Does media coverage influence public attitudes towards welfare recipients? The impact of the 2011 English riots

Following the shooting of Mark Duggan by police on 4 August 2011, there were riots in many large cities in the UK. As the rioting was widely perceived to be perpetrated by the urban poor, links were quickly made with Britain's welfare policies. In this paper, we examine whether the riots, and the subsequent media coverage, influenced attitudes toward welfare recipients. Using the British Social Attitudes survey, we use multivariate difference‐in‐differences regression models to compare attitudes toward welfare recipients among those interviewed before (pre‐intervention: i.e. prior to 6 August) and after (post‐intervention: 10 August–10 September) the riots occurred (N = 3,311). We use variation in exposure to the media coverage to test theories of media persuasion in the context of attitudes toward welfare recipients. Before the riots, there were no significant differences between newspaper readers and non‐readers in their attitudes towards welfare recipients. However, after the riots, attitudes diverged. Newspaper readers became more likely than non‐readers to believe that those on welfare did not really deserve help, that the unemployed could find a job if they wanted to and that those on the dole were being dishonest in claiming benefits. Although the divergence was clearest between right‐leaning newspaper and non‐newspaper readers, we do not a find statistically significant difference between right‐ and left‐leaning newspapers. These results suggest that media coverage of the riots influenced attitudes towards welfare recipients; specifically, newspaper coverage of the riots increased the likelihood that readers of the print media expressed negative attitudes towards welfare recipients when compared with the rest of the population.     

All Data are Wrong,but Some are Useful? Advocating the Need for Data Auditing

In a recent article from the Annals of Applied Statistics, Cox discussed the main phases of applied statistical research ranging from clarifying study objectives to final data analysis and interpreting results. As an incidental remark to these main phases, we advocate that beyond cleaning and preprocessing the data, it is a good practice to audit the data to determine if they can be trusted at all. A case study based on Ghanaian Official Fishery Statistics is used to illustrate this need, with Benford's law being the tool used to carrying out the data audit. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Sport and disability: Pistorius does not fit with the categories

Oscar Pistorius presents a major issue to sports organisations, as exposed in the media. First and foremost, media wrongly perceive him as the first disabled athlete to participate in the Olympic Games. Second, they openly question the legitimacy of his participation mainly based on the inequity introduced by his prosthetic legs. Content analysis, in English and French, of written press, International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) and Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) texts, from 2004 to 2012, confirms that Pistorius presents a new puzzle to sports organizations. This is partly because they are not able to determine whether his performances are a result of his body strength or if they are biased by his artificial limbs. Furthermore, when he is competing against able-bodied athletes, sports organizsations put him in a ‘monstrous’ position. Similarly, while categorising him as an ‘athlete’ they do not grant him the characteristic feature of this category: certified comparability of performances to ultimately establish ranks.     

Improved estimation methods for unrelated question randomized response techniques

The randomized response technique (RRT) is an important tool, commonly used to avoid biased answers in survey on sensitive issues by preserving the respondents’ privacy. In this paper, we introduce a data collection method for survey on sensitive issues combining both the unrelated-question RRT and the direct question design. The direct questioning method is utilized to obtain responses to a non sensitive question that is related to the innocuous question from the unrelated-question RRT. These responses serve as additional information that can be used to improve the estimation of the prevalence of the sensitive behavior. Furthermore, we propose two new methods for the estimation of the proportion of respondents possessing the sensitive attribute under a missing data setup. More specifically, we develop the weighted estimator and the weighted conditional likelihood estimator. The performances of our estimators are studied numerically and compared with that of an existing one. Both proposed estimators are more efficient than the Greenberg's estimator. We illustrate our methods using real data from a survey study on illegal use of cable TV service in Taiwan.     

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location‐Specific Premiums in the Netherlands

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well‐designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood‐loss‐sharing program involving private insurance based on location‐specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS‐based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location‐specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile‐related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures.     

Longitudinal Factor Analysis of Public Expenditure Composition and Human Development in Brazil After the 1988 Constitution

The way public policies are managed in Brazil has changed since the 1988 Federal Constitution. This study aimed to identify how changes in the structure of public expenditure composition at Brazilian federal states influenced local human development in these states. The states’ public expenditures were categorized according to their nature as spending indices whereas human development was measured through a human development index (HD). To verify the relationships between these variables, an accounting-social theoretical model was created and estimated through latent growth modeling (LGM). The LGM measurement period comprised five administration cycles of the Brazilian states (1988–2011). Variables were measured on data of the second year of state government term; their mean initial values and growth rates were recorded. Results show that, influenced by policies of centralized regulation promoted by the federal government, only the social spending growth rates had statistically significant effect on the human development growth rate, although not considered of great magnitude. Among mean initial values, the most significant was that of minimum spending (SIm), which denotes the direct impact of the Fiscal Accountability Law [Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, in Portuguese] on human development improvements. The mean initial value of economic spending also showed a positive and significant effect on HD growth rate.     

Are cutout handles used when available in real occupational settings? Description of grips and upper extremities movements during industrial box handling

In order to achieve better postures and decrease musculoskeletal risks adequate design of hand/box couplings for manual materials handling (MMH) are still needed. No studies evaluating upper limb movement thorough direct measurements during box handling in workplace were identified in the literature. In this study we describe the types of grip and movements adopted by ten workers when handling redesigned boxes with cutout handles between different heights on industrial pallets. The new handles were used by 90% of the workers through different types of grip. Electrogoniometric measurements showed relatively safe forearm and wrist movements, although elbow inadequate range of movement was recorded. Despite the good acceptance of the cutout by workers, the new design requires extra internal space in the boxes reducing applications for this alternative of box.     

Heavy physical work under time pressure: the garbage collection service--a case study

The increased generation of garbage has become a problem in large cities, with greater demand for collection services. The collector is subjected to high workload. This study describes the work in garbage collection service, highlighting the requirements of time, resulting in physical and psychosocial demands to collectors. Ergonomic Work Analysis (EWA) - a method focused on the study of work in real situations was used. Initially, technical visits, global observations and unstructured interviews with different subjects of a garbage collection company were conducted. The following step of the systematic observations was accompanied by interviews conducted during the execution of tasks, inquiring about the actions taken, and also interviews about the actions, but conducted after the development of the tasks, photographic records and audiovisual recordings, of workers from two garbage collection teams. Contradictions between the prescribed work and activities (actual work) were identified, as well as the variability present in this process, and strategies adopted by these workers to regulate the workload. It was concluded that the insufficiency of means and the organizational structure of management ensue a situation where the collection process is maintained at the expense of hyper-requesting these workers, both physically and psychosocially.     

A Stochastic Model to Assess the Effect of Meat Inspection Practices on the Contamination of the Pig Carcasses

The objective of meat inspection is to promote animal and public health by preventing, detecting, and controlling hazards originating from animals. With the improvements of sanitary level in pig herds, the hazards profile has shifted and the inspection procedures no longer target major foodborne pathogens (i.e., not risk based). Additionally, carcass manipulations performed when searching for macroscopic lesions can lead to cross‐contamination. We therefore developed a stochastic model to quantitatively describe cross‐contamination when consecutive carcasses are submitted to classic inspection procedures. The microbial hazard used to illustrate the model was Salmonella, the data set was obtained from Brazilian slaughterhouses, and some simplifying assumptions were made. The model predicted that due to cross‐contamination during inspection, the prevalence of contaminated carcass surfaces increased from 1.2% to 95.7%, whereas the mean contamination on contaminated surfaces decreased from 1 logCFU/cm² to ?0.87 logCFU/cm², and the standard deviations decreased from 0.65 to 0.19. These results are explained by the fact that, due to carcass manipulations with hands, knives, and hooks, including the cutting of contaminated lymph nodes, Salmonella is transferred to previously uncontaminated carcasses, but in small quantities. These small quantities can easily go undetected during sampling. Sensitivity analyses gave insight into the model performance and showed that the touching and cutting of lymph nodes during inspection can be an important source of carcass contamination. The model can serve as a tool to support discussions on the modernization of pig carcass inspection.