Rising Age at Marriage and Fertility in Southern and Eastern Africa

This paper examines the trends in marriage and fertility in nine countries of southern and eastern Africa using DHS data. First, some background about the age at marriage, age at first birth and the proportion of premarital first births is shown. Next, the total fertility is decomposed into its pre- and post-marital parts. Then, pre- and post-marital fertility are examined in more detail. Finally, the effect of rising age at marriage on the fertility declines is measured. It is estimated that around one sixth to one third of the fertility declines are due to rising age at marriage.     

The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries

We examine how strongly fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy instruments on fertility, using macro panel data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982–2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence on average, suggesting that the combination of these forms of support for working parents during their children’s early years is likely to facilitate parents’ choice to have children. Policy levers do not all have the same weight, however: in-cash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the provision of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Moreover, we find that the influence of each policy measure varies across different family policy contexts. Our findings are robust after controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time-lagged fertility reactions and for different aspects of national contexts, such as female labour market participation, unemployment, labour market protection and the proportion of children born out of marriage.     

Family Policies and Fertility in Norway

We address the relationship between family policies and fertility in Norway, including three somewhat different policies: parental leave, formal childcare, and the childcare cash benefit. We use administrative register data covering the period 1995–2004. Norwegian family policies are designed both to improve reconciliation of work and family and to improve childcare choices for parents. The analysis shows different patterns of work–family reconciliation and fertility choices among one-child couples and two-child couples. The parental leave policy is the most influential of the three policies on second-birth intensities, especially if parental leave is also taken by the father. The introduction of the childcare cash benefit is most influential on third-birth intensities. This means that policies that promote paternal involvement in childcare and gender equality are positively associated with second births, while policies giving more general family support are positively associated with third births.     

Marriage Migration Versus Family Reunification: How Does the Marriage and Migration History Affect the Timing of First and Second Childbirth Among Turkish Immigrants in Germany?

Our study focuses on the fertility of first-generation female and male Turkish migrants in Germany. To evaluate whether timing effects such as fertility disruption or an interrelation of marriage, migration and childbirth occur, we examine first and second births in the years before and after immigration to Germany. The Turkish sample of the Generations and Gender Survey which was conducted in 2006 offers the unique opportunity to examine Turkish immigrants as a single immigrant category. We question the common understanding that Turkish immigrants who arrived to Germany after 1973 mainly arrived for family reunification resulting in high birth intensities immediately after immigration. To distinguish different circumstances under which male and female immigrants have arrived to Germany, we include the combined marriage and migration history of the couple. We find that first birth probabilities are elevated during the years immediately following migration. But this effect is not universal among migrants with different marriage and migration histories. It appears that the arrival effect of high birth intensities is particularly high among female immigrants and is evident only among marriage migrants, that is Turks who married a partner who already lived in Germany at the time of the wedding. By contrast, among those who immigrated for family reunification, we do not find such an arrival effect.     

三论中国生育政策的系统模拟与比较选择——兼论"一代独生子女"政策"自着陆"

通过对全国和30个省区未来51种生育方案近百年模拟和对人口数量控制、年龄结构改善利弊得失的对比权衡可知,与2020年开始实行一代独生子女政策相比,尽快二孩方案在人口年龄结构上并没有显著优势,而它们的分年龄人口数和人口总量将会有较大差异,前者将稳定在一个适中的或较小的规模上,后者将稳定在一个庞大的规模上.研究生育政策,制定人口战略,既要考虑年龄结构不要过度老化,也要考虑年龄结构相对稳定;既要追求战术性的阶段性优势,更要追求战略性的久远性优势.结合中国已有的大规模人口和年龄结构优化的总体要求,可以选择在2020年实行大、中口径的一代独生子女政策.此项政策在公平性、可行性和可操作性上具有九大优点,可以平稳地实现我国计划生育的"自着陆".     

Differences in Delaying Motherhood Across European Countries: Empirical Evidence from the ECHP

Motherhood postponement and fertility decline have been observed in almost all developed countries. In this article, we aim to assess some of the potential determinants of first childbirth timing in Europe, in a comparative perspective, using data from the European Community Household Panel Survey (ECHP). We estimate, separately by country, hazard rates for the timing at first childbirth conditioning to education and work characteristics. Moreover, in order to explain differences between European countries, we decompose the differences between rates in the part due to the national population composition by specific characteristics and the part due to different propensities for women with given characteristics.     

Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe

Cross-country differences in both the age at first birth and fertility are substantial in Europe. This paper uses distinct fluctuations in unemployment rates across European countries during the 1980s and the 1990s combined with broad differences in their labor market arrangements to analyze the associations between fertility timing and the changing economic environment with close to 50,000 women from 13 European countries. First, it employs time-varying measures of aggregate market conditions in each woman??s country as covariates and second, it adds micro-measures of each woman??s labor market history to the models. High and persistent unemployment in a country is associated with delays in childbearing (and second births). The association is robust to diverse measures of unemployment and to controls for family-friendly policies. Besides moderate unemployment, a large public employment sector (which provides security and benefits) is coupled with faster transitions to all births. Women with temporary contracts, mostly in Southern Europe, are the least likely to give birth to a second child.     

妇女当家会强化低生育水平吗?——一项关于家庭权力与生育决策的实证研究

妇女地位的提升对降低生育率有着重要作用。在低生育水平的湖北宜昌农村地区,数据分析表明,家庭权力在生育决策中产生重要影响,男性的生育观念更为传统,男性主导家庭权力可以提高家庭的生育意愿,而女性拥有越来越自主的生育决策权力以及更理性的、以核心家庭幸福为准则的生育观,但在这部分地区,没有证据显示妇女当家会直接降低生育率。因此,在妇女家庭权力日渐提升的趋势下,为防范极低生育水平、提升农村家庭的发展能力、为妇女生育提供良好的家庭支持和社会支持环境尤为重要。     

Italy’s Path to Very Low Fertility: The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.     

The Possible Effects of Child Survival on Women's Ages at First Union and Childbirth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improvements in childsurvival may lead to lower fertility throughseveral pathways. To date, most studies havefocused on the physiological and replacementeffects, whose impacts are known to be modestin size. Few have examined the potentially moreimportant insurance effect on fertility withinunion, and almost none have considered thepossible relationship between child mortalityand marriage, which could also grow out of aninsurance strategy. In this study, we use datafrom 21 sub-Saharan African countries to assessthe relationship between child mortality andyoung women's ages at first marriage andchildbirth. The results show that lower levelsof mortality are strongly associated with latermarriages and first births, even aftercontrolling for the effects of a large numberof other variables. The implications of thefindings are discussed and alternativeexplanations for this relationship arepresented.     

How Similar are Cohabiting and Married Parents? Second Conception Risks by Union Type in the United States and Across Europe

The increase in births within cohabitation in the United States and across Europe suggests that cohabitation and marriage have become more similar with respect to childbearing. However, little is known about additional childbearing after first birth. Using harmonized union and fertility histories from surveys in 15 countries, this study examines second conception risks leading to a live birth for women who have given birth within a union. Results show that women who continue to cohabit after birth have significantly lower second conception risks than married women in all countries except those in Eastern Europe, even when controlling for union duration, union dissolution, age at first birth, and education. Pooled models indicate that differences in the second conception risks by union type between Eastern and Western Europe are significant. Pooled models including an indicator for the diffusion of cohabitation show that when first births within cohabitation are rare, cohabiting women have significantly lower second conception risks than married women. As first births within cohabitation increase, differences in second conception risks for cohabiting and married women narrow. But as the percent increases further, the differentials increase again, suggesting that cohabitation and marriage are not becoming equivalent settings for additional childbearing. However, I also find that in all countries except Estonia, women who marry after first birth have second conception risks similar to couples married at first birth, indicating that the sequence of marriage and childbearing does not matter to fertility as much as the act of marrying itself.     

Children’s Sex and the Happiness of Parents

Demographers are interested in sex preferences for children because they can skew sex ratios and influence population-level fertility, parenting behavior, and family outcomes. Based on parity progression ratios, in most European countries, there are no sex preferences for a first child, but a strong preference for mixed-sex children. We hypothesize that mixed-sex preferences also influence parental happiness. Parents’ disappointment with a second child of the same sex as the first could have negative effects for parents and children. We use longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and the British Household Panel Study to examine parental happiness by the children’s sex and analyze whether these effects differ by parent’s sex, age, nativity, and educational attainment. The results are only partially consistent with predictions from parity progression ratios. As expected, parental happiness does not depend on the sex of the first child. We find weak evidence suggesting that two boys decrease happiness, but the findings are not consistent across German and British data or across subpopulations. Moreover, two girls do not reduce happiness. Although sex preferences influence fertility, they appear to have little impact on happiness, perhaps because of unobserved positive factors associated with having same-sex children.     

Uncertainty and the Second Space: Modern Birth Timing and the Dilemma of Education

This paper focuses on the relationship between experiential and statistical uncertainties in the timing of births in Cameroon (Central Africa). Most theories of fertility level and change emphasize the emergence of parity-specific control, treating desired family size as both central, and stable across the life course. By contrast, this paper argues for a theory of reproduction that emphasizes process, social context, and contingency. The paper concentrates on the second birth interval, showing that it is longer and more variable among educated than among uneducated women. The paper argues that this difference is due to the specific forms of uncertainty associated with education in contemporary Cameroon.     

Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe

The realisation rates of short-term childbearing intentions are known to be consistently lower in post-socialist countries than in the rest of Europe. However, the East–West differences in the outcomes of intentions to postpone or forego (further) childbearing have not been previously examined. We employ two panel waves of the Generations and Gender Survey in six countries (three from Eastern and three from Western Europe), and, based on the short- and long-term fertility intentions expressed by respondents at the first survey wave, we classify the births occurring between two waves as intended, sooner-than-intended, or unintended. We find that in our study population of non-teenage respondents who had the same partner at both survey waves and a child between the two survey waves, between around 10% (Western European countries) and 30% (Eastern European countries) experienced an unintended or a sooner-than-intended birth. The East–West divide is largely driven by the share of unintended parents which is clearly higher in the post-socialist countries. However, the geographical pattern fades away once we control for the anticipated costs of having a child. Our study gives insight into East–West differences in attitudes to childbearing and into how they affect reproductive behaviour. It also offers methodological improvements of cross-national panel surveys designed to examine childbearing intentions that would allow for a more accurate assessment of childbearing intendedness.     

Impact of Induced Abortion on Fertility in Romania

The topic of induced abortion as a method of birth control in the formersocialist European countries has been a subject of broad debate. Legal or illegal abortion, depending on legislation restrictions, was widely used in periods when people had reduced control over their reproductive life. Romania, a former socialist country, is an interesting case to study because of the very dramatic swings in its abortion policies coupled with important changes in available contraceptive methods associated with the fall of the Soviet Empire. The study investigates the impact of induced abortion on the risks of first-, second- and third-order births in Romania during the last 35 years, using data from the Reproductive Health Survey, Romania, 2004. The legalization of abortion in 1990, after two decades of total prohibition, had an immediate effect on second- and third-order births, but it contributed less to the decrease of primo-fertility. Investigations regarding the “first and second demographic transition” that initially involved women desiring fewer children and then women modifying the timing of those births show changes in the use of abortion to achieve birth plans. The effect of abortion on fertility has decreased over time.     

国外生育意愿研究经验对国内相关研究的启示与反思

发达国家第一次人口转变、第二次人口转变均早于中国,在生育意愿研究领域积累了丰富的经验。首先是生育意愿概念、测量方法以及生育意愿特性界定上比较科学合理。其次在理论分析框架上,从生育意愿的计划行为理论,到生育意愿变动的生育周期控制理论,构建了完备的理论分析体系。三是基于理论指导,深刻分析文化规范、经济因素、职业冲突、家庭权利分配等对生育意愿的影响,避免了将一些人口学特征、家庭特征统一归为影响因素。而这些值得借鉴的研究成果恰恰为国内学者所忽略,由于国内生育意愿测量方法的不科学,也导致生育意愿对未来生育水平的预测能力大大降低。     

The potential impact of improvements in contraception on fertility and abortion in western countries

Survey information on fertility intentions, patterns of contraceptive use, contraceptive failures and abortions is used to develop estimates of unwanted births and of unplanned pregnancies for seven countries, by method of contraception. Potential improvements in contraception, leading to more use of highly efficient methods are considered, and several scenarios for improved contraceptive use are presented. The impact each would have on fertility levels and on abortion rates is estimated. Although improvements in contraception will have only a limited impact on fertility — which is already very low — their impact on abortion could be considerable     

Deferment of the First Birth and Fluctuating Fertility in Sweden

In Sweden, as in other industrialized countries, a decades-old decline in fertility rates has been accompanied by a rise in the age at first birth. In contrast to other industrialized countries, however, fertility rates rose sharply in the 1980s before plummeting in the 1990s. In this paper we apply hazard regression to data from the 1992 Swedish Family Survey, supplemented by annual earnings data linked to individuals and by annual time series of national-level economic indicators, to investigate the predictors of the timing of the first birth of women in Sweden since the mid-1960s. The discovery that both individual characteristics and aggregate-level factors influence the timing of the first birth casts light on both the continuing trend of postponement of the first birth and annual fluctuations in first-birth rates.     

企业女职工生育保障状况调查研究——以福建省为例

通过对福建省九个地市区不同所有制企业的女职工生育保障状况的调查,发现这些企业女职工生育保障状况喜忧参半,一部分企业按照法规较好地保障了女职工的生育权益,但仍有不少企业没有落实生育期特殊劳动保护和生育保险制度,侵害了女职工的生育权益。其原因在于政府相关部门监督职能不到位,企业决策层性别意识、法律意识不强,企业工会、女工委作用发挥不够,女职工法律意识不强、自我保护意识较差等。应针对其原因采取相应对策,以有效改善企业女职工生育保障状况。