A preliminary analysis of the present situation of China's population]

The national census conducted in 1982 provides the most up-to-date statistics on China's population. The following are some characteristics of China's population at the present time, based upon preliminary analysis: (1) The total population figure has passed the one billion mark, but the growth rate has been declining since the 1970s; (2) The population density is higher than other countries of the world, but the distribution is uneven. The percentage of the city population is low, and changes in urban and rural distribution are slow; (3) The population growth of ethnic minorities is higher than average, and the ratio of the minority population is increasing; (4) There are slightly more men than women-an impact of traditional society; (5) The age structure of the population is still young, but sharp change is in the process of developing; (6) Fertility has declined on a large scale, but is still far from reaching the goal of population control; (7) The death rate has remained at a low level for a long period of time, and average lifespan is gradually becoming prolonged; (8) The marital status has remained stable, and people normally marry between the ages of 20 and 30; (9) The cultural and educational level of the general public has been promoted, but still not enough for modernized construction; (10) The employment rate is high, and most of the working population is employed with the departments of material production. The percentage of employment of a service nature is small. A high percentage of the working population is related to agriculture, fishing, and animal husbandry. The precentage of workers in manual labor is much higher than that for mental labor.     

Transformation and Anomie: Problems of Quality of Life in Bulgaria

The weakening of social integration and anomie are unavoidable in the transformation of societies. The effect is a decrease of quality of life accompanied by disenchantments, aggressiveness and escapism. In some countries in Eastern Europe like Bulgaria the anomie effects of transformation became particularly strong. The major reason is the political instability. The dissolution of the previous state-centered over-integration of society developed into a dissolution of major mechanisms of political integration. The prospects for improvement of quality of life are focused on the balance of economic, political and cultural re-integration of Bulgarian society.     

基于省级面板数据的劳动者工资扭曲测度

本文利用1999—2012年省级面板数据，基于C-D生产函数对我国各省历年劳动者工资扭曲指数进行测度。研究结果发现：（1）我国各省劳动者工资普遍存在向下扭曲；（2）劳动者工资扭曲指数的时间趋势表现为先升后降，近4年趋于稳定的态势；（4）劳动者工资扭曲的省际差异的变动轨迹为：先逐渐缩小，再大幅度频繁波动，后平缓缩小；（4）劳动者工资扭曲存在地区差异，扭曲程度从高到低依次为东部地区、中部地区和西部地区。（5）劳动者工资扭曲指数并不完全取决于当地实际工资水平。由此，本文建议是：制定抑制地区间恶性引资竞争的宏观政策，建立以贸易利益最大化为目标的贸易发展模式，完善劳动力市场制度化建设，加强法律和工会对劳动者权益的保护，完善社会保障制度，扩大财政支出，从而减轻劳动者工资扭曲程度。     

人口与经济:从历史到现实的认识

人口与经济问题是人类社会长期关注的问题之一 ,也是人口经济学最重要的研究内容。本文对自马尔萨斯人口理论建立以来的有代表性的人口经济理论进行了回顾 ,这些理论主要包括 :马尔萨斯人口论与悲观主义人口经济理论 ;长期停滞论和乐观主义人口经济理论 ;低水平均衡陷井论和临界最小努力命题 ;适度人口论与可持续发展理论 ;以及人力资本论与新增长理论。在此基础上 ,对人口经济理论演进的特点进行了总结 :研究内容与不同时代所面临的主要社会经济问题紧密相关 ;研究领域日益宽泛 ;研究视野从发达国家扩展到发展中国家乃至全球范围 ;研究方法和研究思路的进步与完善。     

贵州省城市化发展与耕地资源的计量和协调性分析

城市化和保护耕地的矛盾已成为贵州经济发展中的突出问题。利用协整理论和协调度指标对贵州省1982～2008年的城市化水平与耕地面积的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,贵州耕地面积与城市化水平之间存在协整关系,且二者间呈负相关关系,随着城市化水平的提高,耕地面积减少,城市化水平提高是耕地面积变化的原因,但耕地面积变动不是城市化水平提高的原因。大部分年份的耕地资源与城市化水平协调度呈调和型,耕地资源保持在承载力阈值内,短期内可接受。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Christopher Wills, Children of Prometheus: The Accelerating Pace of Human Evolution Helen Fisher, The First Sex: The Natural Talents of Women and How They Are Changing the World Lionel Tiger, The Decline of Males Francis Fukuyama, The Great Disruption: Human Nature and the Reconstitution of Social Order Tom Kirkwood, Time of Our Lives: The Science of Human Aging Margo J. Anderson And Stephen E. Fienberg, Who Counts? The Politics of Census-Taking in Contemporary America Alain Desrosières, The Politics of Large Numbers: A History of Statistical Reasoning. Translation by Camille Naish of La politique des grands nombres: histoire de la raison statistique. Henk A. de Gans, Population Forecasting 1895–1945: The Transition to Modernity Massimo Livi-Bacci and Gustavo De Santis (eds.), Population and Poverty in the Developing World William A. Jackson, The Political Economy of Population Ageing Dorothy J. Solinger, Contesting Citizenship in Urban China: Peasant Migrants, the State, and the Logic of the Market     

An analysis of baby boom characteristics in China

This article analyzed the 3rd Chinese baby boom and its causes by focusing on the fertility intensity of women and the number of births per year. The 3rd baby boom is expected to end in 2002 and to peak in 1995. The baby boom in urban areas will last a much shorter time than in rural areas. Particular differences are manifested between provinces: 1) The baby boom will last 3-4 years in Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin, and will last 10 years in Liaoning, Jilin, and Jiangsu. In other provinces, the boom will last 15-23 years; 2) The peak years are different between provinces; 3) The base number of births curves are province-specific; 4) The absolute base birth numbers are different between provinces (Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan 700,000; Beijing, Tianjin, Qinghai, and Ningzia 100,000); and 5) The shapes of progressive increases for base number of births are province specific. The increase in the number of childbearing-age women, the unplanned higher parity births, and early marriage and childbearing have all contributed to the current baby boom. Recommendations to control the problem include controlling higher parity births, observing birth spacing, and controlling the age of marriage and childbearing.     

Measuring Progress: A Comparison of the GDP,HDI, GS and the RIE

The current paper constructs a progress measurement appropriate for measuring multiple and different dimensions of progress. The paper is not meant to be a detailed discussion of the framework but rather a demonstrated application of the measure. The constructed resource-infrastructure-environment progress measure employs a non-monetary evaluation adopting a weighting technique based on public opinion. The proposed index is assessed from a single summary standpoint. The aggregation method is evaluated via a z-score standardisation technique. The progress index is applied to three countries that are representative of different clusters. They are Australia (mid-industrialised nation), Mexico (emerging economy), and the US (highly industrialised nation). These selected countries provide an opportunity to highlight any divergences that may exist in their perceived economic strength. The results showed Australia as consistently having the highest levels of progress, closely followed by Mexico and then the US.     

The way of life of the Hungarian society on the basis of the time budget survey of 1976–1977

The way of life is a topic of central interest in present Hungarian sociology. The time budget survey is considered to be a good method to investigate the way of life. A national survey was performed in 1976–1977. Its results can be compared to an earlier national survey in 1963. The main characteristics of the way of life and the main changes are: The time spent at the workplace changed more slowly than the statutory working time. Income-supplementing working activities are very widespread, most of all in small agricultural plots. These plots are cultivated by almost all social strata residing in villages. The total amount of time spent in household chores diminished and became somewhat more equally shared by women and men. The length of daily contracted and commited time is strongly differentiated by social strata and this differentiation tended to increase.     

西部边疆少数民族地区人口经济、资源与环境的协调发展研究

西部边疆少数民族地区经济相对落后、生态脆弱且与邻国之间有着重要经济和文化交流等关系,实现该地区的可持续发展至关重要。本文基于主成分分析法研究了该地区的人口经济、资源与环境系统之间的协调发展水平及主要影响因素。结果表明,该地区的人口经济、资源和环境系统的发展水平较低,但均呈增长趋势。在2004年以前,三个系统的发展水平都为负值;此后,三者的综合发展水平都为正值,且逐渐提高。从综合协调发展趋势看,三个系统之间的综合协调发展水平呈现出很大的波动性,经历了一个从此长彼消到逐步趋于同步发展的过程。建议重点通过提高人口素质、提高资源的利用效率和发展生态产业促进这三个系统的协调发展。     

Sterilization: the barriers are being crossed

The sterilization program begun in the Philippines by Presidential Decree in 1974 is described. The goals of the program are: 1) training of program practitioners, to equip a corps of physicians with needed skills; 2) recruitment of acceptors to test the acceptability and viability of the approach among eligible groups; and 3) "professionalization" of medical practice in sterilization. The training of program physicians has been taken over by Popcom as part of its 1-year sterilization training program. The institutionalization of the surgical sterilization in medical schools and family planning organizations has been undertaken by the Study and Training Center for Surgical Sterilization. Various types of sterilization clinics are described. The reaction of the population and methods of handling potential acceptors are described. Sterilization techniques and side effects are presented for male and female sterilization. 3 models for information-education-communication in sterilization are reported. The number of births averted by this sterilization program is estimated. Problems encountered are revealed.     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

烟台加快发展的人口经济研究

改革开放以后,烟台作为第一批沿海开放城市之一,社会经济有了很大发展,但是,与其他沿海开放城市相比仍有明显的差距。加快烟台发展应采取以下对策:1.更新观念是振兴烟台的关键;2.打造支柱产业、特色产业,形成优秀的产业结构和产业链条市加快烟台发展的核心;3.加快人才开发是振兴烟台的根本;4.加快制度创新是振兴烟台的重要保证;5.加快农业劳动力转移,推进城市化是拉动烟台经济、社会发展的重要引擎;6.发展旅游业,扩大知名度,实施形象工程是振兴烟台的重要举措。     

中国人口性别结构的区域差异及演变动态分析

人口性别构成是影响人类婚姻、人口再生产的基本因素，也影响国家经济、政治、文化、教育等方面的发展，也是编制经济、文化、教育、科技、卫生、人民生活、劳动、城乡建设等发展规划的重要依据。同时对于中国当前正在进行的和谐社会建设也具有重要意义。利用中国五次人口普查资料及2005年1％人口抽样资料分析了中国总人口性别比演变动态及地理分布特征。表明：（1）中国在历史上是一个性别比偏高的国家，新中国总人口性别比呈下降趋势；（2）1953到2005年，年龄性别比曲线越来越平稳，性别比最高峰值呈现有低龄组向中龄组及高龄组转移的趋势；（3）各省区之间及城乡之间的性别结构差异由大变小；（4）山区性别比高于平原。重工业城市高于其他城市。大城市高于小城市。     

Woman cadres are women's friends

The All-China Women's Federation (WF) is a non-governmental organization of women and the highest leading body of the Women's Federations at all levels of the country. The WFS spare no efforts to do women good turns, work for their well-being and serve them wholeheartedly. The WFs are actively organizing women to learn to read and write and to acquire skills. The WFs play a role in protecting and education women, and in struggling for the safeguard of the legitimate rights of women and children. The WFs at all levels have been showing great concern for family planning. Finally, the WFs devote much attention to the training of women cadres, and to the improvement of their cultural level and working ability.     

Writing for publication: argument and evidence

The rules for writing a research report for publication are well defined but are much less clear for scholarly scientific papers. The purpose of this paper is to enable new writers to confidently apply the skills of scientific writing within a scholarly paper for publication. Similarities and differences between scientific argument and debating are discussed. Achieving the right 'tone' and emphasis in writing is considered. How to use the correct verb tense is outlined. The importance of a clearly defined question is explained. The elements of an effective scholarly paper are presented and examples given. The elements are the: question, thesis, introduction, body of the paper, conclusion and finally, an abstract.     

Validation of the 12 Item Short form Health Survey in a Sample from Region Central Jutland

In 2010 the Danish regions started a new program of public health surveillance in collaboration with the national and local health authorities using the short form health survey (SF-12) for measuring and reporting on health related quality of life among the Danish adult population. The instrument has not, however, been validated in a Danish setting. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and validity of the physical component summary (PCS) and the mental component summary (MCS) score of the 12-item short form health survey (SF-12) in a sample from Central Denmark Region. A total of 26,397 persons above the age of 25 were included in the analyses. Reliability was assessed by Cronbach’s α. The validity was assessed using known-groups comparisons and convergent validity. The factor structure was investigated through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The Cronbach’s α showed high reliability with a score of 0.90 and 0.85 for PCS and MCS respectively. The SF-12 discriminated well with respect to gender, age, educational status and long term illness. Individual items correlated higher with own hypothesized scales than with other scales and summary measures corroborating the convergent validity. The EFA gave a two-factor structure. Irrespective of the chosen rotation method (varimax and oblimin) the items related to PCS loaded on one factor and the items related to MCS loaded on another factor. The factor structure was validated with acceptable model-fit values in CFA. The SF-12 instrument is a reliable and valid measure of health related quality of life among the population of Central Denmark Region.     

Determinants of fertility control in Korea

The objective of this study is to examine the socioeconomic and intervening determinants of fertility control in Korea. The conceptual framework applied here is based on the synthesis framework of fertility control developed by Easterlin and Crimmins. The data came from the 1974 Korean National Family Survey, which was conducted as part of the World Fertility Survey. The study focuses on the relative importance of the socioeconomic factors and intervening variables in the determination of fertility control. The most interesting finding is that there are only small differentials in fertility control by socioeconomic factors. The analysis emphasizes the importance of examining the determinants of fertility control in terms of the intervening variables, which include the components of natural fertility, desired family size, and costs of fertility control. These intervening variables provide general support for the theoretical predictions. Moreover, most of the coefficients for these variables are statistically significant at the .05 level. The analysis also shows that motivation for fertility control is an important factor in determining use of fertility control.     

The quality of natural environment and mortality (based on the example of major cities in Poland)

"The paper presents the results of [a] study on the relationship between environmental degeneration and mortality in major cities of Poland [during the 1980s].... The authors examine 22 major cities differed according to the degree of pollution.... The analysis employs...life tables and methods of multiple regression.... The influence of the natural environment quality on mortality is diversified according to sex and age but in general, the interdependence is not strong."     

广东退休人口的规模与结构特征分析

本文对劳动统计资料和人口普查资料的分析表明,广东退休人口总量持续快速增长,老年人口中退休人口比例提高。退休人口趋于向城市和珠江三角洲集聚。性别结构逐步向平衡方向变化,较高年龄的退休人口增多。退休人口在保持国有身份特征时趋向多样性。退休人口整体教育素质改善,流动退休人口具有一定的人力资源优势。