African countries spanning 2002–2019. The findings show that finance (represented by domestic credit, and money supply) reduces poverty; however, the weak institutional quality reduces the positive effect of finance on poverty reduction. The study establishes that the institutional quality thresholds at which domestic credit could reduce poverty are: rule of law (0.6), regulation quality (0.1), control of corruption (1.6), government effectiveness (0.1), and political stability (0.3) on the scale of ?2.5–2.5. Finally, the institutional quality thresholds at which money supply could reduce poverty are: rule of law (2.5), regulation quality (0.3), control of corruption (2.0), government effectiveness (1.5), and political stability (1.4) on the scale of ?2.5–2.5, whilst the interaction effect of domestic credit, money supply, and voice and accountability were insignificant. The study concludes that policymakers must enhance the institutional environment in West Africa to boost financial development to reduce poverty.     

Does globalization drive long-run inequality within OECD countries? A guide to policy making

We analyse around four decades of annual time-series data revisiting the long-run relationship between globalization and income inequality for 24 OECD member countries across different geographical regions, applying the Yamamoto-Kurozumi multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) framework. We observe that rapid globalization is not the key cause of rising long-run intra country inequality. This result is obtained by controlling for growth, terms of trade, minimum wage legislation, and unionization and found robust by further controlling education. Most of the countries in our study with a long-run relationship reveal the robust reverse causal impact of rising globalization on reducing inequality. Our impulse response breakdown across various sub-components of globalization suggests that economic globalization is not a primary contributor to long-run inequality for developed industrialized countries. Our framework guides future research to concentrate more on country-specific relationships, with policy guidance tailored for each country based on their level of economic development and institutional quality.     

The divergent logics of labour market reforms in times of permanent austerity

In an age of ‘permanent austerity’, growing economic insecurity may increase the demand for protection against labour market risks. At the same time, economic pressures may push governments to scale down on the provision of social protection. In this article, this contradiction is examined by focusing on reforms of two labour market institutions: unemployment benefits and employment protection legislation. It is argued that the incidence of reforms of both institutions follows a different set of logics, depending on the type of economic pressures as well as the political and institutional settings. The article makes use of a new data set on labour market reforms in 14 European countries over the period of 1980–2007. Results from discrete‐time logit‐regression analysis support the main hypotheses that (1) reforming unemployment benefits (UBs) does not follow the same logic as reforming employment protection legislation (EPL), and (2) factors that contribute to expansion/regulation are not the reverse of those that lead to retrenchment/deregulation.     

Marketisation policies in different contexts: Consequences for home‐care workers in Germany,Japan and Sweden

Market‐oriented restructurings of long‐term care policies contribute significantly to the aggravation of care workers’ situations. This article focuses on the effects of broader long‐term care policy developments on market‐oriented reforms. Germany, Japan and Sweden are three countries that have introduced market‐oriented reforms into home‐based care provision embedded in distinct long‐term care policy developments. Conceptually, this article draws on comparative research on care to define the institutional dimensions of long‐term care policies. Empirically, the research is based on policy analyses, as well as on national statistics and a comparative research project on home‐care workers in the aforementioned countries. The findings reveal the mediating impact of the extension and decline of long‐term public care support and the corresponding development of the care infrastructure on both the restructuring of care work and the assessments of the care workers themselves.     

我国政府预算透明度的考量和提升

在现代民主国家,政府预算的透明度具有重要意义,因为它在一定程度上代表着一国的民主程度。1990年代以来,通过以部门预算为主导的一系列预算改革,我国预算透明度有所提高,但按照国际标准考量,仍处于较低水平。在当前的政治和经济条件下,可以考虑着重从界定清晰的政府范围、严格预算外资金管理和推进部门预算等方面改进。