Missing the Boat: Australia and Asylum Seeker Deterrence Messaging

Many of Australia's border protection policies have focused on attempts to deter the arrival of asylum seekers by boat. These include government ‘messaging’ in the hope this will influence the decision‐making of would‐be boat arrivals. This article outlines the findings of an exploratory study on the sources of information accessed by asylum seekers, prior to and during their boat journeys to Australia, about their destination country. The findings suggest that government media and Internet strategies focused on deterring asylum seekers are adopted without full regard to how information is sourced before and during these boat journeys.     

Navigating Islam and same-sex liaisons among men in Turkey

This study reports the experiences of 20 Turkish men in having sex with men in an Islamic society. As part of a broader study on Turkish homosexualities, the article analyzes responses to the question, "What joys and difficulties have you experienced regarding your sexual orientation in relation to Islam?" to elicit responses on how Islam and homosexuality might coexist in everyday life.     

Longitudinal network models and permutation-uniform Markov chains

Consider longitudinal networks whose edges turn on and off according to a discrete-time Markov chain with exponential-family transition probabilities. We characterize when their joint distributions are also exponential families with the same parameter, improving data reduction. Further we show that the permutation-uniform subclass of these chains permit interpretation as an independent, identically distributed sequence on the same state space. We then apply these ideas to temporal exponential random graph models, for which permutation uniformity is well suited, and discuss mean-parameter convergence, dyadic independence, and exchangeability. Our framework facilitates our introducing a new network model; simplifies analysis of some network and autoregressive models from the literature, including by permitting closed-form expressions for maximum likelihood estimates for some models; and facilitates applying standard tools to longitudinal-network Markov chains from either asymptotics or single-observation exponential random graph models.     

Modeling the Audit Opinions Issued to Bankrupt Companies: A Two‐stage Empirical Analysis*

Many observers are dissatisfied with the accounting profession's ability to warn the public of upcoming bankruptcy filings. Since regulators and users tend to treat an unmodified audit opinion as a “clean bill of health,” they do not expect the business to fail in the near future. Research has shown that more often than not, auditors end up letting users down when it comes to predicting bankruptcy filings with audit opinions. Although auditors assert they are not responsible for predicting future events, it is very clear that their opinion decision is evaluated, at least in part, based on events that occur after the audit report date. The interesting and logical next step is to find out how companies exit bankruptcy. Do they liquidate or reorganize? Successful reorganization may, in the end, exonerate auditors and preserve their role as an early warning device. The opinion prediction model developed in the paper introduces a new bankruptcy resolution variable that proxies for the auditor's prognosis of the ultimate disposition of the soon‐to‐be‐bankrupt company. Using a sample of bankruptcy filings between 1982 and 1992, we find that auditors do not seem to be able to predict filings or resolution. Our tests of bankruptcy resolution support what auditors have been arguing for years: that they are not clairvoyant with respect to a client's future.     

Evaluating and Refining Expert Critiquing Systems: A Methodology*

Expert critiquing systems are a rapidly growing class of intelligent decision support systems that apply artificial intelligence techniques to criticize a user's proposed solution to a problem. Critic programs now exist in the medical, engineering, programming, knowledge acquisition, word processing, and other domains. Critic refinement is a nontrivial activity that, even when done well, consumes a sizable fraction of the complete effort to build and deploy a critiquing system. To ease that effort, it is important to adopt a rigorous approach that allows one to reproducibly measure the degree of success of the current critic version and to predict which refinements will improve the critic further. The current article presents one such approach with actual case studies that illustrate its usage and elaborate selected aspects of the refinement process.