Robust importance sampling for some typical types of utility-based shortfall risk measures using exponential twisting and kernel density techniques

A robust algorithm for utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) measures is developed by combining the kernel density estimation with importance sampling (IS) using exponential twisting techniques. The optimal bandwidth of the kernel density is obtained by minimizing the mean square error of the estimators. Variance is reduced by IS where exponential twisting is applied to determine the optimal IS distribution. Conditions for the best distribution parameters are derived based on the piecewise polynomial loss function and the exponential loss function. The proposed method not only solves the problem of sampling from the kernel density but also reduces the variance of the UBSR estimator.     

Asymptotic Unbiased Kernel Estimator for Line Transect Sampling

In this article, we propose a new estimator for the density of objects using line transect data. The proposed estimator combines the nonparametric kernel estimator with parametric detection function: the exponential or the half normal detection function to estimate the density of objects. The selection of the detection function depends on the testing of the shoulder condition assumption. If the shoulder condition is true then the half-normal detection function is introduced together with the kernel estimator. Otherwise, the negative exponential is combined with the kernel estimator. Under these assumptions, the proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased and it is strongly consistent estimator for the density of objects using line transect data. The simulation results indicate that the proposed estimator is very successful in taking the advantage of the parametric detection function available.     

Nonparametric density estimation based on beta prime kernel

Abstract

In this work, we propose beta prime kernel estimator for estimation of a probability density functions defined with nonnegative support. For the proposed estimator, beta prime probability density function used as a kernel. It is free of boundary bias and nonnegative with a natural varying shape. We obtained the optimal rate of convergence for the mean squared error (MSE) and the mean integrated squared error (MISE). Also, we use adaptive Bayesian bandwidth selection method with Lindley approximation for heavy tailed distributions and compare its performance with the global least squares cross-validation bandwidth selection method. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate the average integrated squared error (ISE) of the proposed kernel estimator against some asymmetric competitors using Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, real data sets are presented to illustrate the findings.     

Asymptotic properties of nonparametric regression for long memory random fields

The kernel estimator of spatial regression function is investigated for stationary long memory (long range dependent) random fields observed over a finite set of spatial points. A general result on the strong consistency of the kernel density estimator is first obtained for the long memory random fields, and then, under some mild regularity assumptions, the asymptotic behaviors of the regression estimator are established. For the linear long memory random fields, a weak convergence theorem is also obtained for kernel density estimator. Finally, some related issues on the inference of long memory random fields are discussed through a simulation example.     

Asymptotic Normality for Regression Function Estimate Under Truncation and α-Mixing Conditions

In this article we establish pointwise asymptotic normality of nonparametric kernel estimator of regression function for a left truncation model. It is assumed that the lifetime observations with multivariate covariates form a stationary α-mixing sequence. Also, the asymptotic normality of the estimation of the covariable's density is considered. As a by-product, we obtain a uniform weak convergence rate for the product-limit estimator of the lifetime and truncated distributions under dependence, which is interesting independently. Finite sample behavior of the estimator of the regression function is investigated as well.     

Estimating Percentiles of Time-to-Failure Distribution Obtained from a Linear Degradation Model Using Kernel Density Method

In this article, we propose a nonparametric estimator for percentiles of the time-to-failure distribution obtained from a linear degradation model using the kernel density method. The properties of the proposed kernel estimator are investigated and compared with well-known maximum likelihood and ordinary least squares estimators via a simulation technique. The mean squared error and the length of the bootstrap confidence interval are used as the basis criteria of the comparisons. The simulation study shows that the performance of the kernel estimator is acceptable as a general estimator. When the distribution of the data is assumed to be known, the maximum likelihood and ordinary least squares estimators perform better than the kernel estimator, while the kernel estimator is superior when the assumption of our knowledge of the data distribution is violated. A comparison among different estimators is achieved using a real data set.     

Smooth estimation of a monotone density

We investigate the interplay of smoothness and monotonicity assumptions when estimating a density from a sample of observations. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a decreasing density on the positive half line attains a rate of convergence of [Formula: See Text] at a fixed point t if the density has a negative derivative at t. The same rate is obtained by a kernel estimator of bandwidth [Formula: See Text], but the limit distributions are different. If the density is both differentiable at t and known to be monotone, then a third estimator is obtained by isotonization of a kernel estimator. We show that this again attains the rate of convergence [Formula: See Text], and compare the limit distributions of the three types of estimators. It is shown that both isotonization and smoothing lead to a more concentrated limit distribution and we study the dependence on the proportionality constant in the bandwidth. We also show that isotonization does not change the limit behaviour of a kernel estimator with a bandwidth larger than [Formula: See Text], in the case that the density is known to have more than one derivative.     

Asymptotic properties of the kernel mode estimator under twice censorship model

In this article, we study the asymptotic properties of the kernel estimator of the mode and density function when the data are twice censored. More specifically, we first establish a strong uniform consistency over a compact set with a rate of the kernel density estimator and then we give the consistency with rate and asymptotic normality for the kernel mode estimator. An application to confidence bands is given.     

Reducing the mean squared error in kernel density estimation

In this article, we propose a version of a kernel density estimator which reduces the mean squared error of the existing kernel density estimator by combining bias reduction and variance reduction techniques. Its theoretical properties are investigated, and a Monte Carlo simulation study supporting theoretical results on the proposed estimator is given.     

Estimation of a probability density function using interval aggregated data

ABSTRACT

In economics and government statistics, aggregated data instead of individual level data are usually reported for data confidentiality and for simplicity. In this paper we develop a method of flexibly estimating the probability density function of the population using aggregated data obtained as group averages when individual level data are grouped according to quantile limits. The kernel density estimator has been commonly applied to such data without taking into account the data aggregation process and has been shown to perform poorly. Our method models the quantile function as an integral of the exponential of a spline function and deduces the density function from the quantile function. We match the aggregated data to their theoretical counterpart using least squares, and regularize the estimation by using the squared second derivatives of the density function as the penalty function. A computational algorithm is developed to implement the method. Application to simulated data and US household income survey data show that our penalized spline estimator can accurately recover the density function of the underlying population while the common use of kernel density estimation is severely biased. The method is applied to study the dynamic of China's urban income distribution using published interval aggregated data of 1985–2010.     

Strong consistency of non parametric kernel regression estimator for strong mixing samples

For α-mixing samples, we study Priestley–Chao kernel estimator for non parametric regression model. By using the moment inequality and the exponential inequality, the strong consistency and the uniformly strong consistency of the estimator are obtained for some weak conditions.     

Central limit theorem for the variable bandwidth kernel density estimators

In this paper we study the ideal variable bandwidth kernel density estimator introduced by McKay (1993a, b) and Jones et al. (1994) and the plug-in practical version of the variable bandwidth kernel estimator with two sequences of bandwidths as in Giné and Sang (2013). Based on the bias and variance analysis of the ideal and plug-in variable bandwidth kernel density estimators, we study the central limit theorems for each of them. The simulation study confirms the central limit theorem and demonstrates the advantage of the plug-in variable bandwidth kernel method over the classical kernel method.     

A Convolution Estimator for the Density of Nonlinear Regression Observations

Abstract. The problem of estimating an unknown density function has been widely studied. In this article, we present a convolution estimator for the density of the responses in a nonlinear heterogenous regression model. The rate of convergence for the mean square error of the convolution estimator is of order n ^?1 under certain regularity conditions. This is faster than the rate for the kernel density method. We derive explicit expressions for the asymptotic variance and the bias of the new estimator, and further a data‐driven bandwidth selector is proposed. We conduct simulation experiments to check the finite sample properties, and the convolution estimator performs substantially better than the kernel density estimator for well‐behaved noise densities.     

A Semiparametric Model for Line Transect Sampling

This paper introduces an appealing semiparametric model for estimating wildlife abundance based on line transect data. The proposed method requires the existence of a parametric model and then improves the estimator using a kernel method. Properties of the resultant estimator are derived and an expression for the asymptotic mean square error (AMSE) of the estimator is given. Minimization of the AMSE leads to an explicit formula for an optimal choice of the smoothing parameter. Small-sample properties of the proposed estimator using the parametric half-normal model are investigated and compared with the classical kernel estimator using both simulations and real data. Numerical results show that improvements over the classical kernel estimator often can be realized even when the true density is far from the half-normal model.     

Large Deviations Limit Theorems for the Kernel Density Estimator

We establish pointwise and uniform large deviations limit theorems of Chernoff-type for the non-parametric kernel density estimator based on a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. The limits are well-identified and depend upon the underlying kernel and density function. We derive then some implications of our results in the study of asymptotic efficiency of the goodness-of-fit test based on the maximal deviation of the kernel density estimator as well as the inaccuracy rate of this estimate     

Comparison of Kernel Density Estimators with Assumption on Number of Modes

A data-driven bandwidth choice for a kernel density estimator called critical bandwidth is investigated. This procedure allows the estimation to have as many modes as assumed for the density to estimate. Both Gaussian and uniform kernels are considered. For the Gaussian kernel, asymptotic results are given. For the uniform kernel, an argument against these properties is mentioned. These theoretical results are illustrated with a simulation study that compares the kernel estimators that rely on critical bandwidth with another one that uses a plug-in method to select its bandwidth. An estimator that consists in estimates of density contour clusters and takes assumptions on number of modes into account is also considered. Finally, the methodology is illustrated using environment monitoring data.     

Varying kernel marginal density estimator for a positive time series

This paper analyses the large sample behaviour of a varying kernel density estimator of the marginal density of a non-negative stationary and ergodic time series that is also strongly mixing. In particular we obtain an approximation for bias, mean square error and establish asymptotic normality of this density estimator. We also derive an almost sure uniform consistency rate over bounded intervals of this estimator. A finite sample simulation shows some superiority of the proposed density estimator over the one based on a symmetric kernel.     

Asymptotic Distributions of Innovation Density Estimators in Linear Processes

In this article, we demonstrate that at a fixed point, the asymptotic distribution of the innovation density estimator is normal for stationary linear process. Also, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the global measure of the deviation of the density estimator from the expectation of the kernel innovation density (based on the true innovations) is the same as that in the case when we can observe the true innovations.     

Bandwidth selection procedures tor kernel density estimates

A crucial problem in kernel density estimates of a probability density function is the selection of the bandwidth. The aim of this study is to propose a procedure for selecting both fixed and variable bandwidths. The present study also addresses the question of how different variable bandwidth kernel estimators perform in comparison with each other and to the fixed type of bandwidth estimators. The appropriate algorithms for implementation of the proposed method are given along with a numerical simulation.The numerical results serve as a guide to determine which bandwidth selection method is most appropriate for a given type of estimator over a vide class of probability density functions, Also, we obtain a numerical comparison of the different types of kernel estimators under various types of bandwidths.     

Asymptotic Behavior of the Kernel Density Estimator from a Geometric Viewpoint

From the view of a geometric approach, we consider the problem of density estimation on the m-dimensional unit sphere by using the kernel method. The definition of the kernel estimator is motivated from the concept of the exponential map. This article shows that the asymptotic behavior of the estimator contains a geometric quantity (the sectional curvature) on the unit sphere. This implies that the behavior depends on whether the sectional curvature is positive or negative. Using observed data on normals to the orbital planes of long-period comets, numerical examples on the two-dimensional unit sphere are given.