残疾人就业政策效果评估——来自CHIP数据的经验证据

本文采用中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)数据研究了《残疾人就业条例》对我国城镇地区残疾人就业和收入变化的影响,结果表明,残疾人就业和收入在该条例出台前后并无显著变化。结合2001-2013年的城镇残疾人统计数据分析发现,《残疾人就业条例》实施后福利企业的税收优惠幅度减少、残疾人个体就业的政策门槛较高、申请程序复杂等是导致残疾人就业不乐观的重要原因。据此,文章从集中就业、按比例就业和个体就业三个方面提出了促进残疾人就业的政策建议。     

中国老年人隔代照料与 健康后果的实证研究及政策思考

在中国家庭代际关系的研究中,隔代照料这一选题极为重要,隔代照料也是老年和家庭福利政策制定的重要影响因素。老年人隔代照料与健康问题日益受到国内学者的关注,但对两者相关性的深入实证考察较少,仅有的研究也未就隔代照料产生的健康后果达成共识,政策应对亦存局限。为此,本文基于2014年中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS)截面数据,探讨中国老年人照料孙子女对自身健康产生的后果及几个主要变量之间的交互作用,对其进行量化研究并通过稳健性检验。研究得出三项基本结论:隔代照料的健康后果受到照料强度、子女特征、居住模式及老年人自身罹患慢性疾病状况的影响,在不同的特征状况下呈现不同的健康结果;照料者受教育程度、照料者性别、健在子女数等变量间的交互作用对被解释变量(照料者健康)产生了不同程度的调节作用,成年子女向上的代际支持也对老年照料者的健康发挥了调节作用;使用工具变量(照料者是否享受老年优待政策)进行因果识别在一定程度上克服了解释变量与被解释变量间的内生性问题。最后,本文基于上述实证研究的结果从代际关系视角、社会性别视角和老年婚姻社会功能等方面提出公共政策的应对思考,以期为制定相应的老年和家庭福利政策提供策略和依据。     

流动人口社会融入对其父母家庭养老的影响——基于2013年全国七城市的实证研究

文章利用2013年全国七个城市流动人口的问卷调查数据,使用Logistic回归分析流动人口社会融入对其父母家庭养老的影响,以父母养老地点作为被解释变量探讨其影响因素.模型结果表明,传统的养老观念并不因人口流动而弱化,流动人口社会融入感的增强对父母未来养老地点的选择具有重要影响.流动人口的个人因素和家庭因素也有显著影响:年龄在18~40岁、拥有非农户口、受教育程度越高、家庭有产权房、在流入地有买房打算和定居意愿、与本地人交往较多的流动人口将父母接到身边养老的意愿更强,而传统的性别差异、农村土地承担的养老功能以及流动人口在流入地的居住时间则对被解释变量没有显著影响,并提出增强流动人口融入感和归属感等政策建议.     

我国成年残疾人口的婚姻状况及其影响因素研究

婚姻家庭状况是人类社会生活的重要方面。对于残疾人,婚姻含有生存的意义,家庭是他/她们生活的主要载体,甚至是生存的唯一依靠。但残疾人在婚姻家庭生活中遇到了许多问题和困难。如何帮助解决残疾人的婚姻与家庭问题,是全社会应该关心的一件大事。本文利用第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据,研究成年残疾人口的婚姻状况及其影响因素。研究结果表明,影响成年残疾人口婚姻状况的重要因素包括就业状况、家庭收入状况等经济指标。另一方面,成年残疾人口的婚姻状况与其本身的残疾程度以及因残疾带来的自身理解与交流能力的差异、与他人相处能力的好坏、对于社会的参与能力的差异等有显著关系。此外,性别、户口性质、教育程度等基本人口特征指标也显著影响到成年残疾人口的婚姻状况。     

我国成年残疾人口的婚姻状况及其影响因素研究

婚姻家庭状况是人类社会生活的重要方面。对于残疾人,婚姻含有生存的意义,家庭是他/她们生活的主要载体,甚至是生存的唯一依靠。但残疾人在婚姻家庭生活中遇到了许多问题和困难。如何帮助解决残疾人的婚姻与家庭问题,是全社会应该关心的一件大事。本文利用第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据,研究成年残疾人口的婚姻状况及其影响因素。研究结果表明,影响成年残疾人口婚姻状况的重要因素包括就业状况、家庭收入状况等经济指标。另一方面,成年残疾人口的婚姻状况与其本身的残疾程度以及因残疾带来的自身理解与交流能力的差异、与他人相处能力的好坏、对于社会的参与能力的差异等有显著关系。此外,性别、户口性质、教育程度等基本人口特征指标也显著影响到成年残疾人口的婚姻状况。     

残疾人就业政策:国际经验及对我国的启示

第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据显示我国目前共有残疾人8296万,残疾人就业难成为我国政府亟待解决的一个重要问题。国际经验表明,适当的政策可以促进残疾人就业。本文介绍了发达国家和地区的残疾人就业政策,发现他们的残疾人政策主要集中在收入支持、就业计划和康复计划三个方面。通过比较这些国家和地区对残疾人采取的就业政策和措施,得出促进我国残疾人就业的政策启示,包括制订康复计划,转变雇主对残疾人的观念,针对残疾人就业制定专门的法律等。     

农村居民养老意愿的影响因素分析——基于武汉市江夏区的实证研究

农村居民养老意愿是影响在农村推行何种养老政策的重要因素。本文以抽样调查的数据为基础。利用回归模型中的无序多属性反应变量的Logit模型（MNL）对武汉市江夏区农村居民养老意愿的影响因素进行了分析。研究发现，性别、年龄等个人特征与家庭子女数、家庭规模、家庭年净收入等家庭特征对农村居民的养老意愿的影响显著，而文化程度和婚姻状况等个人特征虽然在样本中影响较大，但在总体中对养老模式选择并无显著影响。     

"单独二孩"与"全面二孩"政策家庭生育意愿比较及启示

生育意愿是影响实际生育水平的超前变量,为预测生育水平提供重要参数.通过对山东省符合"单独二孩"政策和"全面二孩"政策家庭的大样本生育意愿调查,结果显示,两类政策家庭的二孩生育意愿和理想子女数基本相同,且愿意生育二孩的主观因素、地区差异及户口性质、文化程度、现有1孩性别等对两类家庭生育意愿的影响是类似的;生育安排、不愿意生育的主观因素、属相偏好等则存在显著差异.二元Logistic回归模型模拟结果表明:现有1孩性别、年龄、地区因素、主观因素等对两类家庭二孩生育意愿均具有显著的影响;"全面二孩"政策家庭更主要从一个孩子的风险性方面考虑二孩生育,"单独二孩"政策家庭则更多从自身养老和精神需求的角度做出二孩生育选择.     

中国失能老人长期照护服务使用的影响因素分析——基于安德森健康行为模型的实证研究

文章利用2014年中国老人健康长寿跟踪调查数据(CLHLS),将安德森健康行为模型作为理论框架剖析中国失能老年人群对长期照护服务使用的影响因素.实证研究表明:安德森模型中的3类变量中只有使能因素和需求因素对服务的选择产生了显著影响,前倾因素则不显著.据此,文章得出与前人研究不同的结论:在中国当前的现实情境和文化背景下,老人对于长期照护服务的使用更多的是受到客观环境的影响,即便个人有使用某种健康服务的特征和倾向,但仍受制于政策环境、个人与家庭能力以及健康状况等能力和需求要素.此外,文章引入家庭照料者意愿这一变量,对安德森模型进行本土化改造的探索,并对服务需求评估工具、家庭发展能力和社区服务未来走向等内容进行深入探讨.     

流动人口养老保险参与意愿及其影响因素的实证研究——基于“有限理性”学说

依据西蒙的"有限理性"假说对流动人口养老保险的参与意愿进行分析,是否参与养老保险是流动人口根据外部环境和制度因素以及自己的经济、家庭因素等对自己未来养老预期达到满意程度的行为选择。基于2009年流入地数据,将流动人口是否参加养老保险作为被解释变量,将流动人口的个人因素、工作状况、家庭因素以及社会政策及融入感因素作为解释变量,建立二元Logistic回归模型,分析流动人口养老保险参与意愿及其影响因素,研究结果表明流动人口的个人因素和工作状况是影响参保意愿的重要因素。     

Determinants of Poverty and Their Variation Across the Poverty Spectrum: Evidence from Hong Kong,a High-Income Society with a High Poverty Level

This study aims to investigate into the determinants of poverty in Hong Kong. Previous research on poverty, which usually adopted a logistic regression model to examine individuals’ probabilities of being poor, could not adequately reveal the heterogeneity in experiences among people across the poverty spectrum, therefore has limited policy effort to address diverse needs of individuals struggling with poverty. In the present study, this concern is addressed by using a quantile regression model to examine the differential effects of the determinants of poverty across the poverty spectrum. Data were drawn from the Hong Kong Panel Survey for Poverty Alleviation (n?=?1668). Logistic regression indicated that being elderly, being female, not having a partner, from a single-parent household, not being employed, living in public rental housing, have lower educational attainment, and have poor self-rated health, increased the probability of being poor. Informational support was a protective factor of poverty, while several negative life events, such as having family member(s) with disabilities/chronic diseases and having financial burden, were risk factors of poverty. Quantile regression analysis was adopted to further examine the extent to which determinants of poverty unfold across poverty spectrum, which was captured by five groups of “extremely poor”, “deeply poor”, “at the poverty line”, “near poverty” and “marginally poor”. Quantile regression indicated that people living across the poverty spectrum were similarly affected by not having a partner, living in single-parent households and not working. However, extremely poor and deeply poor were more adversely affected by old age than those near poverty and marginally poor. It is also discovered that public rental housing buffered the poverty risks more in those who lived in deep poverty than those who were near poverty and marginally poor. University education protected the near poverty and marginally poor to a larger extent than those who were extremely poor and deeply poor. Information support also buffered the poverty risks, and people living across the poverty spectrum were equally benefited from it.

     

Impediments to Mothers Leaving Welfare: The Role of Maternal and Child Disability

This research examines the relationship between disabilities in families and exits from welfare. Controlling for variations in characteristics known to be associated with welfare exits, this study investigates and documents that specific configurations of disabilities in families are also strongly associated with reduced rates of welfare exits. The impact of a child with a disability on welfare exits is similar to the mother's own disability, with an impact equivalent in magnitude to minority status. The presence of a child with a disability limits the chances that a mother with disability will leave welfare. Our findings add to the literature on welfare dependency and have implications for welfare reforms that emphasize work, self-sufficiency, and reducing poverty.     

Fuzzy Measures of Longitudinal Poverty in a Comparative Perspective

In this paper we present a methodology for the study of longitudinal aspects of monetary and multi-dimensional poverty, and apply this in a multi-country comparative context. The conventional poor/non-poor dichotomy is replaced by defining poverty as a matter of degree, determined by the place of the individual in the income distribution. The same methodology facilitates the inclusion of other dimensions of deprivation into the analysis: by appropriately weighting indicators of deprivation to reflect their dispersion and correlation, we can construct measures of non-monetary deprivation in its various dimensions. An important contribution of the paper is to identify rules for the intersection and union of fuzzy sets appropriate for the study of poverty and deprivation. These rules allow us to meaningfully study the persistence of poverty and deprivation over time. We establish the consistency of the approach when applied to a time sequence of any length. We can thus study longitudinally over time a whole range of indicators of poverty and deprivation, from cross-sectional monetary poverty rates to multi-dimensional indicators of deprivation: in particular, we propose the new “Fuzzy At-persistent-risk-of-poverty rate”, and compare it with the corresponding Laeken indicator adopted by Eurostat.     

Hispanic Concentrated Poverty in Traditional and New Destinations, 2010–2014

This paper examines patterns of Hispanic concentrated poverty in traditional, new, and minor destinations. Using data from 2010 to 2014 from the American Community Survey, we find that without controlling for group characteristics, Hispanics experience a lower level of concentrated poverty in new destinations compared to traditional gateways. Metropolitan level factors explain this difference, including ethnic residential segregation, the Hispanic poverty rate, and the percentage of Hispanics who are foreign born. Overall, this study sheds new light on the Hispanic geographic dispersal in the United States and offers support for the argument that the Hispanic settlement into new destinations is associated with lower levels of concentrated poverty.     

中国西部城市贫困问题研究--以甘肃省为例

城市贫困已成为我国现今城市发展中的一个突出问题。本文在对贫困相关概念界定的基础上,通过对我国西部地区城市贫困现状的分析,揭示出其产生和扩大的深刻原因并由此提出一系列可供选择的政策建议。     

从上海看中国老年人口贫困与保障

文章在上海实地调研的基础上 ,从理论和实际两个方面探讨了老年人口贫困和保障问题。认为老年贫困人口问题将是我国社会主义初级阶段长期面临的严峻挑战。因此 ,我们一定要密切关注人口老龄化的发展趋势 ,结合中国的实际情况 ,因地因时地采取应对措施 ,积极预防和治理老年人口贫困问题     

Measuring Change Over Time in Socio-economic Deprivation and Health in an Urban Context: The Case Study of Genoa

Poverty and disability are interrelated, but data that can disentangle to what extent one causes the other and vice versa is not available. However, data from Vietnam allows us to examine this interrelationship in a way not done previously. Using small area estimation techniques, we uncover three findings not yet found in the literature. First, disability prevalence rates vary significantly within a country even at the district level. Second, the poverty gap between people with and without disabilities also varies at the district level. And most importantly, the size of that gap lessens based on district characteristics that can be affected by policy. Districts with better health care and infrastructure, such as road and health services, show less of a link between disability and poverty, supporting the hypothesis that improvements in infrastructure and rehabilitation service can lessen the impact of disability on families with disabled members.     

Multidimensional Measurement of Poverty Among Women in Sub-Saharan Africa

Since the seminal work of Sen, poverty has been recognized as a multidimensional phenomenon. The recent availability of relevant databases renewed the interest in this approach. This paper estimates multidimensional poverty among women in fourteen Sub-Saharan African countries using the Alkire and Foster multidimensional poverty measures, whose identification method is based on a counting approach. Four dimensions are considered: assets, health, schooling and empowerment. The results show important differences in poverty among the countries of the sample. The multidimensional poverty estimates are compared with some alternative measures such as the Human Development Index, income poverty, asset poverty and the Gender-related Development Index. It is found that including additional dimensions into the analysis leads to country rankings different from those obtained with the mentioned four measures. Decompositions by geographical area and dimension indicate that rural areas are significantly poorer than urban ones and that a lack of schooling is, in general, the highest contributor to poverty. The paper also conducts robustness and sensitivity analyses of the multidimensional estimates with respect to the number of dimensions in which deprivation is required in order to be considered poor, as well as to the poverty lines within each dimension. Several cases of dominance between countries are found in the first robustness test.     

中国城乡弱相对贫困测算及时空演变：2012—2018

相对贫困的识别和测算是瞄准贫困人口和制定减贫政策的基础,但常用于识别相对贫困人口的比例收入法和测度相对贫困程度的FGT指数在理论基础、比例设定和贫困性质方面遭到质疑。采用基于社会融入成本理论的弱相对贫困人口识别方法,及与弱相对贫困线相适应的分层可加综合贫困指数,且考虑与现阶段我国绝对贫困线衔接性及国际标准的可比性,使用2012—2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据估计了中国城乡收入(消费)弱相对贫困线,并测算分析了中国城乡收入(消费)弱相对贫困程度及时空演变特征。研究表明,基于弱相对贫困线构造的综合贫困指数兼顾绝对贫困和相对贫困,可以避免传统FGT指数分别测度绝对贫困和相对贫困时动态变化趋势出现分歧的问题,可更为直观地综合评估经济增长和扶贫政策的减贫效应。无论城乡,尽管不平等导致相对贫困始终处于高位水平,但绝对贫困更大的下降幅度使得中国收入(消费)弱相对贫困程度仍呈稳健下降趋势。从社会融入成本角度出发,建议未来考虑住房成本和子女养育成本,分家庭类型进一步细化弱相对贫困标准。本研究有助于进一步分类瞄准弱相对贫困人口,监测弱相对贫困程度演变并综合评估减贫效应。     

Chronic and Transient Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty in the Philippines: Evidence Using a Simple Spells Approach

This paper uses panel data and two welfare indicators, namely per capita expenditure and per capita food expenditure, to determine the frequency that the households enter poverty and food poverty in the Philippines. Unlike other studies, this paper attributes similar factors to explain transient and chronic poverty but finds that these factors are more pronounced for the chronic case. Significant factors that contribute to both chronic and transient poverty and food poverty are the household heads’ low educational level, affiliation in economically unstable and risky occupations such as those in the agriculture, fishery and resource sectors and those who are unskilled laborers, the lack of health insurance and high dependency burden. The paper also finds that that vulnerability to poverty and food poverty in the Philippines is high especially in the rural districts and areas with armed conflict. Households that experience higher earnings, new job, abundant harvest, better health or receipt of remittance/inheritance are less likely to be chronically poor. Shocks related to labor market affect both transient and chronic food poverty while natural calamities or health deterioration of any household member increase the probability of the household falling into chronic food poverty. Policy suggestions to address both types of poverty are provided.