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991.
P. Wesley Routon 《Journal of Family and Economic Issues》2018,39(4):647-661
Teenage parenthood is an often-discussed topic in family economics since it has been shown to affect many outcomes for the teen, child, and household. Using a nationally representative longitudinal panel of American teenagers and their parents, two questions related to the probability of teenage parenthood are examined. First, how do predictions of this occurrence made by the teenager’s parents vary across the population? Second, how does the accuracy of these predictions vary? The actual prevalence and variance of teenage parenthood are also examined, and the determinants of its occurrence are estimated. Among other results, expectations and their accuracy are found to differ substantially across socioeconomic status and some demographics such as race and religion. The average American parent underestimates the probability their child will become a teen parent by only a small amount, but within certain demographic groups this outcome is considerably underestimated, and in others it is overestimated. These differences help explain the variability in teen parenthood effects, and more broadly, the analysis serves as a test of parents’ ability to judge their childrens’ future outcomes. 相似文献
992.
Urban green spaces have been recognized as an important source of ecosystem services, whose quantification requires the determination of quantities related to energy, water, carbon and soil nutrient content. In this paper we propose a stochastic ecohydrological model that couples two existing models for water and nutrients in urban soil at the single street-tree scale. The model input are rainfall and irrigation, for water, and deposition and fertilization, for nitrogen, while the output are evapotranspiration, runoff and deep percolation, for water, and plant uptake and leaching, for nitrogen. The various terms are related to the amount of paved and impervious surfaces that surround the tree trunk and regulate the water and nutrient fluxes in and out the soil. Particular attention is paid to the effects of seasonal variations on plant water and nutrients through a temporal variation of the hydrologic variables (i.e., temperature and rainfall intensity and frequencies). The average model outputs are preliminarily compared with the scant existing literature data, supporting the model application to cities with different climatic conditions. The model results are used to estimate the potential for ecosystem services like tree cooling effects, soil carbon sequestration or storm-water management. Because of the minimal structure of the proposed model, it requires a very low amount of data, while accounting for the stochastic input of rainfall. In the context of climate change and increasing urbanization, the model may offer useful indications to urban planners to enhance ecosystem services while minimizing irrigation, fertilization and their related costs. 相似文献
993.
Amélie Desvars-Larrive Mario Baldi Theresa Walter Richard Zink Chris Walzer 《Urban Ecosystems》2018,21(5):951-964
Nowadays, the majority of human beings live in urban ecosystems, with this proportion expected to continue increasing in the future. With the growing importance of urban rat-associated issues (e.g. damages to urban infrastructures, costs of rat-control programs, rat-associated health risks), it is becoming indispensable to fill the identified gaps in knowledge on the urban brown rat regarding, among others, its density, home range, genetic structure, and infectious status. In this context, live-trapping is a crucial prerequisite to any scientific investigation. This paper assesses the main constraints and challenges regarding the urban field and describes the major steps to be considered when planning research on urban rats. The primary challenges are i) the characterization of the urban experimental unit; ii) the choice of a trapping design: the use of live-trapping in capture-mark-recapture design, in association with modern statistics, is highly recommended to answer ecological questions (although these methods, mostly developed in natural ecosystems, need to be implemented for the urban field); iii) the potential ethical considerations with regard to animal welfare and field-worker safety; iv) the building of mutually-beneficial collaborations with city stakeholders, pest control professionals, and citizens. Emphasis must be put on communication to the public and education of field-workers. One major need of modern urban rat research is a peer-validated field methodology allowing reproducibility, repeatability, and inference from urban field studies and enabling researchers to answer long-standing key questions about urban rat ecology. 相似文献
994.
For a two-dimensional contingency table of probabilities, the concept of symmetry around the main diagonal is well defined.
Statistical hypothesis test of symmetry versus positive bias have also been explored. For tables of higher (three or more)
dimensions, however, different concepts of symmetry are available. In this study, we consider statistical inference procedures
of symmetry in partial tables versus various biases in three-dimensional tables. We find the maximum likelihood estimates
of the cell probabilities and the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic in each case. Simulation
studies are used to investigate the sizes and powers of the tests. The methodologies developed are applied on real data sets. 相似文献
995.
We introduce a general Monte Carlo method based on Nested Sampling (NS), for sampling complex probability distributions and
estimating the normalising constant. The method uses one or more particles, which explore a mixture of nested probability
distributions, each successive distribution occupying ∼e
−1 times the enclosed prior mass of the previous distribution. While NS technically requires independent generation of particles,
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) exploration fits naturally into this technique. We illustrate the new method on a test problem
and find that it can achieve four times the accuracy of classic MCMC-based Nested Sampling, for the same computational effort;
equivalent to a factor of 16 speedup. An additional benefit is that more samples and a more accurate evidence value can be
obtained simply by continuing the run for longer, as in standard MCMC. 相似文献
996.
This experiment elicits beliefs about other people’s overconfidence and abilities. We find that most people believe that others
are unbiased, and only few think that others are overconfident. There is a remarkable heterogeneity between these groups.
Those people who think others are underconfident or unbiased are overconfident themselves. Those who think others are overconfident
are underconfident themselves. Despite this heterogeneity, people overestimate on average the abilities of others as they
do their own ability. One driving force behind this result is the refusal to process information about oneself: not only does
this lead to overestimation of one’s own ability, but by means of social projection also to overestimation of others’ abilities. 相似文献
997.
Pablo Acosta 《Population research and policy review》2011,30(4):569-589
This article looks at the consequences of migration in terms of child education and child labor using a unique rural panel
dataset for El Salvador. Results suggest gender differences in the consequences of migration on child activities that remain
in El Salvador. While female migration tends to reduce child labor, both in domestic and non-domestic activities, male migration
seems to stimulate it, in particular in terms of domestic labor. In contrast, while male migration has null or slightly positive
impact in terms of school enrollment rates, female migration apparently reduces the likelihood that a particular child stays
at school. Some of these results differ according to the gender of the child. The results do not seem to be driven by female
migrants remitting more than males, but rather to alternative competing explanations, such as the existence of child–adult
male labor substitution, differences in the use of remittances by gender of the recipient person, or limited ability to monitor
funds when remitted by female migrants. 相似文献
998.
Santiago Garganta Leonardo Gasparini Mariana Marchionni Mariano Tappatá 《Population research and policy review》2017,36(1):1-24
In 2009 Argentina introduced a large poverty-alleviation program (AUH) that provides monthly cash transfers per child to households without workers in the formal sector. In this paper we study the potential unintended effect of this program on fertility. We apply a difference-in-difference strategy comparing the probability of having a new child among eligible and ineligible mothers both before and after the program inception. The intention to treat estimations suggest a significant positive impact on fertility in households with at least one child (around 2 percentage points), but no significant effect on childless households. Given the short time window since the implementation of the AUH, we are unable to identify whether this positive effect reflects changes in the timing of births or in the equilibrium number of children. 相似文献
999.
1000.
In many statistical problems, maximum likelihood estimation by an EM or MM algorithm suffers from excruciatingly slow convergence.
This tendency limits the application of these algorithms to modern high-dimensional problems in data mining, genomics, and
imaging. Unfortunately, most existing acceleration techniques are ill-suited to complicated models involving large numbers
of parameters. The squared iterative methods (SQUAREM) recently proposed by Varadhan and Roland constitute one notable exception.
This paper presents a new quasi-Newton acceleration scheme that requires only modest increments in computation per iteration
and overall storage and rivals or surpasses the performance of SQUAREM on several representative test problems. 相似文献