Multiscale change point detection for dependent data

In this article we study the theoretical properties of the simultaneous multiscale change point estimator (SMUCE) in piecewise-constant signal models with dependent error processes. Empirical studies suggest that in this case the change point estimate is inconsistent, but it is not known if alternatives suggested in the literature for correlated data are consistent. We propose a modification of SMUCE scaling the basic statistic by the long run variance of the error process, which is estimated by a difference-type variance estimator calculated from local means from different blocks. For this modification we prove model consistency for physical-dependent error processes and illustrate the finite sample performance by means of a simulation study.     

Visual Narrative and Temporal Relevance: Segueing Instant Replay into Live Broadcast TV

Professional production of live TV combines real‐time and recorded video into a single broadcast stream. In “live” TV, non‐live “instant replay” footage can help viewers to make sense of what has just happened. This article shows how multi‐person TV production teams assemble timely and relevant instant replays that can be seamlessly combined with real‐time footage during live broadcasts. Detailed interaction analysis demonstrates how this work is dependent on coordinated practices, and how team members achieve this by orienting to narrative concerns across multiple temporalities to produce topically useful instant replays, displaying clip relevance, and help segueing transitions between the ongoing action and replay. We conclude by examining the interrelationships between the sequential flow of visual content, the role of talk in mediating time‐shifted visual alignments, and how members make their work visible and accountable to one another and to their intended audience.     

International Migration: Trends,Determinants, and Policy Effects

This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post‐WWII global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post‐WWII migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, “substitution effects” can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting “now or never” migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.     

Parameter Estimation for the Tail Distribution of a Random Sequence

The tail Y_t = X_t – u of a random sequence {X_t ∈ , t ∈ } with identically distributed X_t is approximated by the generalized Pareto distribution according to the extreme value theory, wherein Y_t occurs in clusters because of the dependence in the random sequence. Nevertheless, the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution are estimated by the same methods as in the case of independent and identically distributed Y_t, provided that there is independence between the clusters of Y_t. The estimation variances and confidence intervals can be estimated by the jackknife method. The approaches are theoretically discussed and verified by extensive numerical researches.     

The dynamics of online news discussions: effects of news articles and reader comments on users’ involvement,willingness to participate,and the civility of their contributions*

This study investigates when and why news website visitors write civil or uncivil comments in response to news articles or related user comments. In an experiment, we manipulated the news value of news articles and the presence of ‘deliberative’ or ‘detrimental’ elements of comments to compare their impact on participants’ involvement, willingness to comment, and the comments they posted. News factors and comment characteristics increased participants’ willingness to comment via cognitive and affective involvement. Cognitive involvement made it less likely and affective involvement more likely that participants wrote uncivil comments. Additionally, involvement with previous comments increased participants’ willingness to comment on articles and vice versa. Results imply that news articles and comments dynamically shape the discussion value of online news.     

Information as metaphorical and allegorical construction: some methodological preludes

Metaphors, allegories and other kinds of indirect speech-acts and catachretical phrases are usually considered to be the very opposite of scientific theories. An alternative can be identified in the constructivists’ approach, dealing with catachretical expressions as a starting point for the explication of scientific language games. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate such an alternative point of view, dealing with metaphorical applications of the term “information” within biological narratives.     

California’s Title IV-E Partnership: A Statewide University–Agency Collaboration—Characteristics and Implications for Replication

University–agency partnerships funded by Title IV-E encourage students to enter the child welfare field by providing student stipends, thus supporting child welfare agency workforce development. This article examines the literature and historical roots of Title IV-E and other partnerships, identifies common structures and outcomes, and discusses the extent to which a structured development and change process supports the California partnership’s core mission to integrate the education and practice communities in child welfare. The partnership is teleological in nature, using a social exchange approach to advance mutuality and a full spectrum of benefits for universities and agencies. Models and best practice elements are presented as examples of how university–agency partnerships may enhance child welfare service delivery.