Lifespan Dispersion in Times of Life Expectancy Fluctuation: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced considerable instability in mortality since the 1960s. Long periods of stagnating life expectancy were followed by rapid increases in life expectancy and, in some cases, even more rapid declines, before more recent periods of improvement. These trends have been well documented, but to date, no study has comprehensively explored trends in lifespan variation. We improved such analyses by incorporating life disparity as a health indicator alongside life expectancy, examining trends since the 1960s for 12 countries from the region. Generally, life disparity was high and fluctuated strongly over the period. For nearly 30 of these years, life expectancy and life disparity varied independently of each other, largely because mortality trends ran in opposite directions over different ages. Furthermore, we quantified the impact of large classes of diseases on life disparity trends since 1994 using a newly harmonized cause-of-death time series for eight countries in the region. Mortality patterns in CEE countries were heterogeneous and ran counter to the common patterns observed in most developed countries. They contribute to the discussion about life expectancy disparity by showing that expansion/compression levels do not necessarily mean lower/higher life expectancy or mortality deterioration/improvements.     

Shifting Childrearing to Single Mothers: Results from 17 Western Countries

We investigate how recent changes in the Western family have affected childhood living arrangements. For 17 developed countries, we use multistate life table techniques to estimate childhood trajectories of coresi‐dence with biological fathers versus other maternal partners. In all countries childhood exposure to single parenting is more often caused by parental separation than out‐of‐partnership childbearing. Both exposure to single parenting and expectancy of childhood spent with a single non‐cohabiting mother vary widely across countries, with the United States exhibiting the highest levels of each at early 1990s rates. The greatest international variations concern parental cohabitation—its prevalence, durability, and the degree to which its increase has compensated for a decrease in the expectancy of childhood spent with married parents. Overall, we find little evidence of international convergence in childrearing arrangements, except that in countries where parental marriage has declined over time, childrearing has predominantly shifted to single mothers.     

Three faces of international inequality

Recent studies of international inequality have focused mostly on the trend in international income inequality. This article extends the analysis of international inequality to also include inequalities in education and health. Analyses of time-series data for more than 100 countries show that international income inequality declined from 1980 to 2003 as several large, poor Asian countries outpaced many Western countries in national income growth. By contrast, international health inequality followed a U-shaped trend, falling in the 1980s before rising in the 1990s. The turnaround in health inequality coincides with a trend of declining life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa. International educational inequality experienced the sharpest recent decline, spurred by the global expansion of formal schooling. These findings confirm that there is more to international inequality than income inequality alone and suggest that patterns of inequality in the current era of globalization are likely more complex than many leading theories suggest.     

The Trend in International Health Inequality

Estimates of average life expectancy for 169 countries are used to compute the trend in between‐country health inequality from 1980 to 2000. Results show that inequality in the distribution of life expectancy across countries declined in the 1980s, but then increased through the 1990s. The recent turnaround in between‐country health inequality is significant because it reverses a long‐term trend of declining inequality across countries that began in the first half of the twentieth century. The primary cause of rising inequality across countries is declining life expectancy in sub‐Saharan Africa, largely owing to HIV/AIDS. Life expectancy in sub‐Saharan Africa holds the key to the future trend in between‐country inequality.     

Longevity Advances in High‐Income Countries, 1955–96

The advance of life expectancy within high‐income countries from 1955 to 1996 is well represented by a straight‐line trend. This explains more of the variance on average, and in 19 of 21 high‐income countries, than logged or unlogged age‐standardized death rates. Change in life expectancy in individual countries over this period was partially predicted by a country's level relative to the rest of this group of high‐income countries and partially by a country's own prior rate of advance, with substantial convergence toward the group mean for both measures.     

On the scale of global demographic convergence, 1950-2000

The second half of the twentieth century saw global demographic change of unprecedented magnitude, with pronounced falls in both mortality and fertility in many developing countries. This article assesses the extent to which these changes have led to the convergence of demographic patterns around the world. It considers not just the levels of fertility and mortality in each country at different points in time, but also the size of each population. It also disaggregates China and India into their constituent provinces and states in order to provide estimates for units more typical of the size of the populations of other countries. The note presents proportions of the world's population according to the levels of life expectancy and total fertility they experienced in the early 1950s, the late 1970s, and around 2000. The graphs and tables thus produced give a convenient and novel way to view the scale and nature of demographic convergence over the last 50 years.     

Life Expectancy during the Great Depression in Eleven European Countries

The recent global economic recession has renewed interest in knowing whether a declining economy affects population health. Understanding the extreme case of the Great Depression may inform the current debate as well as theory regarding biological and behavioral adaptations to unwanted economic change. We test the hypothesis, recently suggested in the literature, that period life expectancy at birth improved during the Great Depression. We applied time‐series methods to annual period life expectancy data of the civilian population from eleven European countries. Methods control for trends and other forms of autocorrelation in life expectancy that could induce spurious associations. We cannot reject the null hypothesis that period life expectancy at birth during the Great Depression remained within the interval forecasted from historical values. Additional analyses using an automated, rule‐based methodology also cannot reject the null hypothesis. During the most severe phase of the Great Depression, period life expectancy in eleven European countries generally did not rise above expected levels.     

Global patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women

This paper focuses on patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women around the globe in the year 2000, and on the determinants of differences in disease and injury for older ages. Our study uses data from the World Health Organization for women and men in 191 countries. These data include a summary measure of population health, healthy life expectancy (HALE), which measures the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and a complementary measure of the loss of health (disability-adjusted life years or DALYs) due to a comprehensive set of disease and injury causes. We examine two topics in detail: (1) cross-national patterns of female-male differences in healthy life expectancy at age 60; and (2) identification of the major injury and disability causes of disability in women at older ages. Globally, the male-female gap is lower for HALE than for total life expectancy. The sex gap is highest for Russia (10.0 years) and lowest in North Africa and the Middle East, where males and females have similar levels of healthy life expectancy, and in some cases, females have lower levels of healthy life expectancy. We discuss the implications of the findings for international health policy.     

The contribution of a history of heavy smoking to Scotland's mortality disadvantage

Scotland has a lower life expectancy than any country in Western Europe or North America, and this disadvantage is concentrated above age 50. According to the Human Mortality Database, life expectancy at age 50 has been lower in Scotland than in any other developed country since 1980. Relative to 15 developed countries that we have chosen for comparison, Scotland's life expectancy in 2009 at age 50 was lower by an average of 2.5?years for women and 1.6?years for men. We estimate that Scottish women lost 3.6?years of life expectancy at age 50 as a result of smoking, compared to 1.4?years for the comparison countries. The equivalent figures among men are 3.1 and 2.1?years. These differences are large enough for the history of heavy smoking in Scotland to account both for most of the shortfall in life expectancy for both sexes and for the country's unusually narrow sex differences in life expectancy.     

The cost of uncertain life span

Much uncertainty surrounds the length of human life. The standard deviation in adult life span is about 15 years in the USA, and theory and evidence suggest that it is costly. I calibrate a utility-theoretic model that shows that 1 year in standard deviation is worth about half a life year. Differences in variance exacerbate health inequalities between and among rich and poor countries. Accounting for the cost of life-span variance appears to amplify recently discovered patterns of convergence in world average human well-being because the component of variance due to infant mortality has exhibited even more convergence than life expectancy.     

Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950–1990

Economic growth depends on human resources and human needs. The demographic age structure shapes both of these factors. We study five-year data from the OECD countries 1950–1990 in the framework of an age structure augmented neoclassical growth model with gradual technical adjustment. The model performs well in both pooled and panel estimations. The growth patterns of GDP per worker (labor productivity) in the OECD countries are to a large extent explained by age structure changes. The 50–64 age group has a positive influence, and the group above 65 contributes negatively, while younger age groups have ambiguous effects. However, the mechanism behind these age effects is not yet resolved. Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 2 July 1998     

Global Patterns of Healthy Life Expectancy for Older Women

SUMMARY

This paper focuses on patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women around the globe in the year 2000, and on the determinants of differences in disease and injury for older ages. Our study uses data from the World Health Organization for women and men in 191 countries. These data include a summary measure of population health, healthy life expectancy (HALE), which measures the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and a complementary measure of the loss of health (disability-adjusted life years or DALYs) due to a comprehensive set of disease and injury causes. We examine two topics in detail: (1) cross-national patterns of female-male differences in healthy life expectancy at age 60; and (2) identification of the major injury and disability causes of disability in women at older ages. Globally, the male-female gap is lower for HALE than for total life expectancy. The sex gap is highest for Russia (10.0 years) and lowest in North Africa and the Middle East, where males and females have similar levels of healthy life expectancy, and in some cases, females have lower levels of healthy life expectancy. We discuss the implications of the findings for international health policy.     

Temporal variation in the relationship between environmental demands and well-being: a panel analysis of developed and less-developed countries

This study assesses the degree to which the relationship between the environmental demands of countries (measured as ecological footprint per capita) and well-being (measured as life expectancy) has changed over the last several decades (1961–2007) and whether the nature and extent of these changes differ between developed and less-developed countries. Pooled ordinary least squares regression results indicate that decoupling has occurred among developed countries, where the relationship between ecological footprint and life expectancy weakened substantially over time, becoming negative in later years. In less-developed countries, the relationship has intensified substantially, with the effect of ecological footprint on life expectancy becoming stronger over time. Fixed-effects regression results provide similar results for developed countries but indicate slight decoupling between increases in ecological footprint and life expectancy among less-developed countries. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of contraction and convergence approaches to sustainability.     

Exploring Differences in Financial Literacy Across Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics and Institutions

We explore microdata from the OECD/INFE survey on financial literacy of adult individuals. We find considerable differences in financial literacy across countries and decompose them into a part explainable by varying individual characteristics and a remainder. We show that individual characteristics matter with regard to differences in average financial literacy, but do not fully explain the gaps. We decompose financial literacy across its distribution and directly relate it to different policies. We then correlate the unexplained differences to institutional macroeconomic variables. We find strong correlations between unexplained differences and life expectancy, social contributions rate, PISA math scores, and internet usage, suggesting room for harmonization of environments across countries to close the financial literacy gap.

     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession

A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and study the impact of the Great Recession in 2007–2009. Despite declines of one to two years following the recession, in 2008–2011, American men aged 50 still spent 13 years, or two-fifths of their remaining life, working; American women of the same age spent 11 years, or one-third of their remaining life, in employment. Although educational differences in working life expectancy have been stable since the mid-1990s, racial differences started changing after the onset of the Great Recession. Our results show that although Americans generally work longer than people in other countries, considerable subpopulation heterogeneity exists. We also find that the time trends are fluctuating, which may prove troublesome as the population ages. Policies targeting the weakest performing groups may be needed to increase the total population trends.     

How Long Do We Live?

Period life expectancy is calculated from age‐specific death rates using life table methods that are among the oldest and most widely employed tools of demography. These methods are rarely questioned, much less criticized. Yet changing age patterns of adult mortality in countries with high life expectancy provide a basis for questioning the conventional use of life tables. This article argues that when the mean age at death is rising, period life expectancy at birth as conventionally calculated overestimates life expectancy. Estimates of this upward bias, ranging from 1.6 years for the United States and Sweden to 3.3 years for Japan for 1980–95, are presented. A similar bias in the opposite direction occurs when mean age at death is falling. These biases can also distort trends in life expectancy as conventionally calculated and may affect projected future trends in period life expectation, particularly in the short run.     

HIV/AIDS and Cross-National Convergence in Life Expectancy

This article analyzes the effect of HIV/AIDS on the cross-national convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing three scenarios. One is based on historical and future best-guess estimated values given the existence of the epidemic. The second scenario assumes that the effect of the epidemic is much worse than expected. The final scenario is based on hypothetical values derived from estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is removed. For life expectancy, convergence becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting by country population size) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. These results are mainly attributable to the epidemic since all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear in the “No AIDS scenario.” Given the existence of the epidemic, however, the reduced degree of inequality in life expectancy attained by 1985 is only expected to be achieved again by 2015 at the earliest. If the epidemic turns out much worse than expected, divergence could continue to 2050. No divergence is to be expected in infant and child survival rates in any of the scenarios.     

Energy, population and the environment: exploring Canada’s record on CO2 emissions and energy use relative to other OECD countries

Across the OECD, Canada??s record on CO₂ emissions is particularly poor, with overall emissions up 32% over the 1990?C2007 period. The current paper seeks to better understand this situation by making systematic comparisons of Canada with other OECD countries. For Canada overall, the rapid increase in emissions over the 1990?C2007 period can be explained by several factors, including major population growth, increased affluence (although to a lesser extent than elsewhere in the OECD), a continued dependence on fossil fuels, while continuing to increase its overall demand for energy. While the energy intensity of Canada??s economy has declined somewhat over recent years, it actually lagged behind most OECD countries on this front and remains one of the most energy intense economies in the world (2nd highest in the OECD on our indicator of energy intensity). While there are many factors responsible for this, Canada??s particularly energy-intensive industrial structure is certainly relevant, as is the importance of its primary sector relative to most developed nations.