Political Economy,Ecological Modernization,and Energy Use: A Panel Analysis of State‐Level Energy Use in the United States, 1960–1990

The present study will examine energy consumption from two competing perspectives within environmental social science: political economy and ecological modernization. These frameworks will be evaluated with a fixed‐effects panel analysis of state‐level energy use between the years 1960 and 1990, based on data for 50 states plus Washington, DC, from the Energy Information Administration’s State Energy Data System. The results from the panel analysis show that the increase in total energy use between 1960 and 1990 depended on both increasing economic growth and urbanization, even after controlling for population size, industrialization, and inflation‐adjusted energy prices. The results challenge the claims of ecological modernization theory and support a political economic approach to the study of changes in energy use. In the conclusion, the study’s findings will be framed within the context of the early twenty‐first‐century economic and ecological crises. In light of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this study can also further advance the renewable energy debate by reminding us of the social drivers of energy use.     

上海能源、环境与产业选择之间的关系研究

在上海经济持续发展的同时，必然带来能源消耗和污染排放的增加。在资源和环境的硬约束条件下，通过进一步调整产业结构，保证经济持续稳定增长，是我们面临的最紧迫的难题。首先，要提高能源保障能力，不断优化能源结构，加快提升能源技术研发能力和产业能级。其次，要加快调整能源结构。再次，加快突破提升能源产业。要以新能源技术为突破口，加速新能源技术创新，要使新能源利用更安全、更经济，为上海清洁能源利用和产业结构升级带来了历史性机遇。     

Demography of Indian aging, 2001-2051

India is the second largest country in the world, with 72 million elderly persons above 60 years of age as of 2001, compared to China's 127 million. One of the objectives of this paper is to assess the emerging scenario of elderly for the first half of the 21st century. According to projections, the elderly in the age group 60 and above is expected to increase from 71 million in 2001 to 179 million in 2031, and further to 301 million in 2051; in the case of those 70 years and older, they are projected to increase from 27 million in 2001 to 132 million in 2051. Among the elderly persons 80 and above, they are likely to improve their numbers from 5.4 million in 2021 to 32.0 million in 2051. The increasing number and proportion of elderly will have a direct impact on the demand for health services and pension and social security payments. Mobilizing resources for geriatric care and providing sufficient maintenance for the elderly will emerge as a major responsibility for heath-care providers and pension economists.     

Demography of Indian Aging, 2001-2051

Summary

India is the second largest country in the world, with 72 million elderly persons above 60 years of age as of 2001, compared to China's 127 million. One of the objectives of this paper is to assess the emerging scenario of elderly for the first half of the 21st century. According to projections, the elderly in the age group 60 and above is expected to increase from 71 million in 2001 to 179 million in 2031, and further to 301 million in 2051; in the case of those 70 years and older, they are projected to increase from 27 million in 2001 to 132 million in 2051. Among the elderly persons 80 and above, they are likely to improve their numbers from 5.4 million in 2021 to 32.0 million in 2051. The increasing number and proportion of elderly will have a direct impact on the demand for health services and pension and social security payments. Mobilizing resources for geriatric care and providing sufficient maintenance for the elderly will emerge as a major responsibility for heath-care providers and pension economists.     

World and regional labour force trends and prospects

Changes in fertility during 1970-1985 will not have any effect on the composition of the world work force until 1985 because the people who will be of working age at that time have already been born. However, fertility for this period will directly influence the size of the age group 15-30 in the year 2000. Moreover, fertility trends for this period will have an indirect effect on participation of women in the labor force. The number of people in the labor force has proportionately followed total population. Just as total population is projected to increase in the single decade 1970-1980 by an amount equal to its size in 1750, so the labor force will increase by 360 million during the 1980's (its original size in 1750). By the end of the present century the world labor force may well number some 2,6000 million, reaching 3,000 million by the year 2010; 4,000 million by 2030; 5,000 million by 2070; and stabilizing at about 5,200 million by the end of the 21st century. There will be great regional variations. Increases will range from 20-35% in Europe and the U.S.S.R. to 100-120% in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America. For East Asia and North America the increases may amount to 60% by the year 2000 and 100% by 2050. In 1970 less developed regions had 2/3 the world's labor force; by 2000 they will have 3/4. In 1970 about 20% of the labor force in more developed regions were working in agriculture while in less developed regions 2/3 were so engaged. In other terms, in more developed regions 10 farmers supported 108 persons while in less developed regions 10 farmers supported only 38. According to Food and Agriculture Organization projections, by 2000 only 3.5% of the labor force in developed regions and 43.5% in less developed regions will be in agriculture. Differences in gross national product between regions is striking. In 1970 the less developed regions contained 70% of world population, 67% of the world labor force, 87% of the world agricultural labor, and produced 15% of its wealth. There are also sharp contrasts in participation in the labor force. In less developed countries more youths and older persons are in the labor force while in developed countries more women work. By the year 2000 female activity rates in more developed regions will increase for ages 20-64 and decrease for those under 20 and over 64. This will raise female participation in the labor force to 35%. In less developed regions female participation is expected to decline. The proportion of young workers is expected to increase in less developed and decline in more developed regions; the same will be true for older workers. The dependency burden will be concentrated among the young in less developed nations; in more devel oped regions there will be larger numbers of older dependents.     

Community water system privatization and the water access crisis

One of the most pressing challenges faced by the global community in the 21st century is the need to extend potable water access to more than 2 billion people across the planet. Debates concerning how such a project should be undertaken have centered on whether or not water utility systems would be more effectively managed and extended under private ownership than they might be under public ownership models. In this article I explore this issue, providing an overview of recent research concerning the ways in which community water system ownership regimes succeed, and fail, in their attempts to provide access to readily available potable water for as much of the population as is possible. In the course of doing so I provide a discussion of the form that debates over privatization of water resources have taken, as well as how the act of privatization has been found to impact access to water systems and the quality of the service they provide. Ultimately, I explain that, while creative solutions to the water access crisis are clearly necessary, privatization appears to be an inadequate and often counterproductive means of addressing the issue.     

上海工业节能减排结构研究

对上海33个工业行业能源消耗、二氧化碳排放结构变化因素的研究发现:1.上海工业能耗和碳排放主要集中在石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业。2.化学原料及化学制品制造业是上海工业能耗、碳排放的重点行业,从变化因素分析,能源消耗、碳排放强度的增长是能耗上升、碳排放增加的最主要因素。黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业对节能减排的贡献度最显著,从变化因素分析,能源消耗、碳排放强度的变化是推进节能减排的主要因素。3.化学原料及化学制品制造业和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业可以通过内部产品结构的调整和升级赢得持续发展的空间,但是石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业的发展需要对企业结构的区域布局。     

What is mixed in welfare mix? Welfare ideologies at stake in the Lithuanian case of social service delivery

The article deals with the development of social welfare and social services in Lithuania by describing cultural contexts and disclosing evaluations of social service providers and recipients and needs of social service delivery. The authors of the article discuss the changing role of the state, pose a question as to what the institutions and the actors are and to what extent should they participate in the creation of social welfare. One of the aims of this paper is to describe the development of the welfare mix in Lithuania, by showing that welfare is inevitably woven into the historical, economic, political and social context; the distinctive cultural configuration of the welfare mix in social services delivery in Lithuania is revealed. Empirical research (survey of social services recipients and providers) presented in the article discloses that actors of social services delivery experience tension and ambiguity between the demand of neoliberal policy to choose and be responsible and the expectation that the state will participate in the social service market. At the same time social services recipients and providers express a need for different actors to take an active part in the welfare system.     

向低碳能源转型以缓解气候变化——以中国、印度为例

中国和印度都相当依赖高碳含量化石燃料。本文阐述两国向低碳能源转型的意义，它不仅能减轻对气候变化的负面影响’，还能令经济增长。文中涉及3个案例——中国的电力部门、北京的经济部门以及印度农村还没通电的家庭——它们都减少了排放温室气体和使用能源，但却增加了成本。可见要为气候友好型低碳经济作出贡献，是需要资金支持和技术转移的。     

HOUSING MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF ENERGY-SAVING DURABLE GOOD INVESTMENTS

Energy conservation in the residential sector depends, in large measure, upon the willingness of builders and homeowners to invest in the durable goods which result in an energy efficient house. Since these durable goods generally become attached permanently to the dwelling unit and since ownership of the unit is likely to change within the expected lifetime of the installed equipment, the incentive to invest in conservation measures depends upon the efficiency of the housing market in capitalizing the financial benefits of future fuel savings. This paper examines housing market efficiency in this regard by first estimating an hedonic price index with the annual fuel bill included as an explicit attribute of the structure. Then, from the estimated hedonic price of a one-dollar reduction in annual fuel costs and assumed fuel price escalation rates and remaining lifetimes of the equipment, implicit housing market discount rates are calculated. The relatively low estimated discount rates indicate that the housing market performs efficiently in capitalizing future fuel savings.     

Promoting behavioral change towards lower energy consumption in the building sector

Climate change and environmental issues have been increasingly in the forefront of the media and government agendas. However, despite much discussion and fanfare, little has been done in the way of serious commitment and clear course of actions since the adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 to bring carbon emissions to sustainable levels. To tackle the immensity of the climate change challenge, a paradigm shift in understanding is necessary to balance the course of global human development with energy demand and consumption patterns. Accounting for over 40% of global energy demand and more than 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, the building sector offers the greatest mitigation potential for reducing carbon emissions in both the short and long term, with positive implications for a range of associated sectors and industries. Promoting behavioral change among end-users for reduced energy consumption as well as encouraging the building industry to embrace sustainable design, low-carbon construction practices and materials, and renewable technologies, is fundamental to mitigating the impact of the built environment on planetary biospheres and preserving quality of life for generations to come. This paper starts by drawing attention to the building sector and related EU policy, outlining the challenges and opportunities for reducing energy consumption and carbon emission levels. Such policy provides the essential framework to engage stakeholders and allow supporting factors to foster progress in the sector. The paper contends that information on climate change has not led to significant improvements in meeting global targets and that what is needed is behavioral change among individuals and society as a whole. On the basis of research project experiences and literature review, it puts forth and explores five key elements contributing to behavioral change for reduced energy consumption and lower carbon emissions in the building sector, focused on: information and education; financial incentives and energy services; modern technologies and sustainable design; social and community norms; and biophilia (contact with the natural environment). The paper suggests opportunities for further research and concludes with recommendations for policy-makers and related stakeholders.     

TELEWORK: URBAN FORM,ENERGY CONSUMPTION,AND GREENHOUSE GAS IMPLICATIONS

A primary motivation of telework policy is to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Using a numerical simulation of the standard urban model, we show telework causes sprawl, calling into question the idea that telework decreases energy consumption. Overall effects depend on wage changes due to telework, land‐use regulation such as height limits or greenbelts, and the telework participation rate. While energy consumption increases in some scenarios, emissions may fall due to changes in the energy mix between gasoline and other sources. (JEL R11, R28, C60)     

Medicaid home- and community-based services: impact of the affordable care act

The Affordable care Act (ACA) legislation of 2010 has three important voluntary provisions for the expansion of home- and community-based services (HCBS) under Medicaid: A state can choose to (1) offer a community first choice option to provide attendant care services and supports; (2) amend its state plan to provide an optional HCBS benefit; and (3) rebalance its spending on long term services and supports to increase the proportion that is community-based. The first and third provisions offer states enhanced federal matching rates as an incentive. Although the new provisions are valuable, the law does not set minimum standards for access to HCBS, and the new financial incentives are limited especially for the many states facing serious budget problems. Wide variations in access to HCBS can be expected to continue, while HCBS will continue to compete for funding with mandated institutional services.     

This Changes Nothing: The Paris Agreement to Ignore Reality

Abstract

At the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Paris, France, 30 November to 11 December 2015, an Agreement was reached by the international community including 195 countries. The Agreement has been hailed, by participants and the media, as a major turning point for policy in the struggle to address human-induced climate change. The following is a short critical commentary in which I briefly explain why the Paris Agreement changes nothing. I highlight how the Agreement has been reached by removing almost all substantive issues concerning the causes of human-induced climate change and offers no firm plans of action. Instead of substantive cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as soon as possible, the intentions of the parties promise escalation of damages and treat worst-case scenarios as an acceptable 50:50 chance. The Paris Agreement signifies commitment to sustained industrial growth, risk management over disaster prevention, and future inventions and technology as saviour. The primary commitment of the international community is to maintain the current social and economic system. The result is denial that tackling GHG emissions is incompatible with sustained economic growth. The reality is that Nation States and international corporations are engaged in an unremitting and ongoing expansion of fossil fuel energy exploration, extraction and combustion, and the construction of related infrastructure for production and consumption. The targets and promises of the Paris Agreement bear no relationship to biophysical or social and economic reality.     

An Examination of the Woodwork Effect Using National Medicaid Long-Term Services and Supports Data

A common concern in long-term services and supports (LTSS) policy is the “woodwork effect,” which has two components: (1) more people will use publicly funded services if access to home- and community-based services (HCBS) is expanded; and (2) the additional beneficiaries will increase the growth rate of LTSS expenditures. Medicaid LTSS beneficiary and utilization data starting in 1999 indicate modest growth in beneficiaries and expenditures, after adjusting for inflation and the number of people with functional impairments. The data do not provide strong evidence that the shift in Medicaid funding toward HCBS significantly increased or decreased overall Medicaid LTSS spending.     

New York City's Innovative Plan to Sustain and Improve Its Natural and Living Environment

Abstract

A proposal by PlaNYC's will reduce CO-2 emissions by 2030 and may ease urban malaise and social distress for residents in poverty. Many residents spend over 50% of their take-home income on housing with less money available for food, clothes, and other needs.     

Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs

The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disability prevalence declined between the 1982 and 1989 U.S. National Long Term Care Surveys. Among those impaired, many persons using personal assistance to meet their needs shifted to the use of assisted housing and special equipment. The relation of these trends to other changes--such as the increasing educational level of the elderly population--is examined to estimate how future changes in disability and morbidity may affect the demand for long-term care. Disabilities at specific times as well as their transition rates were examined to determine how long individuals need long-term care. The analyses suggest that, while the amount of long-term care services needed will increase rapidly, the types and amounts of services used by the U.S. elderly population will undergo significant change.     

Changes in Health,Mortality, and Disability and Their Impact on Long-Term Care Needs

The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disability prevalence declined between the 1982 and 1989 U.S. National Long Term Care Surveys. knong those impaired, many persons using personal assistance to meet their needs shifted to the use of assisted housing and special equipment. The relation of these trends to other changes-such as the increasing educational level of thc elderly population-is examined to estimate how future changes in disability and morbidity may affect the demand for long-term care. Disabilities at specific times as well as their transition rates were examined to determine how long individuals need long-term care. The analyses suggest that, while the amount of long-term care services needed will increase rapidly, the types and amounts of services used by the U.S. elderly population will undergo significant change.     

The Real Origins of the Global Crisis

In this paper we present an interpretation of the economic and financial crisis that considers crucial the issue of income distribution (Krugman 2007; Piketty and Saez 2003; Reynolds 2008), a question that is instead ignored by more widespread interpretations. In fact, we ask what lies behind the disaster of the subprime loans and, if a more thorough view is taken, it seems clear that the true causes of the crisis lead back to income distribution, in other words the enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor. This consideration is fundamental. If the crisis were merely financial then (perhaps) the policies of financial adjustment that are currently in place might be sufficient. If instead the crisis is due to more serious causes, and nothing is more serious than distribution inequalities, then the cure must be much more profound (and difficult). In other words, the crisis will be long and severe until such inequalities are reduced, a difficult task when weighed against public intervention in aid of financial institutions.     

Long-term care: a comparison of policies and services in Israel and the United Kingdom and implications for the United States

The issue of long-term care continues to be a main concern in the United States. As the country wrestles with the development of policies and services, the experiences of Israel, whose system rests upon national insurance, and that of the United Kingdom, which is based on grants to local authorities, can act as valuable teaching aids in the development of programs in the United States. Although both countries focus on community care with virtually universal access, concern over resources is forcing each to target their services increasingly to the most frail. The findings underscore the necessity for accurate planning and adequate resources if services are to meet the needs of the frail elderly population.