Fusion of Intelligence Information: A Bayesian Approach

The attack that occurred on September 11, 2001 was, in the end, the result of a failure to detect and prevent the terrorist operations that hit the United States. The U.S. government thus faces at this time the daunting tasks of first, drastically increasing its ability to obtain and interpret different types of signals of impending terrorist attacks with sufficient lead time and accuracy, and second, improving its ability to react effectively. One of the main challenges is the fusion of information, from different sources (U.S. or foreign), and of different types (electronic signals, human intelligence. etc.). Fusion thus involves two very distinct and separate issues: communications, i.e., ensuring that the different U.S. and foreign intelligence agencies communicate all relevant and accurate information in a timely fashion and, perhaps more difficult, merging the content of signals, some "sharp" and some "fuzzy," some dependent and some independent into useful information. The focus of this article is on the latter issue, and on the use of the results. In this article, I present a classic probabilistic Bayesian model sometimes used in engineering risk analysis, which can be helpful in the fusion of information because it allows computation of the posterior probability of an event given its prior probability (before the signal is observed) and the quality of the signal characterized by the probabilities of false positive and false negative. Experience suggests that the nature of these errors has been sometimes misunderstood; therefore, I discuss the validity of several possible definitions.     

Gedanken zur Gestaltung einer professionellen Beratungsausbildung

Considerations on the design of a professional education of counselorsSome of the recently published articles about supervision-professionalizing are reflecting only sociological or psychological conceptions in order to describe and analyze professionality. In this article the authors discuss some of the mostly neglected points of view out of pedagogic and microsociologic professionalization-research (professional self, researching attitude). The existing requests of competence for supervisors are examined in order to test their teaching ability. Furthermore the content designs and didactic strategies for future counselor’s education are considered.     

The Uniqueness of the Child–Father Attachment Relationship: Fathers' Sensitive and Challenging Play as a Pivotal Variable in a 16-year Longitudinal Study

This longitudinal study of forty‐four families explored fathers’ as compared to mothers’ specific contribution to their children's attachment representation at ages 6, 10, and 16 years. In toddlerhood, fathers’ and mothers’ play sensitivity was evaluated with a new assessment, the sensitive and challenging interactive play scale (SCIP). Fathers’ SCIP scores were predicted by fathers’ caregiving quality during the first year, were highly consistent across 4 years, and were closely linked to the fathers’ own internal working model of attachment. Qualities of attachment as assessed in the Strange Situation to both parents were antecedents for children's attachment security in the Separation Anxiety Test at age 6. Fathers’ play sensitivity and infant–mother quality of attachment predicted children's internal working model of attachment at age 10, but not vice versa. Dimensions of adolescents’ attachment representations were predicted by fathers’ play sensitivity only. The results confirmed our main assumption that fathers’ play sensitivity is a better predictor of the child's long‐term attachment representation than the early infant–father security of attachment. The ecological validity of measuring fathers’ sensitive and challenging interactive play behavior as compared to infant proximity seeking in times of distress is highlighted. Findings are discussed with respect to a wider view on attachment in that both parents shape their children's psychological security but each in his or her unique way.     

On the Limitations of Redundancies in the Improvement of System Reliability

Some program managers share a common belief that adding a redundant component to a system reduces the probability of failure by half. This is true only if the failures of the redundant components are independent events, which is rarely the case. For example, the redundant components may be subjected to the same external loads. There is, however, in general a decrease in the failure probability of the system. Nonetheless, the redundant element comes at a cost, even if it is less than that of developing the first one when both are based on the same design. Identical parts save the most in terms of design costs, but are subjected to common failure modes from possible design errors that limit the effectiveness of the redundancy. In the development of critical systems, managers thus need to decide if the costs of a parallel system are justified by the increase in the system's reliability. NASA, for example, has used redundant spacecraft to increase the chances of mission success, which worked well in the cases of the Viking and Voyager missions. These two successes, however, do not guarantee future ones. We present here a risk analysis framework accounting for dependencies to support the decision to launch at the same time a twin mission of identical spacecraft, given incremental costs and risk-reduction benefits of the second one. We illustrate this analytical approach with the case of the Mars Exploration Rovers launched by NASA in 2003, for which we had performed this assessment in 2001.     

Global risk management

Industries that deal with hazardous systems are faced with the task of managing a spectrum of risks within resource contraints. They have essentially two options that can be combined in a global risk-management strategy: insurance (loss sharing) and risk mitigation through technical and organizational measures. In this article, global risk-management strategies based on probabilistic risk analysis and its extension to include management factors are described. Some issues and solutions are illustrated through practical examples, drawn mostly from the recent research of the Industrial Engineering Risk Research Group at Stanford (the tiles of the U.S. Space Shuttle, offshore platforms, marine pipelines, and anesthesia in modern hospitals).     

Supervision — ein Instrument zur Qualitätsentwicklung in der stationären Jugendhilfe

Supervision — an instrument of quality development in residential youth care The author summarizes the discussion about quality development in residential youth care with reference to fees. It also aims to clarify how this discussion influences the day-to-day work off the staff in residential institutions. The article demonstrates that supervision remains an indispensable instrument of quality development even when other quality instruments are being used. Supervisory processes have to considerate that the institutions must develop and implement instruments to ensure and evaluate their work.     

Two-Stage Estimation in Copula Models Used in Family Studies

In this paper register based family studies provide the motivation for studying a two-stage estimation procedure in copula models for multivariate failure time data. The asymptotic properties of the estimators in both parametric and semi-parametric models are derived, generalising the approach by Shih and Louis (Biometrics vol. 51, pp. 1384–1399, 1995b) and Glidden (Lifetime Data Analysis vol. 6, pp. 141–156, 2000). Because register based family studies often involve very large cohorts a method for analysing a sampled cohort is also derived together with the asymptotic properties of the estimators. The proposed methods are studied in simulations and the estimators are found to be highly efficient. Finally, the methods are applied to a study of mortality in twins.     

Learning from the Piper Alpha Accident: A Postmortem Analysis of Technical and Organizational Factors

The accident that occurred on board the offshore platform Piper Alpha in July 1988 killed 167 people and cost billions of dollars in property damage. It was caused by a massive fire, which was not the result of an unpredictable "act of God" but of an accumulation of errors and questionable decisions. Most of them were rooted in the organization, its structure, procedures, and culture. This paper analyzes the accident scenario using the risk analysis framework, determines which human decision and actions influenced the occurrence of the basic events, and then identifies the organizational roots of these decisions and actions. These organizational factors are generalizable to other industries and engineering systems. They include flaws in the design guidelines and design practices (e.g., tight physical couplings or insufficient redundancies), misguided priorities in the management of the tradeoff between productivity and safety, mistakes in the management of the personnel on board, and errors of judgment in the process by which financial pressures are applied on the production sector (i.e., the oil companies' definition of profit centers) resulting in deficiencies in inspection and maintenance operations. This analytical approach allows identification of risk management measures that go beyond the purely technical (e.g., add redundancies to a safety system) and also include improvements of management practices.     

‘Female Heroes’: Celebrity Executives as Postfeminist Role Models

This paper explores the significance of contemporary celebrity businesswomen as role models for women aspiring to leadership in business. We explore the kind of gendered ideals they model and promote to women through their autobiographical narratives, and analyse how these ideals map against a contemporary postfeminist sensibility to further understand the potential of these role models to redress the under‐representation of women in management and leadership. Our findings show that celebrity businesswomen present a role model that we call the ‘female hero’, a figure characterized by 3Cs: confidence to jump over gendered barriers; control in managing these barriers; and courage to push through them. We argue that the ‘female hero’ role model is deeply embedded in the contemporary postfeminist sensibility; it offers exclusively individualized solutions to inequality by calling on women to change themselves to succeed, and therefore has limited capacity to challenge the current gendered status quo in management and leadership. The paper contributes to current literature on role models by generating a more differentiated and socially situated understanding of distant female role models in business and extending our understanding of their potential to generate sustainable and long‐term change in advancing gendered change in management and leadership.