Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model

A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens's data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters of the chicken processing line model.     

Effects of human-related disturbance on breeding success of urban and non-urban blue tits (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyanistes caeruleus</Emphasis>)

There is a need to study the effects of urbanization on wildlife in order to understand the ecological implications of increasing urbanization and find out how to reduce its threats to biodiversity. The blue tit evolved as a forest species and prefers deciduous and mixed forests, whereas its nesting in urban habitats is a more recent phenomenon. Our long-term study of blue tit populations has been conducted in two habitats: an urban parkland (frequently visited by people) and a deciduous forest outside of the city. Using linear mixed modeling, we revealed that a relationship of blue tit breeding success (and the number of fledglings) with thermal conditions in May differed between the urban parkland and the forest. While the relationship was positive in the forest, it was negative in the parkland. In addition, breeding success in the parkland increased with increasing number of rainy days in May. We argue that the main possible reason for such patterns is human activity in the parkland, which interferes with tit parental care, especially the regular feeding of nestlings, whereas it is evidently associated with weather conditions. Human disturbance in the forest is likely to be negligible.     

The Index of Household Financial Condition,Combining Subjective and Objective Indicators: An Appraisal of Italian Households

With data from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth, we present an Index of Household Financial Condition and quantify with it the position of households between 2004 and 2010. The Index of Household Financial Condition is composed of subjective and objective indicators, which enable to capture differently the existing uncertainty concerning the future development of a household’s financial situation. We show with a measurement model based on multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) that the proposed Index is two-dimensional and comprises financial position and financial prudence. Through application of the MGCFA, we show that the interrelations between the indicators had not changed at four measurement occasions (2004–2010), and thus the proposed set comprises a coherent and time-invariant framework for measuring two dimensions of the latent concept: financial condition. Established measurement invariance in the MGCFA framework allows an assessment of trend in financial position and financial prudence of Italian households. We show that the financial position of Italian households improved in the period 2004–2006 and later declined. Improvement of the financial prudence was observed, however, till 2008. Finally, we incorporate a set of socioeconomic features of Italian households into a structural equation model. With the provided set of indicators, we find positive relation between age and both financial position and prudence, but also we show the positive impact of white-collar jobs on scores in each of the dimensions of the financial condition.     

Differences in Gender Norms Between Countries: Are They Valid? The Issue of Measurement Invariance

The values and attitudes towards gender roles are often investigated and compared from a cross-country perspective without the proper statistical treatment of the measurement invariance (MI) assessment. This implies that the conclusions based on composite scales of gender norms, gender role attitudes or gender egalitarianism, to name only a few, may be questionable. In this study, we address this lack by investigating the cross-country MI properties of the Gender Equality Scale (GES) based on World Value Survey data. We use multi-group confirmatory factor analysis with and without alignment to determine the configural, weak, strong and strict MI. The results show that the concept of gender equality is not comparable across all countries involved in the survey. In particular, it seems to differ between Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe. We claim that only selected Central and Eastern European countries exhibit a configural MI but fail to show full weak MI and definitely fail to show full strong and full strict MI. However, under the aligned measurement framework, we succeeded in showing that for these countries, comparisons of the country rankings with respect to the GES are valid provided that a correction for non-invariance of certain factor loadings and/or intercepts is applied. Our study shows that the most egalitarian gender role attitudes measured by the GES are observed in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania and Croatia. They are significantly higher than the gender equality attitudes recorded in the lowest scoring countries Poland, Slovakia, Albania and Romania.     

What Does a Swiss Franc Mortgage Cost? The Tale of Polish Trust for Foreign Currency Denominated Mortgages: Implications for Well-Being and Health

It is commonly agreed that excessive household financial debts are detrimental to psychological and physical health. Research also demonstrates that housing instability, mortgage indebtedness and mortgage foreclosure negatively influence subjective well-being. In Poland at the beginning of 2015, homeowners with Swiss franc denominated mortgages suffered from an abrupt swing in the Swiss franc/Polish zloty (CHF/PLN) exchange rate, which resulted in considerable increase in the local currency value of their mortgages. These adverse financial circumstances were hypothesised to affect not only household finance but also negatively affect the psychological well-being and physical health of peoples. The 2013 and 2015 waves of the Polish representative household panel ‘Social Diagnosis’ were used to examine impact of the abrupt change in the CHF/PLN exchange rate in Jan. 2015 on well-being and health. Causal inference was investigated using a difference-in-differences matching estimator. Results showed that although impact of Swiss franc appreciation on the mortgage related financial burden was considerable, it did not affect well-being or health outcomes. Any manifestation of adverse effects was absent in the short term, which does not however preclude their long term existence.     

Embracing complexity: Learning from minority, 50-50, and majority joint venture experience

Learning from joint venture (JV) experience is commonly viewed as a way to improve JV performance. However, many JVs are complex and difficult to learn from. How can firms embrace this complexity to realize the learning potential of their JV experience? To answer this question, we consider how minority, 50-50, and majority JVs differ in terms of complexity stemming from the interdependencies between the JV partners and between the JV and its parent organizations. We theorize that the relatively limited complexity of minority JV experience facilitates learning from more complex experience with majority and 50-50 JVs. However, the same facilitating effect is not expected between two forms of complex experience. We test these predictions on a comprehensive set of equity JVs formed by Dutch listed companies between 1966 and 2005, using JV survival and abnormal stock market returns as complementary JV performance measures.     

Care Proceedings: Exploring the Relationship Between Case Duration and Achieving Permanency for the Child

The 1989 Children Act in England and Wales and the derivative1995 Children (NI) Order in Northern Ireland provide the legislativeframework within which issues pertaining to the care and supervisionof children that come before the Courts are examined. Both piecesof legislation were intended to address a number of problemswith the way that such issues were dealt with by the Court,particularly the tendency for proceedings to become protractedand for children to ‘drift’ in care as a consequence.The imposition of the ‘No Delay’ principle in bothjurisdictions was designed specifically to address these concerns.However, since the introduction of both the 1989 Children Act(implemented in October 1991) and the 1995 Children (NI) Order(implemented in November 1996), there has been a steady increasein the average duration of proceedings and concerns remain aboutthe impact that this may be having upon the children involved.This paper presents the findings of a research study (McSherry et al., 2004)that explored the complex relationship between the durationof care proceedings and costs to children in terms of the likelihoodof achieving permanency.     

A positive outlook? The housing needs and aspirations of working age people with visual impairments

This paper arises from research, funded by the Housing Corporation and the Thomas Pocklington Trust, which investigated the housing needs and priorities of visually impaired people of working age, a population that has received little public policy attention. We report on the housing circumstances and aspirations of 121 people living in London. In-depth study discovered that people of working age who have vision impairment can be disadvantaged by inflexible procedures that adversely affect their transition to independence, as well as their self-determination with respect to family issues. The study also learned that this population has particular needs in relation to domestic and outside space, home location and safety and security measures. Furthermore, the interviewees indicated that specialist supported housing may develop a stronger role if it diversifies and provides non-institutional stepping stones towards greater autonomy.     

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing.