治理我国新一轮通货膨胀的财税政策

我国新一轮的通货膨胀不是商品供不应求的简单经济矛盾引起的,而是开放经济条件下的国内经济结构失衡和对外经济失衡导致的输入型通货膨胀.实施紧缩性货币政策虽然能暂时起到抑制投资过热、控制流动性过剩和通货膨胀的作用,并不能解决我国结构性失衡的深层经济矛盾.治理我国新一轮通货膨胀,不仅需要采取"从紧"控制总量的货币政策,更需要从解决我国经济结构性失衡的深层矛盾入手,采取"从优"调整结构的财税政策.     

财政赤字货币化过程中铸币税收益问题分析

铸币税即政府发行货币所取得的收入 ,一般可理解为货币发行成本和货币面值间的差额。在通货膨胀情况下 ,货币的实际购买力下降 ,政府的实际铸币税收入小于其名义铸币税收入。铸币税问题的讨论一般是同财政赤字货币化问题相联系的。我国当前的积极财政政策是以增发国债为核心 ,财政赤字经常化。政府可以从财政赤字货币化中得到多少铸币税收入受制于三个因素 :经济增长对基础货币的需求 ,经济的实际增长率 ,以及货币需求对通货膨胀和收入的弹性     

Pseudo–Modelling of Outliers for Estimation of Regression And Time Series Models

This paper documents situations where the variance inflation model for outliers has undesirable properties. The model is commonly used to accommodate outliers in a Bayesian analysis of regression and time series models. The alternative approach provided here does not suffer from these undesirable properties but gives inferences similar to those of the variance inflation model when this is appropriate. It can be used with regression, time series, and regression with correlated errors in a unified way, and adheres to the scientific principle that inference should be based on the data after obvious outliers have been discarded. Only one parameter is required for outliers; it is interpretable as the a priori willingness to remove observations from the analysis.     

五代十国货币史初探

五代十国时期,由于铜钱缺乏,战争频繁,政治腐败,开支浩大,各国统治者为了挽救财政危机,往往铸行虚值大钱、铁钱以及铅锡等劣币,从而引起了通货膨胀、钱币贬值、物价飞涨、人民受损,这可作为今人的历史教训。     

Marginal zero-inflated regression models for count data

Data sets with excess zeroes are frequently analyzed in many disciplines. A common framework used to analyze such data is the zero-inflated (ZI) regression model. It mixes a degenerate distribution with point mass at zero with a non-degenerate distribution. The estimates from ZI models quantify the effects of covariates on the means of latent random variables, which are often not the quantities of primary interest. Recently, marginal zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP; Long et al. [A marginalized zero-inflated Poisson regression model with overall exposure effects. Stat. Med. 33 (2014), pp. 5151–5165]) and negative binomial (MZINB; Preisser et al., 2016) models have been introduced that model the mean response directly. These models yield covariate effects that have simple interpretations that are, for many applications, more appealing than those available from ZI regression. This paper outlines a general framework for marginal zero-inflated models where the latent distribution is a member of the exponential dispersion family, focusing on common distributions for count data. In particular, our discussion includes the marginal zero-inflated binomial (MZIB) model, which has not been discussed previously. The details of maximum likelihood estimation via the EM algorithm are presented and the properties of the estimators as well as Wald and likelihood ratio-based inference are examined via simulation. Two examples presented illustrate the advantages of MZIP, MZINB, and MZIB models for practical data analysis.     

Conditional Akaike Information Criteria for a Class of Poisson Mixture Models with Random Effects

Focusing on the model selection problems in the family of Poisson mixture models (including the Poisson mixture regression model with random effects and zero‐inflated Poisson regression model with random effects), the current paper derives two conditional Akaike information criteria. The criteria are the unbiased estimators of the conditional Akaike information based on the conditional log‐likelihood and the conditional Akaike information based on the joint log‐likelihood, respectively. The derivation is free from the specific parametric assumptions about the conditional mean of the true data‐generating model and applies to different types of estimation methods. Additionally, the derivation is not based on the asymptotic argument. Simulations show that the proposed criteria have promising estimation accuracy. In addition, it is found that the criterion based on the conditional log‐likelihood demonstrates good model selection performance under different scenarios. Two sets of real data are used to illustrate the proposed method.     

多边汇率风险下各国通货膨胀复杂性变化研究

国际汇率风险是一国经济市场稳定的重要决定因素,为此文章采用数值方法,对各种多边汇率情景下各国通货膨胀水平的变化情况进行模拟仿真.研究发现,汇率变化对各国通货膨胀的影响,受到各国问制造业产品替代弹性的干扰,存在复杂性特征:在各国制造业产品替代弹性处于低水平时,有金融国参与的贬值情景,有利于压低各国的通胀水平;当各国制造业产品替代弹性达到一定程度时,制造国(或资源国)的单独贬值,有利于压低本国的通胀水平,但却会拉高其他国家的通胀水平.因此,在国际汇率政策决策中,为控制国内通胀水平,一国应充分考虑多边汇率决策的综合博弈结果,而不是简单的一对一关系.     

我国通货膨胀路径的对称性和波动性分析

我国价格水平变化具有一定程度的对称性,但在通货膨胀和通货紧缩阶段具有不同的波动性。影响我国价格水平变化的重要原因来自消费需求,目前我国价格水平变化具有有效需求驱动特性。紧缩货币政策有效地抑制了通货膨胀,但稳健货币政策对缓解通货紧缩作用微弱,同时积极财政政策也没有明显地影响价格水平,因此缓解通货紧缩还需要更为积极的名义扩张。     

金融创新背景下我国货币政策中介目标的选择

金融创新改变了货币需求的稳定性和货币供给的可控性,直接影响了货币供应量这一政策中介目标的效果。从短期来看,由于我国目前金融创新层次较低,货币政策中介目标还可继续沿用货币供应量;从长远来看,金融创新的日益丰富势必影响该中介指标的可用性,因此必然要寻求其他更具适应性的中介指标,对货币政策予以调整。发展方向宜将中介目标和最终目标合而为一,转向通货膨胀定标。     

我国个人所得税指数化的必要性和可行性思考

通货膨胀使个人实际收入向政府转移,变相地加重了纳税人的负担,而实行税收指数化直接有助于减轻纳税人的税负,有助于实现税收公平与税收效率。我国当前实行个税指数化非常必要。个人所得税指数化的立法中应注意个人所得税的功能定位,指数化应以自动调整措施为主,并结合考量指数化标准等问题。