Personnel policies and the age structure of an occupation: the case of the academic labor market

Population projection techniques are used to project the size and age structure of the academic labor force. Age specific coverage data from Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association are used to proxy academic employment. Hiring, quit, retirement and death rates are calculated for 1981 and 1982. Projections of the future academic labor force are made holding these rates constant. The results show the importance of these entry and exit rates and also indicate how these rates can fluctuate from year to year.Estimates of the future demand for teachers are used to determine a target rate of growth of the academic labor force. Alternative personnel policies are incorporated into the projections. This analysis indicates that the personnel policies chosen to meet the desired labor force size have substantially different effects on the age structure of the labor force.The authors wish to acknowledge the cooperation of the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association in providing the data used in this study and specifically Francis King for his assistance and encouragement. Helpful comments on this paper were provided by John Dutton, Ronald Schrimper, Jack Wilson, and Bryan Boulier.     

Age structure of the workforce in growing and declining industries: evidence from Hong Kong

Industry-specific human capital reduces the incentive for older workers to leave declining industries and raises the incentive for younger workers to join growing industries. Using the industry restructuring experience of Hong Kong, we find that a 1% increase in employment share of an industry is associated with a 0.60-year decrease in the average age of its workforce. The relationship is more pronounced among less educated workers, who have less general human capital, and male workers, who are more committed to the labor force, than among well educated workers and female workers.     

农民工劳动关系政府规制的关键绩效指标体系研究

由于制度性障碍尚未完全消除,加之很多农民工缺乏就业竞争优势,导致农民工在劳动关系矛盾中很难通过“劳资博弈”机制来维护自身的合法权益。因此,构建农民工劳动关系政府规制机制非常必要。要明确规制目标,查找短板,不断提升规制效率和效果,就要建立绩效考核制度,而其关键环节就是构建关键绩效指标体系。然而,这方面的研究极为缺乏。本文运用层次分析法构建了农民工劳动关系政府规制的关键绩效指标层次结构模型,该模型体现了“保护农民工的合法劳动权益,促进农民工劳动关系和谐健康发展”的战略导向,能督促各级政府部门将工作重点集中于对实现战略目标具有重大驱动力的要项,促进战略目标的达成。     

劳动力研究的投入产出技术

本文主要讨论了利用投入—劳动力占用—产出技术进行劳动力研究的方法 ,从研究现状和数据可得性角度分析了编制投入—劳动力占用—产出表的可行性 ,提出了具体的编表方法及对劳动力的分类方法。文章讨论的重点在于利用投入—劳动力占用—产出技术进行经济分析的方法 ,主要包括分析劳动力结构 ,分析生产对就业的拉动作用 ,从投入—劳动力占用—产出表导出活劳动投入产出表和完全劳动投入产出表等     

Applying demographic analysis in affirmative action disputes: An instructional case

This instructional case study illustrates applications of demographic concepts, data, and techniques in evaluating affirmative action goals for equalizing employment opportunity. Courts of law addressing employment discrimination disputes need an accurate picture of each minority group's proportion in a pool of prospective employees. The demographic and socioeconomic factors conditioning those proportions vary from place to place. In the situation examined here, the court originally used an imperfect population standard to set hiring goals. The case traces the multiple failures to account for those conditioning influences and describes the resulting distortions of legal purpose. In analyzing this failure, students gain experience in clarifying issues in dispute, devising measures to fit legal standards, and delineating qualified labor pools. Specific instructional applications include: using census data to document how local population structure and composition determine each minority group's presence in the workforce; and using administrative data to delineate the relevant labor pools for setting affirmative action goals. Training is broadly suited to assignments where applied demographers must delineate the ethnic and racial composition of a pool of workers eligible to be hired or promoted.     

数字经济时代资本三大构成变化及其对劳动报酬占比的影响

近年来,在以互联网、大数据、人工智能为核心生产要素和以创新驱动为战略支撑的数字经济逐步上升为国家战略的过程中,中国经济增长和劳动生产率提高颇为显著,资本技术构成始终保持稳步上升,而资本有机构成与资本价值构成出现了新的变化,均呈现波动式下降。劳动报酬占比在国民收入分配格局中长期处于低水平稳定且增长缓慢状态,如何提高劳动报酬占比越来越成为经济高质量发展的瓶颈。理论分析资本三大构成与劳动报酬占比的关系,并在此基础上就数字经济时代我国资本三大构成新变化对劳动报酬占比的影响进行研究发现,资本技术构成受到劳动生产率与就业数量的影响进而影响劳动报酬占比;资本价值构成对劳动报酬占比的影响与工资水平密切相关;资本有机构成随着经济发展水平的变化对劳动报酬占比的影响也会出现差异,因此需在提高劳动生产率的同时结合三大产业吸纳就业的特征,制定精准的差异化就业政策;形成中间大两头小的橄榄型分配结构,扩大中等收入群体比重并增加低收入群体报酬;探索物质生产资料和精神生产资料"双重"所有制结构变革,结合资本有机构成变化特点合理分配劳动与资本两要素;促进公共服务均等化,加大普惠性人力资本投入,在经济高质量发展中促进共同富...     

劳动力流动中的外部性问题分析

劳动力流动是实现要素合理化配置的重要手段。但是 ,当大量的劳动力流向城市时 ,却产生了外部性 ,并直接导致政府干预 ,即使外部性内部化。政府矫正外部性的两种手段 :就业歧视和提高劳动力流动成本。这会使劳动力资源的配置效率受损 ,总产出减少     

我国农村劳动力就业的路径选择与制度支持

农民阶层是社会地位较低表现为:农民收入明显低于其他阶层的收入;农民充分就业率低农民整体素质相对较差。橄榄型的现代社会阶层结构要求提升农民阶层社会地位。农村人力资本投资是增强农村劳动力就业竞争力,实现农村劳动力持续性就业根本性的路径选择。政府应为增加农村劳动力就业提供在人力资本投资、劳动力市场体系建设、消除对农民的歧视、社会保障制度健全等方面的制度支持。     

征地失业者的就业意愿及其影响因素——基于重庆市第六次人口普查的实证

文章基于全国第六次人口普查数据的分析,描述了征地失业者的区域空间分布、受教育程度和年龄结构方面的主要特点,并借助重庆市第六次人口普查长表数据系统探讨了区域分布、生活来源和个体特征对征地失业者就业意愿的影响,阐释了分析结果对提升征地失业者就业参与意愿的政策意义。总体而言,与其他主要失业群体相比,征地失业者在人力资本和年龄上都处于劣势;在其他条件相同的情况下,区域发展水平越高、生活来源保障度越弱、受教育程度越低、外出经历越被动的征地失业者,其就业参与意愿的概率比更小。结合其他相关分析结果推断,失地农民的就业参与意愿或许是当前及今后征用土地都会面临的一个社会问题。在人口城镇化加速的背景下,提高失地农民的就业意愿对于土地征用的制度安排及其影响群体可持续生计获取尤显重要。     

The missing bridge: How immigrant networks keep Americans out of dirty jobs

Immigrants are over half of the new entrants in occupations in southwestern labor markets that range from farmworker to janitor to engineering professor. This paper explains how the availability of immigrant workers changes employment practices in ways that push and pull Americans out of jobs which remain "dirty" or unattractive to U.S. workers. An immigrant network that eventually takes over an enterprise's jobs can begin by accident or design. Accidental immigrant takeovers begin with pioneer workers who persist in high turnover jobs such as seasonal farmworker. These workers offer to bring their friends and relatives to fill vacancies as they occur. Takeovers by design sometimes follow a strike in which immigrants are recruited to be strikebreakers. After immigrants dominate the workforce, the language and culture of the workplace change in ways that make American workers feel out-of-place. Employers feel under no compulsion to upgrade dirty jobs as long as immigrant workers are available, so the technology and productivity of immigrant-enclave jobs tend to be frozen, guaranteeing that dirty jobs get less and less attractive to Americans. Indeed, industries dependent on immigrant workers often turn protectionist when they realize that even low immigrant wages are not sufficient to ensure their survival in the global marketplace. In this way, Americans lose out in several ways: They must compete directly with immigrant workers in the labor market, and then pay higher prices for the goods produced by immigrant workers because the industries preserved by them demand protection from imports. This paper will explore the manner in which immigrant networks displace Americans from dirty jobs and how the availability of immigrant workers can preserve sunset industries which turn protectionist. Examples from fruit and vegetable agriculture, garments, and shoes will be discussed.     

From new entries to retirement: The changing age composition of the U.S. male labor force by industry

The process whereby the age composition of an industry is formed appears to be largely a function of past rates of growth in employment; the social (or institutional) framework sets limits and affects the ensuing age composition but relatively little. The following types will illustrate this process. 1. Consider an industry which has increased considerably more rapidly in employment over several decades than has the total labor force. The rapid growth brings in a disproportionately large share of youth who are first entering the labor market; other younger workers move from slowly growing (or declining) industries. These movements add many more younger workers. On the other hand, there is little, if any, unemployment in the industry so that there are few pressures being exerted on the older workers to retire, and relatively few will retire. Under these circumstances the age composition will be younger than tliat of the entire male working force. 2. Consider an industry which has grown slowly, if at all, for some time. There will be comparatively fewer (in comparison with the first example) new entries and less mobility from other industries. The men already engaged in this industry will continue to work there; they gradually become older and are not counterbalanced by increasing numbers of young workers. Unemployment is likely to be higher, leading to a higher retirement rate. There are also likely to be large numbers of men a decade or two under the retirement age-the heritage of an "ancient" period when the industry had experienced significant increases in employment; these add pressure on the older men and more retire. The age composition of such an industry gradually veers toward the older side; it is considerably older than that of the entire male working force. At any given moment of time most industries will reflect variable past growth rates. For example, one industry may have a very large proportion of young workers because it grew very rapidly in employment only during the decade prior to the time of study (i.e., the time of a decennial census); another may have a large proportion in the middle ages reflecting very rapid growth two or three decades earlier, followed by very slow growth in the decade prior to the time of study; and so forth.In light of the foregoing analysis, it appears that technological change, as measured by average annual changes in output per worker, has little bearing on the age composition of an industry. Conversely, the latter probably does not affect changes in output per worker.     

Aging Public Services and the Position of Older Women: An Australian Case Study

Contemporary labor markets are characterized by both aging of the workforce and the increase in participation of women. At the intersection of these two policy agendas are older women. Governments and employers recognize the importance of attracting and retaining older workers to address skills shortages, but the aging workforce discourse remains largely gender neutral. This research considers the intersection of age and gender in the context of public services, which are large employers of both women and older workers. It focuses on the agencies in an Australian state public service. The research finds that, despite decades of equal opportunity programs, there is still evidence of subtle inequalities and cumulative disadvantage. While the case study agencies employ a large proportion of older women, these women were generally recruited at younger ages and aged within the workforce. Their advancement and development opportunities were also inferior to those of older men. Despite these lesser opportunities, older women are generally very satisfied with their employment, and the employer should explore these residual inequalities if genuinely seeking to attract and retain all older workers.     

Youth unemployment and government policy

Young people of working age tend to be particularly prone to labor market inefficiencies that keep their wages excessively high and their employment excessively low. These inefficiencies are usually magnified through unemployment benefit systems. This paper examines how these problems can be tackled through “employment vouchers,” i.e. hiring subsidies or tax breaks for the unemployed. It examines how vouchers to the young unemployed should differ from those to the adult unemployed. The employment vouchers considered here reduce unemployment and impose no cost on the government, since they are financed by the induced fall in government expenditures on unemployment benefits. Among other things, we find that young workers should receive lower vouchers as displacement of the old rises and as deadweight from providing vouchers to the old increases.     

劳动力回流后的个人发展及影响因素研究述评

迁移劳动力返乡后,利用外出务工期间积累的资本、技术从事自我经营,或者创办实业,发展新的产业,成为当前农村劳动力转移的一个新现象。国内外学术界关于迁移劳动力回流后个人发展的研究,主要关注的是回流劳动力就业行为和收入能力,分析外出务工经历对农村劳动力职业转变和创业行为的影响,并考察了迁移劳动力返乡以后,是否会促进技术的改进和新技能的传播。迁移劳动力回流后的就业选择将对回流地的就业结构、就业机会和工资结构等产生怎样的影响,有待进一步检验。     

中国城市居民劳动供给行为特征

经过40多年的改革开放和计划生育政策实施,我国城市居民家庭规模、家庭财富、受教育程度等影响劳动供给行为的因素均发生了巨大变化。这种变化对就业政策的制定和相关福利政策的实施都有较大影响。运用来自29个省市6675个城市家庭、8771个居民的调查数据对我国城市居民劳动供给行为进行了研究。结果表明:我国城市居民劳动供给曲线整体上呈现向右上方倾斜的特征,随着工资上涨,劳动者工作时间随之增长,但是工资弹性仅有0.52,处于缺乏弹性的区间;分类型看,女性、户主、受教育程度较低者工资弹性较大,对工资变动更加敏感;女性、户主、受教育程度较高者收入弹性更大,对收入变动更加敏感;分年龄阶段看,18—30岁的新生代劳动力工作时间受工资和非工资收入影响均不显著,31—45岁的劳动力比45岁以上劳动力工资弹性和收入弹性更高,对工资和非工资收入更加敏感。本文的研究结果对细化实施就业政策和制定相关福利政策具有一定启示作用。     

What Does Non-standard Employment Look Like in the United States? An Empirical Typology of Employment Quality

Despite significant interest in the changing nature of employment as a critical social and economic challenge facing society—especially the decline in the so-called Standard Employment Relationship (SER) and rise in more insecure, precarious forms of employment—scholars have struggled to operationalize the multifaceted and heterogeneous nature of contemporary worker-employer relationships within empirical analyses. Here we investigate the character and distribution of employment relationships in the U.S., drawing on a representative sample of wage-earners and self-employed from the General Social Survey (2002–2018). We use the multidimensional construct of employment quality, which includes both contractual (e.g., wages, contract type) and relational (e.g., employee representation and participation) aspects of employment. We further employ a typological measurement approach, using latent class analysis, to explicitly examine how the multiple aspects of employment cluster together in modern labor markets. We present eight distinct employment types in the U.S., including one resembling the historical conception of the SER model (24% of the total workforce), and others representing various constellations of favorable and adverse employment features. These employment types are unevenly distributed across society, in terms of who works these jobs and where they are found in the labor market. Importantly, women, those with lower education, and younger workers are more likely to be in precarious forms of employment. More generally, our typology reveals limitations associated with binary conceptions of standard vs. non-standard employment, or insider–outsider dichotomies envisioned within dual labor market theories.

     

我国制造业结构与劳动力素质结构吻合度分析——兼论“民工荒”、“技工荒”与大学生就业难问题

基于要素密集度与受教育程度分别给出了考查制造业结构与劳动力素质结构的方法,测算并分析了2006～2010年全国、东部、中部和西部地区制造业结构与劳动力素质结构变动状况。在合理选择测度方法的基础上,对上述地区制造业结构与劳动力素质结构的吻合度进行了测算。结果表明,全国范围东部和西部地区制造业结构与劳动力素质结构的吻合度是逐步提高的。从制造业结构与劳动力素质结构是否吻合的视角,分析讨论了"民工荒"、"技工荒"与大学生就业难问题产生的原因,提出了促进制造业转型升级和推动职业教育与高等教育改革发展的相关对策建议。     

推动区域协调发展的农民工角色认知——从“民工潮”到农民工“回乡创业”

劳动力流动理论揭示了劳动力流动缩小地区差距的机制。城乡差距与农民工问题之间存在正相关关系。理论与发展经验的分异表征劳动力自由流动拉平地区差距命题成立的条件性。农民工身份地位历经政府强制性限制、民间默认、政府认可的制度演进，在推动区域协调发展中的角色优势凸显。农民工问题的解决与缩小城乡差距、推动区域协调发展是同步的。在城乡空间大循环中实现农村劳动力的城市沉淀。在乡村内部通过农民工回乡创业促就业，共同构成了解决农民工问题的双循环机制。农民工身份形式与内容的统一是农民工问题解决的标志。     

The initial effects of immigration reform on farm labor in California

Agriculture was the major industry singled out for preferential treatment in the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986. Farmers argued that their traditional reliance on unauthorized workers and the seasonal nature of work in perishable commodities required extra time for them to adjust to immigration reforms.A February 1989 survey of California farm employers indicates that these employers had not yet adjusted to IRCA. Instead of revising their personnel policies to retain newly legalized farmworkers, farmers expected to hire more workers through labor contractors if the seasonal workforce contracts in the years ahead.     

Working parents and total factor productivity growth

Since 1963, changes in the family composition of the US labor force explain more than half of the variability in US total factor productivity growth. Using the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, we document the rise of two (and single) working-parent families in the USA. We augment a standard growth-accounting equation to differentiate between parental and nonparental labor inputs and find that accounting for the parental composition of the labor force explains roughly 50 % of total factor productivity growth, the productivity slowdown of the 1970s, and the productivity rise of the 1990s. The parental composition of the workforce also helps to explain labor productivity differences across US states while controlling for differences in the age and gender profile of workers across states does not.