Statistical consulting

The paper and the special issue focus on the activity of statistical consulting and its varieties. This includes academic consulting, consulting to and in industry as well as statistics in public media.     

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for the Evaluation of a Website

Consider a website and the surfers visiting its pages. A typical issue of interest, for example while monitoring an advertising campaign, concerns whether a specific page has been designed successfully, i.e. is able to attract surfers or address them to other pages within the site. We assume that the surfing behaviour is fully described by the transition probabilities from one page to another, so that a clickstream (sequence of consecutively visited pages) can be viewed as a finite-state-space Markov chain. We then implement a variety of hierarchical prior distributions on the multivariate logits of the transition probabilities and define, for each page, a content effect and a link effect. The former measures the attractiveness of the page due to its contents, while the latter signals its ability to suggest further interesting links within the site. Moreover, we define an additional effect, representing overall page success, which incorporates both effects previously described. Using WinBUGS, we provide estimates and credible intervals for each of the above effects and rank pages accordingly.     

Intertemporal choice under timing risk: An experimental approach

This paper investigates how individuals evaluate delayed outcomes with risky realization times. Under the discounted expected utility (DEU) model, such evaluations depend only on intertemporal preferences. We obtain several testable hypotheses using the DEU model as a benchmark and test these hypotheses in three experiments. In general, our results show that the DEU model is a poor predictor of intertemporal choice behavior under timing risk. We found that individuals are averse to timing risk and that they evaluate timing lotteries in a rank-dependent fashion. The main driver of timing risk aversion is nothing but probabilistic risk aversion that stems from the nonlinear treatment of probabilities.     

Glass ceilings or sticky floors? A model of high-income law graduates

Minorities and females are underrepresented in the top-income quintile of law school graduates. Employing a binary logistic regression model, I examine whether this is due to a“glass ceiling” (an invisible barrier erected by third parties) or a“sticky floor” (self-imposed limitations regarding employment). My major finding is that being female, a minority, or disabled did not significantly reduce one's probability of making the top-income quintile once hours of work, experience, and other factors are taken into account. My findings directly contradict the large body of glass-ceiling literature and support the sticky-floor model. I thank the Law School Admission Council for funding this research. Helpful comments and suggestions were received from Robert Nelson of Northwestern University and the American Bar Foundation, Steven Conroy of the University of West Florida, and R. Kim Craft and Douglas Bonzo of Southern Utah University. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions or persons listed above.     

CORPORATE TAX INCIDENCE AND INEFFICIENCY WHEN CORPORATE AND NONCORPORATE GOODS ARE CLOSE SUBSTITUTES

An important deficiency in Harberger's [1962] model of corporate income taxation is its inability to consider both corporate and noncorporate production of the same good. Within-industry substitution has potentially major implications for both the excess burden and incidence of the corporate tax.
We analyze this within-industry substitution using a model in which each industry/sector contains corporate and noncorporate firms (with identical production functions) which produce goods that are close substitutes. The scope for considerable within-industry substitution of noncorporate for corporate capital leads to a very much larger excess burden than that in the Harberger model.     

Adoptive parents to children with severe developmental disabilities: A profile

A sample of 16 women and men who accompanied their adopted children with severe developmental disabilities to a medical appointment at Henry Ford Hospital's Multidisciplinary Care Clinic during the one-year period beginning July 1, 1988 are described in the context of their parental role vis-a-vis these children. Results of the study are presented through use of a six-part organizational scheme: demographic and social traits of the parents and their adopted children, the adopted children in family context, life satisfactions of the parents, adoption motives, adoption satisfactions, and humanization of the children.     

log-logistic survival estimation based on failure-censored data

Approximations of the Bayesian estimators of the survival function based on the censored data of the log-logistic distribution are obtained under squared-error and log-odds squared-error loss functions. A numerical example is presented. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, the behavior of the approximations found by Tierney & Kadane and Lindley are compared with a method suggested by Weiss & Howlader.