Campylobacter QMRA: A Bayesian Estimation of Prevalence and Concentration in Retail Foods Under Clustering and Heavy Censoring

A Bayesian statistical temporal‐prevalence‐concentration model (TPCM) was built to assess the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic campylobacter species in batches of fresh chicken and turkey meat at retail. The data set was collected from Finnish grocery stores in all the seasons of the year. Observations at low concentration levels are often censored due to the limit of determination of the microbiological methods. This model utilized the potential of Bayesian methods to borrow strength from related samples in order to perform under heavy censoring. In this extreme case the majority of the observed batch‐specific concentrations was below the limit of determination. The hierarchical structure was included in the model in order to take into account the within‐batch and between‐batch variability, which may have a significant impact on the sample outcome depending on the sampling plan. Temporal changes in the prevalence of campylobacter were modeled using a Markovian time series. The proposed model is adaptable for other pathogens if the same type of data set is available. The computation of the model was performed using OpenBUGS software.     

Kontexteffekte in Familien – Angleichung von Paaren und intergenerationale Transmission am Beispiel Religiosität

The present contribution shows conceptual and methodological approaches for the study of social context effects within families. Family members mutually constitute the social context in which family behavior and personality development take place. Social influence in families becomes evident empirically in family members’ significant similarity concerning a wide variety of characteristics. The present study focuses on intrafamily convergence with regard to religiousness. In an empirical illustration, both (a) horizontal intracouple alignment and (b) vertical intergenerational transmission processes are examined. Besides the finding that experiences during religious socialization in the parental home have a stronger impact than partner influences in adulthood, our analyses show that social context effects are more pronounced the stronger the cohesion of the respective interaction dyad is (e.g., according to measures of relationship quality).     

<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">MAD-STEC</Emphasis>: a method for multiple automatic detection of space-time emerging clusters

Crime or disease surveillance commonly rely in space-time clustering methods to identify emerging patterns. The goal is to detect spatial-temporal clusters as soon as possible after its occurrence and to control the rate of false alarms. With this in mind, a spatio-temporal multiple cluster detection method was developed as an extension of a previous proposal based on a spatial version of the Shiryaev–Roberts statistic. Besides the capability of multiple cluster detection, the method have less input parameter than the previous proposal making its use more intuitive to practitioners. To evaluate the new methodology a simulation study is performed in several scenarios and enlighten many advantages of the proposed method. Finally, we present a case study to a crime data-set in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.     

A comparison of L-, LQ-, TL-moment and maximum likelihood high quantile estimates of the GPD and GEV distribution

In this article, L-moments, LQ-moments and TL-moments of the generalized Pareto and generalized extreme-value distributions are derived up to the fourth order. The first three L-, LQ- and TL-moments are used to obtain estimators of their parameters. Performing a simulation study, high-quantile estimates based on L-, LQ-, and TL-moments are compared to the maximum likelihood estimate with respect to their sample mean squared error. This consists of identifying an optimal combination of parameters α and p both considered in the range [0, 0.5] for estimating quantiles by LQ-moments. The results show L-moment and maximum likelihood methods outperform other methods.     

Ergonomics in projects of oil platforms in a change context

The context of oil platform design is changing in order to increase competitiveness and be prepared for difficult operations, mainly in fields more distant from the coast, like pre-salt. The currently preceding context is marked by projects guidelines designed to reduce projects and operation costs, including an important reducing in the number of people on board. The main objective of this research is to verify and discuss if the experience of use in platforms designed in a previous context, in which the people on board is practically twice, can contribute and/or can be transferred to new projects. From the ergonomic intervention in the design of two oil platform, with the work of team on board investigated on previous projects as reference, it was possible analyze if the previous use is still applicable to new projects. As a result, about 90% of the recommendations based on use are applicable to the current context. The restrictions on the transfer or operational experience are mainly related to the time of entry of ergonomics in the design process, the subsequent transformations costs and the advance of the execution phase started with the detailed design.     

Efficiency Analysis of the European Food Banks: Some Managerial Results

Hundreds of thousands of people in Europe are daily receiving food, thanks to local food banks, run basically by volunteers who collect donations and distribute them to organizations. In this paper, data from a sample of food banks working in 13 European countries are analysed using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), trying to learn about their profiles and find some clues about the efficiency of their operations, comparing them according to variables such as the number of volunteers and permanent staff, the tonnage of food delivered and the number of people served. Significant inefficiencies were found in the sector as a result of high performance of some food banks, thus setting a high level standard of operational efficiency. Some additional results regarding food bank sizes and performance are presented.     

Individual Pension Plans in Spain: How Expected Change in Future Income and Liquidity Constraints Shape the Behavior of Households

Understanding the motives that underlie Spaniards’ retirement saving decisions is important because many, if not most, future retirees will need to rely on personal savings to maintain a decent standard of living. The governor of the Bank of Spain has stated recently that the current public pension system will not guarantee an adequate pension to the citizens, advising to save now for retirement. In this debate on public pensions, and the complementary role that private pensions might play in Spain, this article has shed light on the decision of Spanish households to engage in individual pension plans and it has identified which factors determine the total amount saved in such retirement plans. Using micro data from the Bank of Spain (Survey of Household Finances 2011), the analysis has revealed that the expectations of lower future income, along with preferences for the financial risk and education, exert an important influence on the likelihood of enrolling in a private pension plan. University education minimizes the myopic behavior of households in the sense of making them more forward-looking and cautious in the face of their future well-being. Additionally using Heckman’s methodology to correct for the problem of selection bias, our results have revealed that liquidity constraints affect negatively the total amount of money saved for retirement.     

Paired comparisons analysis: an axiomatic approach to ranking methods

In this paper we present an axiomatic analysis of several ranking methods for general tournaments. We find that the ranking method obtained by applying maximum likelihood to the (Zermelo-)Bradley-Terry model, the most common method in statistics and psychology, is one of the ranking methods that perform best with respect to the set of properties under consideration. A less known ranking method, generalised row sum, performs well too. We also study, among others, the fair bets ranking method, widely studied in social choice, and the least squares method.     

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

Pension reforms in EU11 countries: An evaluation of post‐socialist pension policies

This article evaluates the pension policy pathways of the 11 former state socialist nations that have joined the European Union since 2004. Focusing primarily on the post‐2004 period, the analysis discusses the most important measurable outcomes of these countries’ pension reforms, in terms of poverty alleviation, pension adequacy and fiscal sustainability. Going beyond the quantifiable concepts, we also investigate the quality of the 11 countries’ pension systems in terms of equity as well as efficiency, emphasizing the less conspicuous design errors present in these systems. Although these errors have received little attention to date, they may harm pension schemes along several dimensions, including their fiscal sustainability.