A Note on the Separability Principle in Economies with Single-Peaked Preferences

We consider the problem of allocating an infinitely divisible commodity among a group of agents with single-peaked preferences. A rule that has played a central role in the analysis of the problem is the so-called uniform rule. Chun (2001) proves that the uniform rule is the only rule satisfying Pareto optimality, no-envy, separability, and Ω-continuity. We obtain an alternative characterization by using a weak replication-invariance condition, called duplication-invariance, instead of Ω-continuity. Furthermore, we prove that the equal division lower bound and separability imply no-envy. Using this result, we strengthen one of Chun’s (2001) characterizations of the uniform rule by showing that the uniform rule is the only rule satisfying Pareto optimality, the equal division lower bound, separability, and either Ω-continuity or duplication-invariance.     

Applied general equilibrium modeling for long-term energy policy in Germany

The energy model is based on an extension of applied general equilibrium models of the Leontief input-output type, first implemented by Hudson and Jorgenson (1974). One objective of our project is to choose specifications of sectoral production and cost functions that permit us to estimate the unknown parameters of the price functions and input demand functions from a single input-output table in ten energy and 35 non-energy industries. Our second objective is to determine the price for capital and labor as well as the components of final demand endogenously instead of using a separate growth model as an engine for the economic development. Our third objective is to combine the concept of price-dependent substitution within the input structure with the concept of vintage coefficients for the latest plants. By this we incorporate into the input-output analysis the effect on growth as a result of investment, the effect on capacity as a result of new plants, and the effect on prices as a result of new technologies. An application of the model shows the long-term impact on growth and prices under alternative technologies in the electricity industry (nuclear or coal-fired power plants).     

Size, book-to-market, and momentum during the business cycle

The Fama–French-Methodology (1993–1998) offers cross-sectional explanations of returns by taking the specially designed portfolios SMB and HML as additional factors. It is acknowledged that these factors are related to some forms of risk (they bear premia) which, by researchers is often proposed to be related to the uncertainty with respect to macroeconomic production and aggregate consumption. In more recent research a momentum factor is included in order to improve the explanatory power of the Fama–French-Model. We use data from business cycles 1926–2007 to show that SMB represents the risks related to the very early phase of an upswing while HML may be related to the uncertainty whether a business cycle will continue to gain depth and strength (or shifts back into recession). In contrast to SMB and HML, we do not find momentum to be related to risks associated with particular phases of the business cycle.     

Subset Selection Toward Optimizing the Best Performance at a Second Stage

In the search for the best of n candidates, two-stage procedures of the following type are in common use. In a first stage, weak candidates are removed, and the subset of promising candidates is then further examined. At a second stage, the best of the candidates in the subset is selected. In this article, optimization is not aimed at the parameter with largest value but rather at the best performance of the selected candidates at Stage 2. Under a normal model, a new procedure based on posterior percentiles is derived using a Bayes approach, where nonsymmetric normal (proper and improper) priors are applied. Comparisons are made with two other procedures frequently used in selection decisions. The three procedures and their performances are illustrated with data from a recent recruitment process at a Midwestern university.     

L’évolution démographique et l’automatisation,deux enjeux mondiaux pour l’avenir du travail

Les auteurs s'interrogent sur le nombre des emplois qu'il conviendra de créer demain pour répondre aux besoins engendrés par l'évolution démographique, économique et technologique. Ils font le calcul pour la période 2020-2030, en se fondant sur des projections de croissance démographique et de taux d'activité et en fixant des taux de chômage cibles. Les résultats sont ventilés par âge et par sexe. Les auteurs tiennent compte également de l'influence du niveau de revenu du pays et de l'automatisation. D'après leurs projections, les besoins de création d'emplois atteindront 340 millions en 2020-2030, et ils seront imputables à l'évolution démographique bien plus qu'à l'automatisation.     

Attitude strength moderates adverse effects to questionnaire design

ABSTRACT

The presentation and visual design of the “don’t know” category in rating scales on respondents’ behavior may have ambivalent effects. The hypothesis is that attitude strength toward the topic influences the respondents’ sensitivity to the graphical design of the scale. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire conducted among 307 German university students contained an experimental variation of the presentation of a “don’t know” category and its visual design. A multinomial logistic regression shows that presenting a “don’t know” category drives respondents toward extreme categories. The visual design of the “don’t know” category influences the distribution of responses, all the more that the respondents’ attitudes toward the item topic are weak.     

Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts

We assess the effects of the population age structure and the population dynamics on economic growth. Following recent research, we focus on the generational turnover effect to characterize the influence of birth and death rates, depending on the age profile of individual consumption, the extent of annuity market imperfections, and the willingness of households to shift consumption over time. Using data from the National Transfer Accounts on age profiles of consumption for a number of different countries, we assess—in a comparative way—the sign and the magnitude of the generational turnover effect and its impact on economic growth. We find considerable cross-country differences and trace them back to the underlying variation in demography and in the age structure of consumption.