Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States

Abstract

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the well-acknowledged problem of measurement error in self-reported and even administrative data. Existing methods of addressing measurement error are complex, rely on numerous strong assumptions, and often require data from more than two periods. In this article, we investigate what can be learned about economic mobility as measured via transition matrices while formally accounting for measurement error in a reasonably transparent manner. To do so, we develop a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound transition probabilities under various assumptions on the measurement error and mobility processes. This approach is applied to panel data from the United States to explore short-run mobility before and after the Great Recession.     

Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions

Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed‐form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling‐based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed‐form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks’s method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models.     

论间接故意与过于自信的过失 --理论与实际的矛盾

间接故意与过于自信的过失是犯罪构成中主观方面最容易混淆的两种罪过,本文对这两种罪过进行了系统的比较,并对两者的实际操作中所体现的矛盾进行了分析,最后文章对矛盾提出了解决的方案。     

Projective Identification as a Contributor to Domestic Violence

Many explanations have been given as to why men batter. Rarely are deep unconscious intrapsychic processes identified as contributing reasons. One way that violent men may use their partner to fill emotional needs is through the primitive defense of projective identification. Projective identification may be invoked by men to induce the other partner to carry split off threatening parts of the self that are too anxiety provoking to retain. The occurrence of projective identification could therefore be an important intrapsychic and interpersonal dynamic that contributes to the escalation of tension prior to the violent episode.     

凯瑟琳爱情悲剧动因解析

凯瑟琳是《呼啸山庄》的女主角,凯瑟琳的爱是灵魂与肉体相脱离的情爱,充满不可调和的矛盾与冲突。她对希克厉的爱是精神之爱、灵魂之爱、自恋之爱,而对林敦的爱是肉体之爱、物化之爱、补偿之爱。凯瑟琳接受并爱着两个性格迥异的痴心汉,其对情爱的贪欲超过其心理承受的载荷,令其心理冲突绵延不辍。在两极爱欲的矛盾悖谬中,她忍受着精神的自我摧残,不只酿就了爱情悲剧,而且最终招致肉体的过早销亡。     

Estimation of Metabolic Rate Constants in PBPK‐Models from Liver Slice Experiments: What Are the Experimental Needs?

A mechanistic model is presented describing the clearance of a compound in a precision-cut liver slice that is incubated in a culture medium. The problem of estimating metabolic rate constants in PBPK models from liver slice experiments is discussed using identifiability analysis. From the identifiability problem analysis, it appears that in addition to the clearance, the compound's free fraction in the slice and the diffusion rate of the exchange of the compound between culture medium and liver slice should be identified. In addition, knowledge of the culture medium volume, the slice volume, the compound's free fraction, and octanol-water-based partition between medium and slice is presupposed. The formal solution for identification is discussed from the perspective of experimental practice. A formally necessary condition for identification is the sampling of parent compound in liver slice or culture medium. However, due to experimental limitations and errors, sampling the parent compound in the slice together with additional sampling of metabolite pooled from the medium and the slice is required for identification in practice. Moreover, it appears that identification results are unreliable when the value of the intrinsic clearance exceeds the value of the diffusion coefficient, a condition to be verified a posteriori.     

论缔约过失责任制度——兼评合同自由与合同正义

缔约过失责任制度的产生与发展是 19世纪下半叶尤其是 2 0世纪以来合同法走向现代化的重要标志之一。缔约过失责任制度的价值论基础 ,就在于诚实信用原则所体现的正义价值与合同自由原则所体现的自由价值构成相倚的两极 ,产生相互亲和的张力。加强对我国缔约过失责任制度的深入研究 ,评析其得失 ,有助于进一步完善我国缔约过失责任制度     

定期租船合同下承运人识别问题研究

在海上货物运输中，以定期租船运输货物时，无论是船东，还是承租人都可能成为承运人。如何确定海上货物运输合同责任主体是海事审判实践中亟待解决的一个理论和实际问题。该文系统分析了定期租船合同下承运人识别问题产生的渊源、承运人识别的依据及其方法，在此基础上作者提出了解决定期租船合同下承运人识别问题的初步建议。     

一种基于Web的身份鉴别策略及其实现

介绍了Java服务端网页在IBM WebSphere平台上进行电子商务系统开发的相关原理和模型,提出了一种基于Web方式的用户身份鉴别策略,改进了以往在对用户身份鉴别时需要自己输入密码的方式。整个处理流程遵循J2EE规范,并贯穿了Web应用模式的三层体系结构,在存储过程中完成认证,这种方法对提高电子商务系统的安全性有一定的现实意义。     

The Boston Area Diary Study and the Moral Citizenship of Care

This paper describes the theoretical foundations, empirical findings, and practical and philosophical implications of the Boston Area Diary Study (BADS), a study of the caring behavior of 44 participants over one calendar year. In particular, the paper presents an identification theory of care and discusses how it shaped the conceptualization, collection, and analysis of the data in a year-long diary study of daily voluntary assistance. The findings from the BADS (1) theoretically confirm the identification theory of care; (2) methodologically capture how individuals perceive and carry out caring behavior as a unity; and (3rpar; empirically document the existence of a moral citizenship in America that is substantially more vigorous than is implied by the usual indicators of civic and political citizenship.