生活在第一线

在政治家与记者之间,站着一个至关重要的角色——发言人。本文是美国国务院前发言人詹姆斯·鲁宾的经验之谈。     

罗莎·卢森堡与发展中国家金融危机的社会化

顾海良从马克思主义的问题和传统这两个层面,分析了罗莎·卢森堡思想研究的当代意义在问题层面上,通过分析两个世纪之交历史发展的相似处和不同点,指出研究罗莎·卢森堡所处时代的特点及其思想,对我们理解马克思主义历史命运问题的启示;在传统层面上,提出恩格斯逝世以后马克思主义的理论分野产生三个支流,其中以德国社会民主党罗莎·卢森堡理论为渊源的西方马克思主义,其代表人物卢卡奇、柯尔施、葛兰西均受罗莎·卢森堡的影响。简·托伯罗维斯基研究了罗莎·卢森堡对金融危机的治疗办法,强调其与发展中国家具有更大的相关性。彼特·胡第斯指出,罗莎·卢森堡的后资本主义社会观念,讨论了当今时代的重要问题——获取政权后对革命民主的需要。夏莹分析了拉克劳与墨菲对“卢森堡困境”的批判,指出这一困境并不存在,其所反映出的正是卢森堡试图通过对特殊性(偶然性)的强调,来建构一种马克思哲学意义上的普遍性,因而她与拉克劳的领导权理论恰恰具有本质上的家族相似性。     

Operational challenges in adaptive design implementation

Implementation of adaptive clinical trial designs raises challenges with regard to the processes by which accruing trial data is analyzed, reviewed, and acted upon. In line with current monitoring conventions, it should be viewed that inappropriate knowledge of interim results can raise concerns regarding maintaining trial integrity and interpretability of results. Here we discuss issues related to these processes in adaptive trials, and point out distinctions versus other more familiar monitoring situations. One topic involves the composition of the group of individuals who will have access to interim results in order to recommend adaptations. We discuss operational models for data review by this group; one question addressed is whether in adaptive trials a role in this process for a representative of the study sponsor could at times be warranted, and might be justified if adequate protections are in place. Another issue involves whether adaptations made based upon interim data can convey to observers an amount of information about the results, which could rise to a level of concern. We consider whether different types of adaptations might be more or less problematic with regard to this issue, and recommend steps that might be considered to mitigate this concern.     

中国蒙古文学史料学的起始与发展

蒙古文学研究的基础和前提是蒙古文学史料。随着国内外蒙古文学研究的不断拓展和深入,蒙古文学史料搜集整理已逐步发展成为蒙古文学史料学。蒙古文学史料学包括蒙古文学的田野调查、史料整理、考订、选录、笺释、校注、校勘、辑评等诸多研究内涵。中国蒙古文学研究取得巨大成就,得益于蒙古文学史料学的长足发展。我们应当总结以往蒙古文学史料学研究的经验,使蒙古文学史料学更加系统化、科学化和理论化。     

第二次世界大战中的苏联与中国

第二次世界大战中欧洲战场上的苏德战线和亚洲太平洋战场上的中日战线是最重要的和决定性的。为了确保两条战线的胜利,苏联和中国的外交活动起到了重要的作用。由于日本的扩张行动日益猖獗,苏联感到自身安全受到威胁。在日本的逼攻之下,苏联和中国的战略利益逐渐趋于一致。于是,苏联决定向中国提供有效援助和支持,但美、英等西方国家并不支持苏联的动议。面对日本的侵略,中国向西方寻求保护的外交努力严重受挫,迫使蒋介石政府积极寻求苏联的支持,最后两国缔结互不侵犯条约。条约奠定了苏中友好关系的国际法基础,苏联据此为中国抗日战争提供了必要援助和支持。1941年日本袭击珍珠港之后,第二次世界大战的亚洲战场增加了太平洋战线,战争扩展到了整个亚洲太平洋地区。从此以后,西方各国才开始援助中国,对华战略才发生转变。     

The demographics of inequality

This paper presents a survey of recent literature on the effects of demographic variables on economic inequality. First, a number of conceptual and methodological questions are raised and discussed. They pertain to what is meant by inequality, what the range of demographic variables is, and how variable and endogenous are the demographic variables most widely used.The paper then turns to a review of empirical works on the distributive incidence of the following demographic variables: baby boomers entering the job market, aging population, variable fertility and mortality rates, internal and external migrations, divorce and widowhood, and finally donations and bequests. It appears that a lot of caution is needed when assessing the incidence of any demographic variable changing the size of the population because in this case standard inequality measures yield conflicting signals.Presidental address delivered at the second meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, June 23, 1988, Mannheim, FRG. The author is extremely grateful to R. Easterlin, D. Kessler, T. Smeeding, l. Tunali, R. von Weizsäcker, two referees, and the participants in the 1988 Hagen meeting of the Verein für Social politik, Ausschuß Mr Bevölkerungsökonomie, for their comments.     

Population registers: some administrative and statistical pros and cons

The advantages and disadvantages of introducing a central population register are discussed in the context of the United Kingdom. The discussion covers a range of issues, including "justice, fairness, freedom, privacy, efficiency, the fight against crime and fraud, and relations between the government and the community." The author describes the use of population registers in other European countries, the statistical implications of better population registers, the various population records that do exist in the United Kingdom, and the proposal to introduce identity cards in Australia. A summary of a discussion that took place following presentation of the paper at the Royal Statistical Society is included (pp. 28-41).     

Evolution of family policy in the light of demographic development in West European countries

The author examines some of the issues facing those responsible for developing family policies in European countries, many of which are experiencing rapid demographic aging. Population dynamics in Council of Europe member countries are first described. Implications of this trend for social policies as a whole are also reviewed.     

International migrations in Europe: Polish perspectives for the 1990s

"This article presents estimates of the size of emigration from Poland during the 1980s as well as projections concerning the migration patterns in the 1990s. The author anticipates a contraction of the volume of population outflow by some 50 percent: from about 100,000 to about 50,000 per year, on the average. These projections are based upon the examination of the role of a number of incentives and barriers to migration, including economic, demographic and political factors. In the final section, prospects concerning immigration to Poland are briefly discussed."     

Inheritance and wealth composition

This paper studies the effects of variables pertaining to alternative bequest motives on the composition of households' portofolio. It relies on a 1986 survey on the assets structure of 5600 French households. The main conclusion is that bequest motives indeed influence the composition of households' wealth. However, available data does not allow one to sort out the influence of specific models of inheritance.We thank John Ermisch, Jim Lindsey and two referees for their comments and suggestions. This research benefitted from the financial support of the SPES program.