Beyond single mothers: Cohabitation and marriage in the AFDC program

We investigate the extent and implications of cohabitation and marriage among U.S. welfare recipients. An analysis of four data sets (the Current Population Survey, the National Survey of Families and Households, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth) shows significant numbers of cohabitors among recipients of AFDC. An even more surprising finding is the large number of married women on welfare. We also report the results of a telephone survey of state AFDC agencies conducted to determine state rules governing cohabitation and marriage. The survey results indicate that, in a number of respects, AFDC rules encourage cohabitation. Finally, we conduct an analysis of the impact of AFDC rules on cohabitation, marriage, and single motherhood and find weak evidence in support of incentives to cohabit.     

Migration of the poor

One aspect of migration which has been largely overlooked by researchers is the migration of people receiving public assistance benefits. The migration, or lack of migration, of these people has clear policy implications. Poor people put numerous demands on the locality where they reside, including demands for welfare benefits. The research presented in this paper reveals that movers receiving AFDC payments are able to improve their economic standing more than those who do not move. It is also shown that states with a net in-migration of public assistance recipients but net out-migration of non-recipients do have higher benefit levels than states with net out-migration of recipients and net in-migration of non-recipients. Employment and income data do not show the same differences between the state types.     

The effects of the welfare system on marital dissolution

The economic theory of marriage predicts that the partners expectations of greater financial resources outside of marriage should increase the probability of marital dissolution. One potential implication is that marriages should be less stable in states with higher AFDC benefits. I study this implication empirically using data on separations and divorces among marriages involving women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. I find no supporting evidence that higher welfare benefits lead to increased rates of marital dissolution among married women with children.I thank Mary Ellen Benedict, Madeline Zavodny, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments, and Saul Hoffman for providing his data on AFDC benefits. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

The effects of family caps on the subsequent fertility decisions of never-married mothers

Family caps seek to reduce fertility among welfare recipients by denying additional cash assistance to recipients who have children while on welfare. A necessary condition for family caps to be an effective policy tool is that welfare recipients respond to financial incentives in making decisions that affect subsequent fertility outcomes. This paper uses data from the 2001 and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine whether welfare mothers respond to the incentive provided by the Aid to Families with Dependent Children/Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (AFDC/TANF) system in determining whether or not to have a second child. The results show no evidence that family caps have an effect on the subsequent childbearing of never married women.

Public assistance receipt among immigrants and natives: How the unit of analysis affects research findings

Differences between immigrant and native households in rates of welfare receipt depend on nativity differences in individual-level rates of receipt, in household size, in mean number of recipients in receiving households, and in household nativity composition. We present algebraic derivations of these relationships and use data from the 1990 and 1991 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine empirically the extent to which levels of welfare receipt for immigrants and natives are sensitive to the use of household-, family-, or individual-level units of analysis or presentation. The findings show that nativity differences are statistically significant only at the level of larger units. The results also indicate that if immigrants and natives had identical living arrangements, immigrants' household-level receipt of Supplemental Security Income would significantly exceed natives' receipt even more than it actually does, but the nativity difference in receipt of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) would reverse directions. Moreover, the level of AFDC receipt of immigrant households falls significantly below that of native households when native-born children living in households headed by immigrants are treated as if they were foreign born.     

Exiting welfare in the 1990s: Did public policy influence recipients' behavior?

This paper evaluates the association between welfare policies implemented by states in the early to mid-1990s and the rate at which female household heads with children exit AFDC for work or for non-work reasons. The results show that waiver policies requiring work, such as the work requirement and the elimination of exemptions for mothers of very young children, are associated with more rapid exits through employment. Incentive policies that make work more attractive by allowing mothers to remain eligible as earnings rise extend the period of welfare receipt. Neither time limits, the family cap, nor sanctions were related to welfare exits during this early period of welfare reform. Results suggest that other policies implemented in the 1993-1996 period, such as the EITC, may have also influenced welfare exits. In addition, the economy played an important supportive role in facilitating recipient exits from public assistance. While relatively high unemployment rates did not deter recipients from working, state prosperity increased the positive impact of work requirements on work exits.     

The determinants of a mother's choice of family structure

This study attempts to clarify the effect of welfare generosity on family structure while controlling for community mores, local labor market conditions, and other sociodemographic characteristics. In the existing AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children) literature, these latter factors have been largely ignored. The empirical analysis is conducted by linking individual-level data from the 1987 National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) with information on county-level unemployment rates, state AFDC benefits, and proxies of community mores. In particular, the detailed nature of the NSFH data set provides a unique opportunity to investigate the social and economic determinants of cohabitation, among other family structures. Local labor market conditions are found to significantly affect marriage and single-motherhood, while community conservatism is found to discourage the least conventional family structure — cohabitation. Finally, this study raises some question about the effect of AFDC policy on marriage and related events. Specifically, AFDC's statistical impact is found to be sensitive to the inclusion of an explicit measure of community conservatism in the empirical model specification.     

The influence of nonmarital childbearing on the formation of first marriages

We document a negative association between nonmarital childbearing and the subsequent likelihood of first marriage in the United States, controlling for a variety of potentially confounding influences. Nonmarital childbearing does not appear to be driven by low expectations of future marriage. Rather, it tends to be an unexpected and unwanted event, whose effects on a woman’s subsequent likelihood of first marriage are negative on balance. We find that women who bear a child outside marriage and who receive welfare have a particularly low probability of marrying subsequently, although there is no evidence that AFDC recipients have lower expectations of marriage. In addition, we find no evidence that stigma associated with nonmarital childbearing plays an important role in this process or that the demands of children significantly reduce unmarried mothers’ time for marriage market activities.     

Popular Criteria for the Welfare Deservingness of Disability Pensioners: The Influence of Structural and Cultural Factors

Research has shown that several criteria underlie people’s opinions about the welfare deservingness of benefit recipients. However, it remains unknown which factors are associated with the emphasis that people place on such criteria. Using a 2006 Dutch national survey on the welfare deservingness of disability pension recipients, we study the influence of structural and cultural factors on people’s emphasis on three deservingness criteria: control, need, and reciprocity. OLS regression analyses show that people’s emphasis on specific deservingness criteria is strengthened by structural factors that indicate the possibility of resource competition such as the following: age, lower levels of education, unemployment, and lower income. However, actual personal experience with receiving welfare benefits weakens criteria emphasis. Cultural factors such as the espousal of views from the political right and the possession of a strong work ethic are associated with a heightened emphasis on deservingness criteria.     

Immigrants' welfare use and opportunity for contact with co-ethnics

In this article we examine the relationship between immigrants' welfare use and their social capital, using the 1990 census. We measure community social capital using contact with co-ethnics and co-ethnics' economic inactivity, and examine the use of AFDC and SSI in two subpopulations: single-mother families and elderly units. Major findings are that the effects of social capital differ between immigrant single-mother families and elderly units; the effects of social capital differ between the young-at-arrival elderly and the old-at-arrival elderly; and the process of AFDC use is similar for immigrants and for natives, whereas the process of SSI use is more complicated for immigrants than for natives.     

Welfare benefits and birth decisions of never-married women

For some time now, the out-of-wedlock birthrate has been increasing rapidly in the United States. This has prompted several states to propose (and in some cases, enact) legislation to deny access to higher AFDC benefits for families in which the mother gives birth while receiving AFDC. The authors investigate whether AFDC benefit levels are systematically related to the family-size decisions of never-married women. Using a bivariate probit model with state and time fixed effects, applied to Current Population Survey data for the years 1980–1988, it is found that the basic benefit level for a family of two (one adult and one child) and the incremental benefit for a second child positively affects the family size decisions of black and Hispanic women, but not of white women. The effects are concentrated among high school dropouts (no effects are found for high school graduates). The authors conclude that rather than to uniformly deny benefits to all AFDC women that bear children, a better targeted policy might be to alter the AFDC benefit structure in such a way as to encourage single mothers to complete high school. However, being a high school dropout might be a proxy for some other underlying characteristic of the woman, and encouraging women to complete high school who otherwise would not might have no effect whatsoever on nonmarital births.     

Welfare work requirements and child well-being: Evidence from the effects on breast-feeding

A central theme of welfare reform is that recipients are required to engage in work activities. In many states, these work requirements apply to mothers whose children are a few months old, which may increase the costs and decrease the prevalence of breast-feeding. Given the substantial benefits of breast-feeding, any reduction represents an important negative consequence of these requirements. Our results suggest that in the absence of welfare reform, the national breast-feeding rate six months after birth would have been 5.5% higher in 2000. Such negative consequences of these policies must be weighed against potential benefits as states refine their welfare programs.     

Family cap provisions and changes in births and abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.     

Family cap provisions and changes in births and abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.     

How to stimulate single mothers on welfare to find a job: evidence from a policy experiment

We present the results from a policy experiment in which single mothers on welfare were stimulated to enter the labor market and increase their work experience. The aim of the policy was not per se for single mothers to leave welfare completely but to encourage them to find a job if only a part-time job. Two policy instruments were introduced: an earnings disregard and job creation. The experiment was performed at the municipality level in the Netherlands, a country with relatively high benefits and low incentives for single mothers to leave welfare for work. In our analysis, we make a distinction between native and immigrant welfare recipients. For immigrant single mothers, we find a positive employment effect of an earnings disregard. Job creation in addition to the earnings disregard increased working hours for some groups of single mothers. Although the outflow from welfare was not affected, welfare expenditures were reduced.     

The effect of welfare eligibility on the labor force participation of women of Mexican origin in California

The relationship between AFDC, Food Stamp, and Medi-Cal Program eligibility, on the one hand, and labor force participation, on the other, was analyzed by comparing the labor force participation rates of women of Mexican origin who were fully eligible for these programs with those of less eligible women. Marital status, husband's income, and legal residence in the United States were used to define levels of program eligibility for this sample. The effects of education, English fluency, age, the number and ages of children, and the number of other adults in the household (excluding the mother and spouse) were controlled in logistic regression procedures. The results of the multivariate analyses show that AFDC, food stamps, and Medi-Cal combined inhibit the labor force participation of unmarried mothers. There is no evidence, however, that food stamps and Medi-Cal influence the labor force participation of married mothers. Earnings information on this sample of California women indicate that welfare benefits for unmarried mothers are highly competitive with net earnings, primarily because of the cost childcare. The data imply that free or subsidized childcare would increase labor force participation and reduce AFDC enrollment.     

Will workfare work? Job availability for welfare recipients in rural and urban America

Ongoing concern over welfare dependency has stimulated the US Government to enact welfare reform legislation that features work requirements. Under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996, millions of able-bodied welfare recipients will now be expected to find work within two years. We analyze data from the March 1994 Current Population Survey to address the neglected question of whether a sufficient number of jobs will be available for those looking for work. Using two methods to estimate job availability, and a variety of assumptions about which welfare recipients will be required to work, we estimate that as few as 18 and as many as 54 welfare recipients and other unemployed individuals would be competing for each available job. Separate analyses by residence provided equivocal evidence on whether metropolitan or nonmetropolitan welfare recipients will have the more difficult time finding gainful employment.     

The roles of child support enforcement and welfare in non-marital childbearing

This paper examines the effects of stronger child support enforcement and declines in welfare benefits on changes in non-marital childbearing between 1980 and 1996. Economic theory suggests that stricter child support enforcement will increase the costs of children for unwed fathers, making them less likely to have a child outside marriage. Reductions in welfare benefits also are expected to increase the costs of non-marital childbearing for both mothers and fathers. We examine these hypotheses, using aggregate state-level data and fixed effects regression models to identify the effects of policies on non-marital birth rates. We find that both stricter child support enforcement and declines in welfare benefits deter non-marital births. However, the estimated effects of child support enforcement are more robust and larger than those of welfare. The estimates imply that in the 1980–1996 period, increases in child support enforcement led to a decline in non-marital birth rates in the range of 6% to 9%, whereas decreases in welfare benefits led to a decline in the range of 2% to 4%. Received: 28 June 2000/Accepted: 17 September 2001     

Welfare benefits,economic opportunities,and out-of-wedlock births among black teenage girls

This article presents a model of teenage out-of-wedlock births that incorporates the effects of both welfare and nonwelfare economic opportunities. We construct measures of the likely "medium-run" income available to a teenage girl in the event of an out-of-wedlock birth and in the absence of a birth and then estimate a logit model to determine their importance in influencing fertility behavior. The model is estimated with data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on nearly 900 black teenagers. We find weak and statistically insignificant positive effects of Aid to Families With Dependent Children (AFDC) benefit levels and stronger and significant negative effects of economic opportunities on the probability of AFDC-related out-of-wedlock teen births.     

Poverty in America: trends and new patterns

Poverty trends in the US between 1959-83, as revealed by census data, are described, 1984 government expenditures on social programs are delineated, contrasting explanations put forth to explain the increase in poverty between 1978-83 are critically examined, and some practical suggestions for reducing poverty levels are made. Between 1959-73, the absolute number and the proportion of individuals below the poverty line decreased respectively from 39.5-23.0 million and from 22.4%-11.1%. Between 1973-78, poverty rates fluctuated somewhat. Between 1978-83, the absolute number and proportion of poor increased respectively from 24.5-35.3 million and from 11.4%-15.2%. Between 1978-83, the depth of poverty also increased. The proportion of families with incomes below US$5000 increased from 3.9%-5.7%, and the median income for poor families declined. Some experts, such as Charles Murray, attribute the increase in poverty to federal poverty programs. Murray maintains that poverty programs undermine the work ethic and encourage the creation of female headed households. Others, including Michael Harrington, attribute the increase in poverty to structural changes in the economy and to changes in the composition of the population. Harrington maintains that the decline in the number of manufacturing jobs, the lack of employment opportunities for unskilled workers, and the entry of the baby boom generation into the working age population makes it increasingly difficult for young males, and especially for black males, to find jobs offering financial security. The present analysis provided more support for the latter explanation than for the former explanation. Numerous studies indicate that there is considerable movement in and out of poverty and that most individuals are poor because they cannot find jobs. The American public has a mistaken impression about the amount of money expended by the government to provide assistance to the poor. The bulk of the government's social expenditures goes to the middle class. There are 4 major types of social benefit programs. These are 1) non-means-tested cash assistance programs, including social security retirement and disability and unemployment insurance; 2) means-tested cash assistance programs, including Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC); 3) noncash, non-means-tested benefits, such as Medicare for the elderly; and 4) noncash, means-tested benefits, such as Medicaid. In fiscal year 1984, means-tested benefits amounted to US$61.0 billion. In contrast, non-means-tested benefits amounted to US$262.7 billion. Female headed households, especially among blacks increased considerably in recent years; however, the major reason for this increase is the shortage of black males with incomes sufficiently large to support a family. Recommendations for reducing poverty without seriously increasing the federal deficit are 1) to provide relevant job training so that all able-bodied individuals can become productive taxpayers; 2) to change the tax code so the poor do not have to pay taxes; 3) to standardize AFDC payments throughout the country and to tie the payments to the inflation rate; 4) to expand successful programs, e.g., Headstart, and; 5) to reinstitute programs to help welfare mothers become independent.