基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯经验费率厘定信用模型

B黨lmann-Straub model is one of the most famous applications of the Bayesian method for the experience rate making.However,by the traditional B黨lmann-Straub model one cannot get the unbiased posterior estimation of the parameters when there is not sufficient prior information for the structural parameters;What's more,the difficult of computing high dimension numeration limits the application of Bayesian method.This paper introduces the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulaton method based on the Gibbs sampling after analyzing the structure of the B黨lmann-Straub model and sets up the Bayesian credibility model for estimating the predictive risk premium.Also by using the results of the numeration analysis,this paper proves that from this model one can get the posterior distributions of the parameters dynamically and the posterior estimation of the censoring parameters in the situation that exists unknown parameters,as well as improve the precision of the numeration,which can be helpful to find the heterogeneity of the premium.     

An empirical Bayes' procedure for ranking players in Ryder Cup golf

We describe a model to obtain strengths and rankings of players appearing in golf's Ryder Cup. Obtaining rankings is complicated because of two reasons. First, competitors do not compete on an equal number of occasions, with some competitors appearing too infrequently for their ranking to be estimated with any degree of certainty, and second, different competitors experience different levels of volatility in results. Our approach is to assume the competitor strengths are drawn from some common distribution. For small numbers of competitors, as is the case here, we fit the model using Monte-Carlo integration. Results suggest there is very little difference between the top performing players, though Scotland's Colin Montgomerie is estimated as the strongest Ryder Cup player.     

网络游戏分级制度比较研究

网络游戏分级制度旨在唤醒社会对网络游戏的理性认识,增强游戏行业主体对网游产业的责任感和参与感,促进网络游戏行业的健康发展。网络游戏分级制度有助于解决确保网游行业健康有序地竞争与发展与保护作为网络游戏最大消费群体的未成年人权利免受侵害的两难命题。北美ESRB、欧洲PEGI、日本CERO的游戏分级制度实践为我们提供了比较研究和可资借鉴的范本。     

Heterogeneity in Parent‐reported Social Skill Development in Early Elementary School Children

Despite known risks associated with aberrant social skill development, there has been a relative dearth of literature on typical developmental changes in social skills over time. In this study, we examine systematic changes in social skills from kindergarten (typical age of 5–6 years) to third grade (typical age of 8–9 years), and focus on systematic heterogeneity across these developmental trajectories. Data came from the National Head Start—Public School Early Childhood Transition Demonstration Project (N = 6964). Mixture models provide evidence for multiple classes of individuals representing heterogeneity in the development of social skills. Classes were defined as a majority class (whose trajectories remained relatively stable over time), an increasing class (whose trajectories increased at a faster rate than the majority class), and a decreasing class (whose trajectories decreased at a faster rate than the majority class). Developmental trends accounted for a substantial proportion of the variance in social skill components. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed.     

中小企业信息化评价指标体系的构建

在一个全新的信息时代,企业信息化是企业应对激烈的市场竞争的重要手段,同时也是国民经济信息化的基础.企业信息化不仅对大型企业重要,对中小企业也意义重大.构建中小企业信息化水平评价指标体系应结合中小企业的特点,本着科学、实用、定性与定量相结合、不同行业不同规模企业区别考虑等原则,采用比较分析法和专家评分法(Delphi),涵盖信息设备及软件系统装备程度、利用程度、信息使用者水平、企业信息化环境和信息化经济效益等五方面指标内容.     

文化逻辑·商业逻辑：博弈格局中的电视学术论坛

以《百家讲坛》、《世纪大讲堂》为代表电视论坛成为当下媒介最为引人注目的现象之一。其兴盛得益于电视传播语态的改变,但在商业逻辑大行其道的媒介生态中以及在与收视率的抗衡中,思想与知识的传播受到诸多阻碍,故其生存和发展仍存在巨大变数。     

固定收益债券信用等级迁移的影响因素分析：基于财务指标的实证研究

固定收益债券的信用等级迁移问题日益引起投资者和监管者的关注,预测信用等级迁移需要找到关键指标。财务数据对企业未来业绩具有显著影响,可以反映运营企业的信用质量。当前信用等级发生迁移债券存在发行期限集中、行业特征明显、发债目的差异化等特点,通过构建Logistic模型对影响债券信用等级迁移的财务指标进行实证分析发现：偿债能力和盈利能力都对企业债的信用等级迁移具有显著影响,但是信用升级和信用降级分别对不同的财务指标敏感。发债企业要想提高债券信用等级,需提高盈利能力;投资者要想降低信用风险,应考虑减少甚至剔除投资组合中偿债能力发生显著负面变化的债券;监管者要想对发债企业进行更有效监管,需关注偿债能力指标以及主营业务利润率的变化。     

论地方政府信用评级法律制度建设

地方政府信用评级是建立规范合理的中央和地方政府债务管理及风险预警机制的重要一环,也是地方政府发行债券融资的前提。我国部分地方政府近年来的融资实践表明,良好的法律环境是政府信用评级制度的基础,相关制度的完善是准确评级的前提。因此,为确保信用评级的可靠性和正确性,必须加强信用评级的法律制度建设。其中,培育评级机构信誉资本、明确统一的监管部门、促使评级机构加强信息披露尤为重要。同时,还需对评级机构的市场准入、公司治理结构、利益冲突管理、评级的操作规则、信息发布规则、民事责任等方面的规范加以明确和细化。     

核电企业核安全文化主动涵化评价方法的研究

核安全文化是核电企业文化的重要组成部分,文章主要结合我国《核安全文化政策声明》中的要求研究核安全文化的主动涵化过程,并分析核安全文化的主要特征,提出核安全文化主动涵化评价指标和评价方法(ZXW法),这对核电企业的核安全文化建设具有一定的指导作用。