A method for work modeling at complex systems: towards applying information systems in family health care units

Work in organizations requires a minimum level of consensus on the understanding of the practices performed. To adopt technological devices to support the activities in environments where work is complex, characterized by the interdependence among a large number of variables, understanding about how work is done not only takes an even greater importance, but also becomes a more difficult task. Therefore, this study aims to present a method for modeling of work in complex systems, which allows improving the knowledge about the way activities are performed where these activities do not simply happen by performing procedures. Uniting techniques of Cognitive Task Analysis with the concept of Work Process, this work seeks to provide a method capable of providing a detailed and accurate vision of how people perform their tasks, in order to apply information systems for supporting work in organizations.     

Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

THEORIES OF THE STATE: THE CASE OF LAND REFORM IN ITALY, 1944–1961

This article examines the case of land reform in Italy from 1944 to 1961 in relation to the role of the State in capitalism. Through an analysis of recent debate on the capitalist State, it offers an investigation of the generation and outcomes of the process of land reform. It is important to note that the social pressure exerted by landless peasants and farm workers for the redistribution of land and the dissolution of the dominant social bloc generated the conditions for a land reform that only partially satisfied the needs of the agricultural working class. Simultaneously, the mediation of the State enhanced the overall interests of the domestic bourgeoisie. In this context, land reform produced contradictory results that favored the processes of accumulation of capital and legitimation of social dissent.     

Global Agro-Food Corporations and the State: The Ferruzzi Case

The relationship between transnational corporations (TNCs) in the agro-food sector and the nation-state in the context of global post-Fordism is examined through a case study of recent events involving the Ferruzzi transnational corporation. TNCs have a complex and contradictory set of relations with the state that are affected by competition among TNCs, by TNCs' internal disagreements, and by the fragmented nature of the state. The state assists TNCs through formal and informal channels. In this specific case, the informality of the system is underscored by the openly illegal arrangement that was operated for years by Ferruzzi officials and members of the officialdom of the state. However, the state also has the capacity to counter the actions of TNCs and to enforce the interests of subordinate groups.     

An R package for the simulation of correlated discrete variables

A package for the stochastic simulation of discrete variables with assigned marginal distributions and correlation matrix is presented and discussed. The simulating mechanism relies upon the Gaussian copula, linking the discrete distributions together, and an iterative scheme recovering the correlation matrix for the copula that ensures the desired correlations among the discrete variables. Examples of its use are provided as well as three possible applications (related to probability, sampling, and inference), which illustrate the utility of the package as an efficient and easy-to-use tool both in statistical research and for didactic purposes.     

Afghan Migratory Strategies and the Three Solutions to the Refugee Problem

The present article proposes three main theses: the normalityof movements and the prior existence of transnational networksin and around Afghanistan; the resilience and inventivenessof the Afghan population, especially illustrated by the remittancesystem; the relevance of migratory movements and of transnationalnetworks for the reconstruction of the country and the stabilityof the region. In contrast to the migratory strategies developedby the refugees, the three solutions to the problem of the refugeespromoted by the UNHCR (voluntary repatriation in the countryof origin; integration in the host country; resettlement ina third country) are based on the idea that solutions are foundwhen movements stop. But mobility may be seen as a key livelihoodstrategy. A more comprehensive solution is needed, which takesinto account the full range of strategies and responses developedby the Afghan population, including the back-and-forth movementsbetween Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and beyond.     

Robustness of Optimal Investment Decisions in Mixed Insurance/Investment Cyber Risk Management

An integrated risk management strategy, combining insurance and security investments, where the latter contribute to reduce the insurance premium, is investigated to assess whether it can lead to reduced overall security expenses. The optimal investment for this mixed strategy is derived under three insurance policies, covering, respectively, all the losses (total coverage), just those below the limit of maximum liability (partial coverage), and those above a threshold but below the maximum liability (partial coverage with deductibles). Under certain conditions (e.g., low potential loss, or either very low or very high vulnerability), the mixed strategy reverts however to insurance alone, because investments do not provide an additional benefit. When the mixed strategy is the best choice, the dominant component in the overall security expenses is the insurance premium in most cases. Optimal investment decisions require an accurate estimate of the vulnerability, whereas larger estimation errors may be tolerated for the investment-effectiveness coefficient.     

Ridge regression versus ols by pitman's closeness under quadratic and fisher's loss

The existence of values of the ridge parameter such that ridge regression is preferable to OLS by the Pitman nearness criterion under both the quadratic and the Fisher's loss is shown. Preference regions of the two estimators under the above loss functions are found. An upper bound for the value of the Pitman's measure of closeness, independent of a deterministic or stochastic choice of the ridge parameter, is given.     

Marriage as a commitment device

Non-cooperative couples are inefficient. Cooperation raises the utility of both parents, and of each child, but does not guarantee efficiency. In the presence of credit rationing, a cooperative equilibrium may not exist outside marriage, because the main earner cannot credibly promise to compensate the main childcarer at some future date, and may not be able or willing to do so at front. By allowing the main childcarer to credibly threaten divorce if the main earner does not deliver the promised compensation when the time comes, marriage makes that promise credible, and thus increases the probability that a cooperative equilibrium will exist. In a separate-property jurisdiction, a reduction in the cost or difficulty of obtaining a divorce increases married women??s participation in the labour market. In a community-property one, it has no such effect.