Psychophysical measurement and the validity of the modern economic approach: A presentation of methods and preliminary experiments

The modern economic approach to human behavior and social interaction argues that people maximize the subjective theoretical quantity utility. This primary presupposition has resisted all empirical tests and a consensus has developed that it is unfalsifiable. A promising new approach to the problem is introduced in the paper through research on the psychophysical measurement of the marginal utility of money and commitment. The research reported here suggests that the utility function for money conforms to the power law and has an exponent of about .43. The paper also examines the advisability of broadening the utility function to cover social variables. An operationalization of the concept of commitment was examined using psychophysical techniques with the result that people appear to have utility for commitment, that a power function is involved, and that the exponent is in the vicinity of .36.     

Women's occupational attainment: The effects of work interruptions, self-selection, and unobserved characteristics

This paper addresses specification issues concerning the estimation of women's occupational attainment. Attainment models generally assume independence of error terms across equations, and whether this assumption is made or whether correlation of error terms is assumed is found to have important substantive implications, particularly with respect to education. While education affects first-job status, when first-job status is controlled, education has no significant effect on current attainment. A woman's first-job status appears, then, to be of major importance, and if she enters a job for which she is overqualified, education may not be relied upon to improve her occuppational status in the future. As in the analysis of earnings, it is important not only to include years of experience, as is usual in attainment models, but to include whether a recent work interruption has occurred. This is a significant and important variable in both the correlated and uncorrelated errors models, but the uncorrelated errors model appears to understate the magnitude of effect.     

“学区房”溢价持续扩大的原因与对策研究--来自北京市的经验分析

在当前义务教育资源供给趋向公平、地区及学校间教育差距有所缩小的背景下，我国“学区房”溢价却呈愈演愈烈之势，引起了社会的广泛关注。以北京市义务教育资源分布最具代表性的区县为例，在考察“学区房”溢价水平变化趋势的基础上，将义务教育资源竞争程度、家庭财富不平等程度和经济增长等作为内生变量，构建联立方程进行经验检验，结果表明：家庭财富不平等程度和义务教育资源竞争程度对“学区房”溢价水平变化的回归系数显著为正，且前者的相关性要显著高于后者，家庭财富不平等的加剧是近年来我国“学区房”溢价水平扩大的主要原因。因此，治理“学区房”问题不仅要均衡区域间义务教育资源的供给，更要有效遏制家庭财富不平等的加剧。     

Equality of endogamy: Statistical approaches

In research on assimilation through marriage or defining racial groups as castes or classes, it is important to be able to test the equality of endogamy of groups of differing sizes and sex ratios. A variety of proposed solutions all have major difficulties. Log-linear models constitute an improvement but still retain some undesirable properties, including an inability to deal with both the linear and quadratic dimensions of the relationship between group size and endogamy levels by focusing on one to the exclusion of the other. Moreover, in the context of studies of comparative analysis of racial groups it is handicapped by providing inconsistent results for uncollapsed categories when other groups are combined.We recommend instead the weighted least-squares methodology both to test for statistical significance of differences in endogamy and to rank racial or ethnic groups according to their degree of endogamy. This method incorporates both the linear and quadratic components influencing the diagonal frequencies in marriage studies. Linear effects (see Table 2) are stronger when endogamy is high, and quadratic effects (see Table 3) are stronger when endogamy is low, although in general both are present together. Furthermore, this approach permits separate calculation of endogamy levels by sex and provides a test to ascertain when separate statistics should be computed. It is relatively free from biases in terms of the amount of “extra credit” given smaller groups, and is invariant when categories are combined. Conditional kappa values can be utilized to judge whether a racial group was relatively closed or open (compared to other groups) and to analyze the impact of the structural characteristics of group size and sex ratio on endogamy.In one area log-linear models retain an advantage over GSK-based analyses. The former have been employed to examine patterns of intermarriage via the quasi-symmetry, quasi-independence, and other tests based on off-diagonal elements. So far no comparable method has appeared for analyzing the intermarriage or exogamy behavior using GSK. Applications of log-linear models have been less successful in dealing with endogamy or inmarriage patterns.The comparison of degrees of endogamy by the GSK approach is based on direct measurement of endogamy by racial groups, allowing for calculation of standard error figures for each group's endogamy value. The ability of the GSK method to accomplish the above—as well as provide kappas which are invariant under group collapsing, tests of equal endogamy (by sex if necessary), and a test of marginal homogeneity—may be unique.Our recommendation is that in future discussions, involving comparisons of endogamy among several populations, conditional kappas and their standard errors at the very least should be presented. The distinction between male-oriented, female-oriented, and balanced conditional kappas, as well as the use of formal tests of endogamy, homogeneity, and marginal homogeneity permits examination of important population issues. The broad applicability of these techniques derives from their provision of a basis for comparing endogamy levels, since they produce consistent results for unaggregated data regardless of how minor or intermediate groups are combined. Such analyses are fundamental for gaining a more basic insight as to whether social and cultural factors, legal discrimination, or the basic structural elements of group size and sex ratio have greater influence on assimilation or the degree of closure in racial groups in the Americas.     

How trade/GNP ratio decreases with country size

The ratio of a country's foreign trade (i.e., exports plus imports) to its GNP has a known tendency to decrease with country size. Previous studies have used a single year's data; but trade fluctuates greatly from year to year. This paper makes available a compilation of 1953–1972 export/GNP and import/GNP figures for 110 countries. The average import/GNP figure is found to correlate strongly with population size; the simple expression, Imports/GNP = 40 $\text{P}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?1</mtext><mtext>3</mtext>}}$, applies, within a factor of 2, in 94% of cases. No correlation with development level can be seen. The United States data throughout its history (1799–1972) follow the same inverse cube root pattern, but with a constant of 20 instead of 40. Correlation is much poorer in the case of export/GNP ration. Export and import figures are only marginally correlated to each other.     

Panel data and models of change: A comparison of first difference and conventional two-wave models

The method of first differences as an approach to modeling change is described and it is compared to more conventional two-wave panel models. Substantial advantages are found to the first-difference approach, especially if there are unmeasured, unchanging predictor variables in the model. It is also argued that there are substantial problems in the interpretation of results from the conventional two-wave models. Some of the analytic results are illustrated with a number of applications to the area of stressful life events.     

On choosing an indexing variable in demographic analysis

Demographic analysis has generally made use of age as its primary indexing variable, in recognition of the fact that most demographic behavior varies greatly over the life span. Yet despite the important implications involved in the choice of an indexing variable, no clear guidelines exist as to how the choice should be made. To provide such a criterion, it is proposed that the better of two sets of singly indexed rates is the set which is more highly correlated with the elements of the array of doubly indexed rates that has the two sets of singly indexed rates as marginals. The correlation criterion is then applied to several specific cases in fertility, divorce, and mortality analysis. England-Wales,1965, data suggest that, for once-married women, age is a better predictor of legitimate fertility than duration of marriage, when 5-year groupings are used for both variables. Divorce data for California males,1969, and Hungary females,1960, imply that the duration of first marriage is better than age as a predictor of divorce. For the United States,1950, the use of age and sex is preferable to the use of age and race in mortality analysis. To determine which marginal index is more closely correlated with the array variables in any specific situation, a simple test is derived which can be applied even if the array of doubly indexed variables is not known. Finally, the square of the correlation coefficient between a marginal variable and the array represents a measure of the error made by ignoring the other variable. The results for California males,1969, indicate that it is advisable to use both age and duration of marriage as index variables in divorce analysis, as either index alone accounts for less than half of the joint variability.     

中国组合式普惠型社会福利制度的构建

社会福利有两对重要的理念类型:补缺型和制度型;选择型和普惠型。前者以社会福利的政府责任为划分原则,后者以社会福利提供方式为划分原则。中国社会福利不是简单地从补缺型转型到普惠型,而是应形成新的组合式普惠型社会福利,即普惠型福利为主,选择型福利为辅,适度普惠。组合式普惠型社会福利制度的构建是以社会需要为目标定位原则,国家是社会福利提供责任的主要承担者,其他多元部门也担负着社会福利提供的次要责任,政府、市场、家庭、社区连接成为层次有别、功能互补、相互支持、互为补充的满足社会成员福利需要、体现中国传统文化价值与现代福利观念的社会福利体系。社会成员既拥有接受社会福利的公民权利,同时也承担帮助他人的社会责任和义务。普惠型社会福利是中国社会福利制度之重大转型,应当分需要、分目标、分人群、分阶段逐步构建起组合式普惠型社会福利制度。     

Dynamic models and attainment in the workplace

The two most marked trends in recent stratification studies are: (1) the shift away from a statical approach to attainment and toward a dynamical representation of achievement, and (2) the shift away from the assumption that achievement is largely a matter of individual characteristics, and toward the view that achievement is the outcome of an employer-employee exchange of productive resources for earnings and status. This paper forges a link between these parallel trends by elaborating on previous formulations of dynamic models of achievement and applying the results to the analysis of earnings attainment in an internal labor market. The modeling section of the paper joins within a single framework the growing interest in ascertaining how a given structure of opportunity shapes achievement and in determining the different points in the career line at which individual background and resource variables impact attainment. Special attention is devoted to the problems facing researchers who wish to bring a dynamic conceptualization of achievement to cross-sectional or otherwise deficient data. Although the empirical application of the various models is largely meant to be illustrative, it is of interest in its own right because it goes substantially beyond previous efforts in this area.     

Canonical analysis and optimal criterion validity scaling

This article suggests methods for forming linear composites which will have either optimum (maximum) criterion validity or an optimum ratio of valid to reliable variance. These methods may be of interest to researchers whose data contain substantial systematic but invalid components. These techniques are formally related to canonical correlation analysis, and the output from standard canonical correlation computer programs can be directly used in forming the composites.     

网络诈骗的立案困境与路径研究

网络空间的便捷性和开放性给人们带来了工具性和公共性价值,同时它的虚拟性和隐蔽性也带来了网络诈骗在内的一系列网络犯罪.网络诈骗是新兴科技在网络社会发展中出现的新问题,也是法学界面临的新课题.在网络时代,网络诈骗的表现形式和特征是什么,网络诈骗在立案方面的困境有哪些,网络诈骗立案的路径是什么,都需要我们进行深入研究.     

The anatomy of social network linkages

Social network analysis has developed impressively during the last quarter century, producing a variety of formal models and innumerable field studies. However problems of articulation have developed between the formal models and field studies. This paper is predicated upon the judgement that the solution to this difficulty lies in more (not less) highly elaborated formal models. The aim is to present a means for representing a very broad range of social phenomena using digraphs. Departing from an anatomical investigation of the linkages and nodes of conventionally represented network structures, and from a modified exchange-theoretic concept of sanction, means are presented for conceiving social interaction as flows of sanctions and messages which are depicted as arcs in a diagraph whose nodes represent social actors. Means are also presented for representing value systems, belief systems, and message content in digraph terms. Finally, several implications are discussed of the proposed conception of networks. It is suggested that its employment in the field may increase the range of phenomena formally expressible in network models, without thereby making excessive demands for inaccessible data. Second, means are proposed for experimentally realizing selected digraphs in the small-group laboratory and for coordinating field with laboratory investigations. Third, suggestions are made for integrating social network analysis with a formal decision theory, such as mathematical decision theory or bargaining theory. The result is formal models to which systems theory may be applied as a methodology for system simulations.     

基于DC-t-MSV模型的套期保值研究

利用多元随机波动率模型确定最优套期保值率:首先建立动态相关系数多元随机波动率模型(DC-MSV),再建立基于t分布的动态相关系数多元随机波动率模型(DC-t-MSV)。以沪深300股指期货数据为样本,利用以上两种模型分别结合方差最小套期保值模型计算最优套期保值率,结果表明,利用DC-t-MSV模型的套期保值效果优于DC-MSV模型。DC-t-MSV模型引入t分布,充分考虑了金融数据尖峰厚尾的特性;同时,参数估计部分采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟方法(MCMC),克服了MSV模型参数估计困难的缺点。     

Taxation and the value of nonmarket time

In this study, the value of nonmarket time is estimated for American families using the opportunity cost approach whereby the market wage is taken as a measure of the value of time and used to impute nonmarket income to each household. In cases where the market wage is not observed, a new estimation technique is used to obtain consistent estimates of the wage. It is shown that the nonmarket income of families increases with family money income and family size, but decreases with age and the number of job holders in the family. The implications for taxation are discussed.     

Occupational preferences and the quality of life

This paper focuses on the theoretical and empirical aspects of occupational choice by examining the structure of individual preferences expressed in terms of abstract characteristics. Both verbal and quantitative models were successfully tested, and a rough upper limit was set on the ability of individuals to specify their quality-of-life technology. The study was too restrictive to permit general inferences concerning the quality of life of particular occupations. However, it may be concluded from the limited empirical findings that the qualitative model captured career-living preferences almost as consistently as did the highly structured quantitative approach. The experiments extracted subjects' cognitive structures for career-living stiuations in all the richness and generality permitted by verbal expression. Although more costly to determine, such qualitative information is of considerable potential benefit to policy makers, ect., and equivalent knowledge cannot be obtained from numerical representations.     

Recursive models for categorical data

Standard methods for recursive models with continuous endogenous variables are extended to models with categorical endogenous variables. The concept of a reduced-form equation is generalized in a natural way to cover nonlinear regression functions and, in particular, models with categorical endogenous variables. Maximum-likelihood estimation and asymptotic chi-square tests are described. Two numerical examples are presented: a linear recursive two-equation model for all-categorical data, and a combined linear and logit three-equation recursive model with both categorical and continuous endogenous variables. Limitations of the present work and directions for further extension are noted.     

Qualitative variance,entropy, and correlation ratios for nominal dependent variables

In this paper we derive a measure of dispersion for a nominal variable having k ? 2 categories and compare it with ordinary quantitative variance and with entropy. We then develop two qualitative analogs to the R² statistic, one based on qualitative variance, the other on entropy. For concreteness, data from the study of The American Soldier by S. A. Stouffér, E. A. Suchman, L. C. Devinney, S. A. Star, and R. M. Williams, Jr. (1949, Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, N.J.) are used to illustrate the computations and compare these two correlation ratios for a variety of logit models. It is shown that both measures are reasonable measures of the proportion of variation of one or more qualitative dependent variables explainable by any mixture of qualitative and quantitative predictor variables. They can be used with logit, probit, dummy variable regression models, or probability models of some other type.     

高校体育教学改革的现状与对策分析

文章主要是根据目前高校体育教学的现状,提出高校体育改革的教学观念、教学内容、教学模式、评价体系和体育教师知识结构更新的相关问题,旨在为高校体育教学改革提供参考。     

A multivariate analysis of response structure: Race attitudes, 1972–1977

A particular kind of latent class model is used to characterize the unobservable variable measured by six discrete indicators of racial stance in 1972 and 1977. Methods recently introduced by Clogg and Goodman, 1982, Clogg and Goodman, 1983) for the simultaneous latent structure analysis of two multidimensional contingency tables are employed in across-year homogeneity tests on the latent class proportions. Trends in multivariate response patterns over the 5-year interval are then examined by cross-classifying the predicted latent variable with selected demographic characteristics of respondents in each year. The results indicate that (1) no significant changes in the distribution of the latent variable occurred over the 5-year time period, and (2) the status of certain demographic variables as predictors of racial stance fluctuated between the two survey years.     

Residual analysis as a technique for specifying and optimizing predictive models

This article outlines a simple procedure for reducing the error and thus increasing the size of correlation coefficients through an analysis of residual variances resulting from the inadequacy of an assumed regression model to describe the data. Usually researchers are concerned with how well their model fits the data, but in regard to certain problems, an equally important issue is how well the data fit the model. Use of the Residual Analysis Technique provides a means whereby researchers may objectively remove extreme or deviant cases, i.e., those with large residuals, from their analysis and thereby increase the predictive accuracy of their operational models. Data from 682 urban places are examined in order to provide an example of the practical utility of this procedure.