中国人口普查死亡数据质量评估及2010-2020年死亡模式转变分析北大核心

人口的预期寿命和年龄死亡模式是评估人口健康水平、掌握人口发展规律的重要指标。人口普查为掌握年龄死亡模式的变动特点和人口预期寿命水平提供了基础数据,然而根据以往研究文献和对2020年人口普查数据的分析,人口普查所获得的死亡数据存在一定程度的漏报,需要对这一数据质量进行评估和修正。为此,本文根据不同年龄段的死亡特点对布拉斯-罗吉特模型进行适应性调整,使其符合观察年份的死亡模式,获得模型参数,进而实现对2010-2020年死亡数据的校正评估。结果显示2020年人口普查获得的死亡数据中低龄组男性漏报率高于女性,0-9岁男性平均漏报率为75.33%,女性为57.69%,男婴死亡漏报率为85.08%,女婴死亡漏报率为77.80%;70-90岁高龄组死亡漏报率男性平均为22.55%,女性为20.75%,90岁及以上的死亡漏报比较低;老年阶段男性漏报率普遍高于女性。2010年婴儿死亡概率为21.15‰,2020年为8.80‰;2010年出生预期寿命为74.82岁,2020年为78.21岁,10年间预期寿命增长了3.39岁。通过比较分析发现21世纪以来我国人口年龄死亡模式呈现“低龄降低,中龄平稳,中高龄先缓升后陡升,高龄略有回降”的变动态势。这表明进入老龄前期人口死亡概率降低带来一个虚弱累积的过程,达到一定年龄(70-80岁)后,老化速度就会加快虚弱累积的效应,带来更高年龄组失能或死亡概率的加速增长。     

中国1982年后人口普查和抽样调查中死亡漏报的估计——基于Bayesian分层回归模型

利用Bayesian分层回归模型估计中国1982年后历次人口普查和抽样调查的死亡漏报率及其随时间的变化。结果表明:0岁死亡漏报率随时间的变化具有明显的阶段性,而1～4岁死亡漏报率随时间的变化趋势不明显;全年龄、5～14岁和15～59岁、60～89岁和90岁及以上死亡漏报率随时间的变化基本近似且同样具有阶段性。受漏报原因和不同时期社会背景的影响,女性1～4岁的死亡漏报率不一定低于0岁的死亡漏报率。人口普查成人阶段各年龄死亡漏报率差别较大,而人口抽样调查则较为一致。2000年人口普查男性和2010年全人口90岁及以上死亡率偏低是由比较严重的死亡漏报造成。死亡漏报对预期寿命计算误差的影响因年龄而异,二者关系在婴幼儿中较弱,其余年龄死亡漏报和预期寿命误差存在显著线性正相关。     

中国死亡模式转变与国家卫生服务利用效率的关系

文章利用历次人口普查资料和国家1993、1998年卫生服务利用调查数据,分析了中国人口死亡水平变化及与卫生资源利用的关系。研究表明,新中国成立以来,人口死亡率呈较稳定下降趋势;性别、年龄别和地区别的人口死亡率、死因构成间存在着明显的差异。目前,中国人口死亡率的继续下降已经不能单靠生活和卫生基本条件改善所发挥的粗放式作用,必须合理利用卫生资源,使那些沿用多年的社会支持系统和医疗卫生系统能够有效地适应新的人口转变形势,并能应对不同原因所致的慢性病和公共卫生问题,这也是降低人口死亡水平的潜在动力。     

人口死亡力的因子分解及其模型

本文在分析了现有人口死亡模型的各种形式的基础上，以死亡的直接度量形式为目标，构造了两种新的死亡模型。新模型的特点是：（１）设计了使它能适合作各种人口分析的模型变量；（２）把模型分解为基本部分和波动部分，其中基本部分规定了死亡力的基本大小，它可分解为随年龄增加而下降和随年龄增加而上升的两种死亡力，具有简单、确定的函数形式；波动部分随死亡水平、死亡类型与死亡分析的需要，可以有各种形式。因此模型具有很大的灵活性，能适应各种场合，并且具有很高的精；（３）用模型对一些人口死亡现象可以作合理的解释。本文还解释了人口学上两类死亡模型的关系，并揭示了人口死亡间接度量模型的改进方法     

社会主义初级阶段计划生育管理的特点和要求

人口再生产是指新一代出生、成长和老一代衰老、死亡不断进行的过程。人口再生产和物质资料再生产一样,都具有其自然属性和社会属性两方面。人口再生产的自然方面,表现为人口出生、成长、衰老和死亡这一不断反复进行的生理过程;其社会属性方面,表现在人口再生产的自然过程要通过一定的社会关系才能实现,由社会生产方式决定。从本质上说:人口再生产过程是社会过程。因此,本文将从社会主义初级阶段的社会生产方式出发,探讨我国当前计划生育管理的特点和要求。     

甘南藏族自治州男性人口生命表和死亡分析

本文用Brass曾生子女存活比估算儿童死亡率的方法和Gompertz死亡率定律等方法对甘南藏族自治州的“五普”男性人口的死亡和生存原始数据作了进一步的修匀和校正。在此基础上。我们用Farlle死亡概率法编制出了甘南藏族自治州男性人口的简略生命表．并通过生命表的结果分析了甘南州男性人口的死亡水平、死亡模式和死亡的性别格局。     

中国人口的死亡水平及预期寿命评估——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

本文基于2010年人口普查数据,以1981年的中国人口生命表为模型生命表对2010年的人口按龄死亡模式进行修正,测算2010年的中国人口预期寿命,对20世纪80年代以来人口死亡率的变化趋势以及性别模式进行分析。研究结果发现,2010年中国人口的死亡率下降至5.58‰;人口预期寿命达到75岁,其中男性的预期寿命超过73岁,女性预期寿命为78岁;近10年间中国人口预期寿命的增幅超过4岁,高于20世纪80年代以来的任何时期。然而,2010年的人口普查数据中婴幼儿和老年人口存在严重的死亡漏报,现有的经济利益和社会制度因素的制约对人口普查数据质量的提高提出了巨大挑战。偏高的女婴死亡率虽然较2000年有所改善,但依旧存在,对女性的社会歧视仍在威胁中国的人口安全。     

中国人口死亡水平的空间统计分析

文章以模型生命表为基础,对最近3次人口普查得到的各省份人口死亡数据进行修正,并利用基于地理信息系统(GIS)的探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)技术,对修正后的人口死亡水平(用出生时预期寿命表示)的时空变异进行研究,以辨明中国人口死亡水平的空间分布及演变特征.研究结果表明,1981～2000年中国各省份的死亡水平存在正向的空间自相关现象,但自相关程度随时间变动有所降低;死亡水平较高或较低省份与其周围同样较高或较低省份,在空间上更多地趋于集聚而非随机分布.研究结果为引导有限的社会卫生资源流向最需要的人群和地区可以提供一定的依据.     

中国老年人口死亡模型北大核心CSSCI

中国老年人口的规模与比例急剧上升,预期寿命不断延长,老年人口死亡率变动趋势引起社会的广泛关注。本文采用1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年四次人口普查数据,选用10种参数模型分析比较65岁及以上老年人口累计死亡概率。研究发现逻辑斯蒂模型、冈泊茨-麦克汉姆模型、威布尔模型和广义极值模型能较好地拟合老年人口累计死亡概率。通过比较模型拟合结果与观测值之间的差异发现逻辑斯蒂模型整体上能较好地体现中国老年人口死亡模式;冈泊茨-麦克汉姆、广义极值、逆高斯、对数-逻辑斯蒂、对数-正态和威布尔六种模型的拟合结果在低龄老年阶段和高龄老年阶段低于观测值,在中龄老年阶段高于观测值;冈泊茨模型的拟合结果在低龄老年阶段和高龄老年阶段高于观测值;指数模型和伽玛模型的拟合结果在整个老年阶段均低于观测值。将最高年龄组由100岁拓展到130岁,发现逻辑斯蒂模型和威布尔模型预测结果较好。本文的研究结果为拟合不同老年阶段死亡模式选择合适的模型提供了方法借鉴。     

死亡人口受教育水平的预测模型和效果研究——对中国1990～2010年省级面板数据的估计

由于缺乏健全的死亡民事登记和医疗登记制度,中国死亡人口的受教育水平只能获得人口普查年份的数据,非普查年份数据只能用普查年份数据代替,这种替代法在使用中存在诸多不足,构建模型对非普查年数据进行估计是另一种可行的方法。本研究利用经过识别和有效性检验的模型,以社会经济发展水平、人口结构水平、医疗卫生水平和存活人口受教育水平作为解释变量,利用可得资料对1990²010年期间非普查年份数据进行估计,得到更为有效的省级死亡人口受教育水平逐年数据。     

On the Far Eastern pattern of mortality

Since the early 1980s, it has been accepted widely that there is a Far Eastern pattern of mortality, a pattern characterized by excessively high death rates among older men relative to death rates among younger men and among women. It has been regarded as a unique regional mortality pattern, applying primarily to Far Eastern populations. A re-examination of the mortality data of some Far Eastern populations reveals that changes in both age patterns of and sex differentials in mortality have been widely observed. Further, mortality patterns similar to the so-called Far Eastern mortality model have been found in many other populations.     

Age patterns of mortality for older women: An analysis using the age‐specific rate of mortality change with age

The age‐specific rate of mortality change with age, defined by k(x) = d Inμ(x)/dx, where μ(x) is the age‐specific death rate at exact age x, is estimated for middle and old ages in ten selected populations that are considered to have relatively accurate age data. For females in each of the study populations, k(x) follows a bell‐shaped curve that usually peaks around age 75. In some of the populations, the age pattern of k(x) for males is confounded with substantial cohort variations, which seem to reflect long‐term impacts of their World War I experiences.

Among the mathematical models proposed by Gompertz, Makeham, Perks and Beard, only the Perks model is consistent with the bell‐shaped pattern of k(x). It is shown that, if the risk of death for every individual follows the Makeham equation and if the individual frailty is gamma‐distributed, then the age‐specific death rate follows the Perks equation.     

Estimating the completeness of reporting of adult deaths in populations that are approximately stable

An elaboration of Preston's (Preston and Hill, 1980) procedure for determining the completeness with which deaths are recorded in approximately stable populations is presented. Both the procedures of Preston and that of Brass are conventionally limited to mortality beyond early childhood, to mortality above age 5 or age 10. The method considered here is based on characteristics of stable populations, i.e., populations that have been subject for a long time to little variation in age-specific mortality schedules or in overall levels of fertility. The essential features of a stable population are maintained even if fertility has changed. This is the case as long as no strong trend in fertility existed more than 15 or 20 years before the date at which the population is observed. Recent changes in fertility may affect the structure of the population at adult ages, but the effect on estimates of completeness of death records can generally be kept within tolerably narrow limits. Prior to showing how explicit estimates of the relative completeness of recording of numbers of deaths and persons can be derived from counts of deaths and persons by age, it is noted that a life table for a stable population can be constructed directly from the recorded distribution of deaths by age, or from the recorded distribution of persons. The procedures described are applied to several different populations in order to illustrate the computational steps necessary to estimate the completeness of death records at ages above childhood in populations that are approximately stable.     

Population Variation in Cause of Death: Level,Gender, and Period Effects

The trends in 13 cause of death categories are examined with respect to expectation of life, sex differences, and period effects while misclassification of cause of death is controlled. The results suggest that as mortality declines, 1) the increasingly U-shaped age pattern of mortality is a period effect associated with the infectious diseases, 2) the risks of both overall infectious and degenerative causes of death decline, and 3) infectious disease mortality declines more in males, while degenerative disease mortality declines more in females. Finally, the model shows that some contemporary populations are approaching the .limits of reduction in mortality during infancy, childhood, and young adulthood. Past declines in the degenerative diseases, however, suggest that mortality may continue to decline.     

On the Far Eastern pattern of mortality

Since the early 1980s, it has been accepted widely that there is a Far Eastern pattern of mortality, a pattern characterized by excessively high death rates among older men relative to death rates among younger men and among women. It has been regarded as a unique regional mortality pattern, applying primarily to Far Eastern populations. A re-examination of the mortality data of some Far Eastern populations reveals that changes in both age patterns of and sex differentials in mortality have been widely observed. Further, mortality patterns similar to the so-called Far Eastern mortality model have been found in many other populations.     

Consanguinity and child mortality: The risk faced by families

Previous research reveals that the characteristics and practices of a child's family are important determinants of its chances of surviving beyond childhood. This study investigates the effects of consanguinity on a family's odds of experiencing the death of a child in Pakistan, a society in which marriage among close relatives is common. Analysis of data from the 1991 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey reveals that first cousin marriages increase a couple's risk of enduring the death of one or more of their children. These couples are 1.18 times as likely to have a child die by its fifth birthday than couples not related by blood net of other factors associated with child mortality. Elimination of first cousin marriages would contribute to a modest decrease in the proportion of Pakistani families suffering the death of a child.     

两人群引力模型框架下的中国死亡率预测①--结合美国相应数据

Lee－Carter系列模型是对一个人群的死亡率动态建模和预测的模型。由于中国死亡率抽样数据的质量问题导致模型预测的效果不如国外文献所反映的那么精确。本文在两人群引力模型框架下结合中国和美国同期死亡率数据建模，并将结果与相应的单人群模型比较。研究表明，引力模型与APC模型相结合取得了最好的效果，在此基础上本文预测2025年老年抚养比会急剧上升到23．32％，2030年的婚配男性人口超出女性约2079万，婴幼青少年20年间累计死亡人数约293万。     

The influence of cause-specific mortality conditions on the age pattern of mortality with special reference to Taiwan

Abstract This paper discusses the relationship between the level of mortality at ages one to four, on one hand, and five to 34 on the other. This relationship has been observed to vary considerably among mortality schedules at different levels of mortality and even among schedules at the same general level of mortality. This variation is shown among the modem life table systems of the Regional Model Life Tables and the United Nations Model Life Tables. Controlling for the leyel ofmortality from age five to age 34, the West Tables and the United Nations Tables embody approximately the same 'average' relationship between early childhood and adult mortality. Relatively to this average relationship, the South and East Tables consistently display higher childhood mortality rates for a given level of adult mortality. Indeed, the childhood rates of the South Table are twice those of the West Tables over a range of life expectancy at birth from 40 to 70 years. The relationship between childhood and adult mortality from 1957 to 1968, a period of rapid mortality decline, was investigated in Taiwan. In 1957, the Taiwanese data reflected the severe childhood mortality of the South Model Tables. However, by 1968, due to an especially large decline in childhood mortality, this relationship was more moderate and resembled the mortality pattern of the West or East Model Tables. An analysis of the decline in cause-specific mortality during the period revealed that a dramatic decline in childhood mortality from gastro-enteritis was primarily responsible for the shift in the relationship between childhood and adult mortality in Taiwan. It is asserted that, while any of several diseases which result in fatalities primarily among children of pre-school ages, could cause relatively severe childhood mortality, gastro-enteritis is likely to be a primary contributor to such an age pattern. This assertion is based on the fact that, especially in the developing areas of the world, malnutrition and gastro-enteritis are usually precipitating and complicating factors of other childhood diseases. A limited test of this hypothesis was provided by considering the causal components of childhood mortality rates in two populations known, for certain periods, to have exhibited relatively severe childhood mortality conditions; Spain and Portugal. For the years in which those populations were characterized by the South mortality pattern, gastro-enteritis was a principal cause of mortality in childhood. Moreover, with the decline in mortality from gastro-enteritis, the mortality pattern in Spain and Portugal no longer exhibited childhood mortality rates which were severe relative to those of adult life. The implications of these findings for the analysis of mortality conditions in many areas of the developing world, where the gastro-enteritis malnutrition syndrome annually claims a heavy toll of life in early childhood, are not clear. In those areas, the effect of this syndrome on the age pattern of mortality could be offset by special conditions inflating adult mortality rates. Nevertheless, in circumstances where there is evidence indicating substantial childhood mortality from this syndrome and no evidence indicating compensating severe adult mortality, there is reason to suspect that the existing mortality pattern reflects the relatively severe childhood mortality conditions of the South Model Tables. Additionally, where mortality from the gastro-enteritis malnutrition syndrome has been severe in past years, but has been reduced to low levels in recent years, it is probable that the relationship between childhood and adult mortality will shift in favour of the former - quite possibly, in the manner of Taiwan, from a South to an East or West age pattern.     

分年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的实验研究 ——以甘肃省为例

人均期望寿命是分析、评价人口健康状况,衡量社会经济发展及医疗卫生服务水平的重要指标。从2014年开始人均期望寿命的提高被纳入卫生计生系统考核内容,受到各级政府的重视。为了有效地甄别和评价政策实施对人均期望寿命提高的贡献程度,需要精确地估计和判断各年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命提高的影响。在实践中,针对某一年龄组或某一特定人群死亡率的变动以及相关政策实施对人均期望寿命的影响鲜有较为精确的定量解答或快速有效的估算办法。本研究通过数据实验方法和计算机辅助计算建立一套可以较为精确地估算某一区域内某一年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的计算方法和结果集,利用这种方法可以开展不同类型、不同区域内人口死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的快速估算。利用估算结果可以对区域内政策实施效果进行较为科学的评估或评价。文章以中国2010年人口普查数据中甘肃省各年龄组分性别死亡率数据为基础对上述研究进行实证分析和验证。