Religious affiliation and the family

The process of religious affiliation is mediated by institutions such as the family, which provide a network of ties to the public sphere. Variations in the likelihood of those with no religious affiliation in high school (N=900) becoming church members by the time they reach 30 are explained in terms of a combination of individual attributes, such as educational and spatial mobility, and changes in structural location, such as the transition to marital and parental status. Panel data from the Career Development Study show that women's chances of affiliation are more affected than are men's by parents' religious homogamy, getting married, and having children.     

Domains of convergence for the EM algorithm: a cautionary tale in a location estimation problem

The EM algorithm is a popular method for maximizing a likelihood in the presence of incomplete data. When the likelihood has multiple local maxima, the parameter space can be partitioned into domains of convergence, one for each local maximum. In this paper we investigate these domains for the location family generated by the t-distribution. We show that, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, these domains need not be connected sets. As an extreme case we give an example of a domain which consists of an infinite union of disjoint open intervals. Thus the convergence behaviour of the EM algorithm can be quite sensitive to the starting point.     

A theory of prudential values and a rule utilitarian theory of morality

Ethics can be divided into a theory of prudential values and a theory of morality in a narrower sense. My paper proposes a utilitarian — a rule-utilitarian — theory of morality. But it deviates from most of the utilitarian tradition by rejecting the hedonistic and subjectivistic accounts of prudential values favored by many utilitarian writers. While economists tend to define people's utility levels in terms of their actual preferences, ethics must define them in terms of their informed preferences. To prefer A over B does not mean to have a stronger desire for A than for B. Rather, it means to regard one's access to A as being more important than one's access to B. Even though different people often have quite different preferences, their basic desires seem to be much the same. We must choose our moral rules, and our society's moral code as a whole, by their social utility. An important factor in determining their social utility are their expectation effects. Unlike the rule — utilitarian more code, the act — utilitarian moral code would be unable to give proper weight to these expectation effects. It would also unduly restrict our individual freedom. Finally, I shall argue against Kant that morality is primarily a servant of many other human values rather than itself the highest value of human life.     

Significance of the Dermal Route of Exposure to Risk Assessment

The skin is a route of exposure that needs to be considered when conducting a risk assessment. It is necessary to identify the potential for dermal penetration by a chemical as well as to determine the overall importance of the dermal route of exposure as compared with inhalation or oral routes of exposure. The physical state of the chemical, vapor or liquid, the concentration, neat or dilute, and the vehicle, lipid or aqueous, is also important. Dermal risk is related to the product of the amounts of penetration and toxicity. Toxicity involves local effects on the skin itself and the potential for systemic effects. Dermal penetration is described in large part by the permeability constant. When permeability constants are not known, partition coefficients can be used to estimate a chemical's potential to permeate the skin. With these concepts in mind, a tiered approach is proposed for dermal risk assessment. A key first step is the determination of a skin-to-air or skin-to-medium partition coefficient to estimate a potential for dermal absorption. Building a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model is another step in the tiered approach and is useful prior to classical in vivo toxicity tests. A PBPK model can be used to determine a permeability constant for a chemical as well as to show the distribution of the chemical systemically. A detailed understanding of species differences in the structure and function of the skin and how they relate to differences in penetration rates is necessary in order to extrapolate animal data from PBPK models to the human. A study is in progress to examine anatomical differences for four species.     

DO DRINKERS KNOW WHEN TO SAY WHEN? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF DRUNK DRIVING

This paper presents empirical evidence that an individual's decision to drive while drunk is negatively affected by the expected full price of driving drunk. The analysis uses a unique data set containing information on self-reported drunk driving matched to state-level drunk driving policies as well as to state excise taxes on beer. These are hypothesized and found to affect drunk driving. Further, we find interesting racial differences but surprisingly small differences by gender in the effect of socioeconomic and policy variables on drunk driving propensities.     

Modelling map positional error to infer true feature location

The authors consider the issue of map positional error, or the difference between location as represented in a spatial database (i.e., a map) and the corresponding unobservable true location. They propose a fully model‐based approach that incorporates aspects of the map registration process commonly performed by users of geographic informations systems, including rubber‐sheeting. They explain how estimates of positional error can be obtained, hence estimates of true location. They show that with multiple maps of varying accuracy along with ground truthing data, suitable model averaging offers a strategy for using all of the maps to learn about true location.     

Carrying American Ideas to the Unconverted : la tentative manquée du MIT d'exporter la recherche opérationnelle au sein de l'OTAN

Recent scholarship on the 'Americanization' of economic and cultural practices emphasize that the Europeans were not passive victims of this 'colonizing' project but selectively appropriated or even completely rejected aspects of it. This paper extends these insights to a scientific field. It describes the failed attempt to export to NATO a theory-based, computer-dependent model of operations research which embedded civilian scientists deeply in the military decision-making process. This conception of operations research and its related social practices was blocked by the British, who rejected a model of operations research which called for a training in advanced mathematics and computing, and who insisted that NATO maintain a strict civil/military divide. 'Americanization' was a negotiated and contested project which, while stimulating an awareness for change in Europe, did not necessarily determine its trajectory.     

A subjectivist approach to consecutive conflict

An easily applied approach is developed to provide one participant in a sequence of conflicts with an optimal strategy. A goal of this article is to demonstrate that it is mathematically feasible to incorporate a decision maker's subjective distributions over the effects his actions will have on the outcomes of future conflicts. Unlike many other approaches, the model of this article does not restrict the beliefs that the participant is allowed to express. The participant, not the decision theorist, decides on what is relevent. Model assumptions required for updating rules, such as Bayesian updating, are not required unless they really are appropriate for the situation.Thanks are due to J. B. Kadane for suggesting the problem and for many helpful discussions.     

A sea change on the island continent: frameworks for risk assessment,prevention and intervention in child health in Australia

This article overviews prevention and early intervention approaches focusing specifically on their relevance to the health of children and young people in Australia. Australian public health has a sound track record although concealed within the aggregate profile are a number of sub-populations with poorer health indicators. Recognition of this has increased efforts to improve the health of children and young people especially in exploring the impact of social environments within the communities where children are raised. This paper examines emerging research in this area drawing out key lessons and learning from Australian experience in the field of early intervention and prevention in community settings.