An Extension of the Conventional TFR

The period-based total fertility rate is probably the most commonly used single measure of a population??s fertility level, but it has the disadvantage that it only controls for the population??s age distribution and not for any other subdividing feature, such as the parity distribution, ethnic composition, or educational attainment. This may lead the TFR to change because the population composition changes, even when the underlying fertility remains constant in each population sub-group. In the present contribution, we use elementary event-history methods to show how one can easily control the TFR against a change in the population??s distribution across any selected subdivision. We use the data of the Romanian Gender and Generations Survey of 2005 to illustrate how this can be done.     

Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe

Cross-country differences in both the age at first birth and fertility are substantial in Europe. This paper uses distinct fluctuations in unemployment rates across European countries during the 1980s and the 1990s combined with broad differences in their labor market arrangements to analyze the associations between fertility timing and the changing economic environment with close to 50,000 women from 13 European countries. First, it employs time-varying measures of aggregate market conditions in each woman??s country as covariates and second, it adds micro-measures of each woman??s labor market history to the models. High and persistent unemployment in a country is associated with delays in childbearing (and second births). The association is robust to diverse measures of unemployment and to controls for family-friendly policies. Besides moderate unemployment, a large public employment sector (which provides security and benefits) is coupled with faster transitions to all births. Women with temporary contracts, mostly in Southern Europe, are the least likely to give birth to a second child.     

The Total Marital Fertility Rate and Its Extensions

What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed conventionally by adding up age-specific marital fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout her childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, and we propose an alternative duration-based TMFR computed in the spirit of parity-progression ratios. At the same time, we extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement (cohabitation, marriage, non-partnered arrangement, and so on). Because each resulting total union-type fertility rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the conventional total fertility rate (TFR), which does not. We embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates and find patterns of relative risks for such variables that reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior in the Romanian data, which we use to illustrate the method. In most cases, these patterns are quite robust against model re-specification, including the shift from the age-based to the duration-based approach. Since, the number of female respondents is ??only?? about 6,000 (minus records that cannot be used for the current purpose) in a normal single-round GGS, there is considerable inherent random variation in the data set, but we show that simple few-term moving average graduation suffices to overcome this problem.     

Navigating New Socio-Demographic Landscapes: Using Anthropological Demography to Understand the ‘Persistence’ of High and Early Fertility Among British Pakistanis

British Pakistanis continue to have earlier and higher fertility than other ethnic groups in the UK, despite a recent rise in educational and employment opportunities for British Pakistani women. In this paper we present findings from an interview-based study with 91 British Pakistani women and men in the Northeast of England, in order to throw some light on the reproductive choices and constraints that underlie this apparent demographic anomaly. Drawing on detailed reproductive narratives, we show that, contrary to common assumptions within the literature, relatively high and early fertility does not necessarily indicate a passive acceptance of ??cultural norms?? or a reluctance to engage with new social and economic opportunities. For some young women at least, early motherhood represents a deliberate and strategic choice: a way of managing different sets of family-building and other aspirations, embedded within a complex interplay of relationships between individuals, couples and wider families. This study contributes to the emerging ??inter-discipline?? of anthropological demography, which offers important insights into population processes that neither discipline can do alone.     

新媒体时代传统报纸的出路探讨

从网络媒体到4G移动媒体,随着新媒体不断涌现,其优势也越来越明显,改变了人们对信息的需求内容和需求方式,瓜分着传统报纸的受众,分享了传统报纸的内容和盈利,对传统报纸形成了巨大的冲击。＂纸媒消亡＂＂报业危机＂等言论甚嚣尘上。在这样一个新媒体蓬勃发展的时代,传统报纸已经势微,但是新媒体并不完美,报纸便取长补短,通过重新定位,并对相应职责、功能、管理和媒介融合等问题进行改革和探索,寻找自己的生存空间和发展出路。     

Deliberate Birth Spacing in Nineteenth Century Northern Sweden

Fertility in nineteenth century Europe before the fertility transition has been described as high, unregulated, and stable; the extent of fertility control remains a controversial topic. The aim of this study is to determine whether there is evidence of deliberate birth spacing in northern Sweden prior to the onset of the fertility transition. This study analyses micro-level parish records of 9,636 women in nineteenth century northern Sweden??a remote but, at the time, economically dynamic frontier region of Sweden. Event history analysis reveals evidence of birth spacing that suggests some conscious birth control. Piecewise exponential models of the transition from second to third birth reveal circumstances in which parents increased or decreased the time to next birth. The results on the survival of previous children, geographic context, sex of previous children, and variations in grain prices all indicate that parents deliberately manipulated the spacing between births.     

The Parenthood Happiness Puzzle: An Introduction to Special Issue

Contrary to conventional wisdom, recent studies argue that parenthood is not necessarily related to higher parental subjective well-being (SWB). However, parenthood remains an important aspect of adults’ lives, also in highly developed societies where childbearing has become optional, financially expensive and affecting other goals in life. Whereas a great deal of effort has been put into answering why fertility is low in so many developed countries, one may even ask why is it not even lower. The answer is not obvious but stems from the fact that, to date, the relationship between fertility and SWB has been understudied and the mechanisms at work are not well understood. This special issue makes a step forward in this line of research, providing a coherent set of papers addressing different dimensions of the relationship between fertility and SWB and its mechanisms, starting from a demographic perspective, but integrating theories and research results from other disciplines. The collection of papers assesses the effect of the birth of a child on the individual SWB from angles still unexplored with the idea that the effects of fertility on individuals’ SWB are diverse depending on individual, couple and country contextual factors.     

文化在多媒介交互中产生新的文本意义

随着数字化时代的到来,新媒介和旧媒介不断地开放、吸收,媒介间的交融和互补现象越来越凸显,"媒介间性"得到前所未有的生长,一种崭新的、潜力巨大的媒介生产"意义链"呈现在人们面前。"媒介间性"拓宽了单一媒介的意义空间,不断衍生出新的文化产品,对文化资源的深度加工、再利用和多元生产起了积极的推动作用。     

论媒介技术与人的环境建构——对莱文森媒介技术哲学的推进

传统媒介环境学认为媒介技术建构人的认知环境。莱文森一方面改造媒介决定论,维护媒介环境的基本观点,另一方面指出人建构媒介技术的演化环境,两种建构作用同时存在。莱文森的人与媒介互相建构的条件有所不足,且没有指出互相建构的机制。“人性化趋势”的人建构媒介的条件不只是符合个体的生物本能,而且符合群体的共性和对利益最大化的追求;另外,人建构媒介的条件还包括“综合准则”。媒介建构人的条件除了媒介特性起作用外,还包括合适的材料与支撑技术。人与媒介互相建构的机制是:媒介控制与认知调控形成控制增则调控增、调控增则控制减、控制减则调控减、调控减则控制增的自调控循环。     

中国媒介批评学的世界性视野

中国媒介批评学体系的原创与建设,作为近30年来传播学中国化追求的一个突破口,其意义极为重大。而中国媒介批评学体系的建设,不仅要立足于中国文化的土壤,面向中国的媒介传播实践,更要努力追求这一颇具探索性的批评体系具有更加开阔的世界眼光,更加具有普遍性的意义和价值。那么,这种价值的理论基点和核心性构成是什么？我们从对东西方两大文明的历史回溯中发现,以人为本不仅是西方文艺复兴以来世界文明的基本精神,而且实际上更是中国传统文化相对稳定的价值观。本文将重点探讨“人文精神”何以具有世界性的意义,并详细阐述其对中国媒介批评学体系以及对整个世界传播学发展的潜在价值。     

Religion and Fertility in Contemporary Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has been and continues to be deeply divided on the basis of religion. This paper examines and compares contemporary fertility in the two communities given the sharp declines that have occurred in recent decades. The data are drawn from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study and cover 108,000 women aged 16–44 in the period 1997–2007. A logit analysis of births in the period is undertaken based on individual demographic data and also the characteristics of the locality in which the woman is resident. The effect of religion is measured by its individual marginal effect averaged over the total sample, over time and by the age of the woman. The estimated average marginal effect is 4 % of the probability of a woman having a birth over the entire period. The effect peaks when the woman is between 29 and 30 years and is stable over time. When the fertility behaviour of each religious group is compared separately with those women that came from the same background but had lost their religion, it is found to differ substantially. Thus, community background is rejected as a possible explanation of the difference in fertility between declared Catholics and Protestants. Although the fertility rates of former Catholics and Protestants appear to be converging, the size of these groups is relatively small. There is no evidence to suggest that the small but distinct difference in the fertility rates of the two religious communities is likely to change in the immediate future.     

论央视评论员的“第三种话语方式”——以《新闻1＋1》为例

信息社会的发展,使得信息越来越难以被垄断,新闻无法被独家占有,然而对于新闻的解读却可以独树一帜。新闻评论越来越多地出现在了各级电视台节目中,成为媒体宣扬自身独特报道角度的窗口,也成为正确舆论导向的标杆。与此同时,媒体的监督功能也日益发展和显现。然而,在当下,怎样的评论方式更适合于现有体制,如何更有分寸地进行负面新闻评论,都值得我们深思。本文评析了中央电视台《新闻1＋1》节目主持人的评论风格,探讨了区别于官方与民间的＂第三种话语方式＂。     

Choosing to Remain Childless? A Comparative Study of Fertility Intentions Among Women and Men in Italy and Britain

Pathways to childlessness may differ not only between individuals but also at the population level. This paper investigates differences in childlessness by comparing two countries—Britain and Italy—where levels of childlessness are high in comparison with many other European countries, but which have distinct fertility trajectories and family regimes. Using data from two large, representative national samples of women and men of reproductive age in a co-residential partnership, it presents a rich analysis of the characteristics associated with intended childlessness, net of the aspects associated with being childless at interview. Although childlessness intentions are generally comparable between men and women of the same age, results show a link between socio-economic disadvantage and childlessness for British men as well as the importance of men’s employment for childbearing decisions in Italy. These findings support the view that pathways into childlessness are gendered and highlight the importance of partnership context in the understanding of fertility intentions. Then, the level of childlessness at interview is comparable across the two countries. However, a higher proportion of respondents in Italy is only provisionally childless, whereas a larger proportion of British respondents intends to remain childless. Framing these differences in fertility intentions within the wider context of family and fertility regimes allows insight into the extent to which observed levels of lifetime childlessness at the population level might result from a specific combination of intended childlessness, postponed decisions leading to involuntary childlessness, or constraints affecting abilities to achieve intentions at the individual level.     

Value changes and the dimensions of familism in the European community

It is argued in this article that family formation is conditioned not only by economic factors (more particularly, opportunity structures), but also by ideational changes: the economic factors produce period fluctuations that are superimposed on long-term (and often cohort-driven) ideational effects. Value orientations are explored and compared across countries and across age groups using the internationally-comparable data sets provided by the European Values Studies. The analysis indicates the existence of two latent dimensions with respect to familism: tolerance of non-conformism in family formation, and the meaning attached to parenthood. These two dimensions are not completely distinct from each other though, and both are related to religious and political variables (religiosity, ‘post-materialism’, nationalism, leftism, etc.). Theoretical links are made both with Easterlin's hypothesis which implies fluctuating fertility levels and with Simon's thesis concerning the importance of ‘civil religion’ in supporting fertility. The results are, however, largely in line with Ariès' thesis of two successive and quite distinct fertility transitions in the West, and suggest that fertility is very likely to remain at below-replacement levels.     

文学经典的生成谱系与传播机制

文学经典的生成是一个同时在时间和空间中展开的、持续不断地传播和被接受的过程。在此传播过程中,既有纯文学、纯学术的要素贯注其中,又有非文学、非经典的、世俗的力量介入其间。从这个意义上说,经典不是一个文本,而是一个'场域'。在这个场域中,各种来自文学和非文学的力量形成的对话和张力使其意义得以生成、增殖和传播。在当下这个时代,我们只能从这个场域出发展开经典研究才能避免将文本细读与社会语境人为割裂的弊病,进而在文学与社会、精英与大众、商业与美学之间架起一座沟通的桥梁。     

影视的传播与文学的接受

20世纪90年代,在电子媒介扩张和纸质媒介相对萎缩的大背景下,电影、电视与文学之间的权力关系发生了根本变化。电影、电视不仅成为占主导地位的传播媒介,而且开始将其媒介产品和表达方式输出到文学领域。不论是从影视剧本到小说的写作流程、从影像叙事到文学写作的趋同,还是从影视产业链衍生出影视同期书来看,影视在这些传播活动中都是信息发布者,占有主导地位,而文学则因成为信息接受者而具有了次生性。这改变了以往从文学到影视的单向传播模式。这种角色和地位的转换是在影视与文学之间媒介关系发生根本变化的大背景下展开的,并加快了这一媒介权力重构的进程。     

引用语言历史，营造学生的学习氛围

语言不仅是一种交流工具,而且是一种传播各国文化的媒介,通过语言人们才能了解外部世界,因此,学习外国语言首先要对该国家的历史文化有所认识。学生在学习语言时有时会感到枯燥,如何调动学生学习的积极性是摆在每位老师面前的首要问题。应该说外国的文化与中国的文化一样源远流长,字里行间包含着深奥的历史文化背景,此时在课堂上穿插一些词的来历,句子的典故,势必引起学生学习的兴趣,提高他们学习的积极性。     

Religion and Fertility in Western Europe: Trends Across Cohorts in Britain,France and the Netherlands

The role of religion in explaining fertility differences is often overlooked in demographic studies, particularly in Western Europe, where there has been a substantial decline in institutional forms of religious adherence. The current study explores the changing relationships between religion and childbearing in Britain, France and the Netherlands. Using data from the Generations and Gender Programme and the British Household Panel Survey, religious differences in completed fertility and the transition to first birth are explored across cohorts of women. In addition, a longitudinal analysis is employed to examine the influence of religion on subsequent childbearing. Although the secularization paradigm assumes that the influence of religion on individual behavior will diminish over time, it is found that religious affiliation and practice continue to be important determinants of fertility and family formation patterns. However, there is some variation in the relationship between religion and fertility across countries; while in France and the Netherlands fertility gaps by religiosity are either consistent or increasing, in Britain, this gap appears to have narrowed over time. These findings suggest that fertility differences by religion also depend on the particular social context of religious institutions in each country.     

文学经典的生成谱系与传播机制

文学经典的生成是一个同时在时间和空间中展开的、持续不断地传播和被接受的过程。在此传播过程中,既有纯文学、纯学术的要素贯注其中,又有非文学、非经典的、世俗的力量介入其间。从这个意义上说,经典不是一个文本,而是一个 '场域'。在这个场域中,各种来自文学和非文学的力量形成的对话和张力使其意义得以生成、增殖和传播。在当下这个时代,我们只能从这个场域出发展开经典研究才能避免将文本细读与社会语境人为割裂的弊病,进而在文学与社会、精英与大众、商业与美学之间架起一座沟通的桥梁。     

试论超媒体时代的摄影人才培养

数字化技术已把新闻传播带入多媒体相互叠加且高度融合的多维传播的"超媒体"时代。培养传媒人才的大学摄影教育也面临着与时俱进的问题。如何与时俱进,如何改进教学观念,如何改进不合时宜的教学方案和人才培养战略,是高校摄影教育必须面对的问题。