Looking Forward Not Looking Back: The Evaluation of Community Living

This article outlines the development of evaluative methods within the field of mental handicap services. It suggests that evaluators have too often taken for granted the tacit assumptions underlying service models, using these to determine the criteria for evaluating success. It argues that evaluators should be more explicit about the values they adopt, and what patterns of life services should be enabling people to achieve. By more closely linking evaluation criteria to what people with a mental handicap should achieve, evaluation can become more effective in promoting positive change in service models. The article describes an approach developed by the authors for the evaluation of the 'All-Wales Strategy for the Development of Services for Mentally Handicapped People'.     

An analysis of two probabilistic model induction techniques

Two probabilistic model induction techniques, cart and constructor, are compared, via a series of experiments, in terms of their ability to induce models that are both interpretable and predictive. The experiments show that, although both algorithms are able to deliver classifiers with predictive performance close to that of the optimal Bayes rule,constructor is able to generate a probabilistic model that is more easily interpretable than the cart model. On the other hand, cart is a more mature algorithm and is capable of handling many more situations (e.g., real-valued training sets) thanconstructor. A variety of characteristics of both algorithms are compared, and suggestions for future research are made.     

Participation in Practice

This paper is one of a series written by members of the Mental Handicap Research Project at the University College of North Wales in connection with the All-Wales Strategy. Previous papers describe local arrangements for the planning of new services and discuss in general terms issues concerning partnership and participation. This paper describes modes of parental participation in the planning of new services for the mentally handicapped.     

Online surveys for BGLT research: issues and techniques

Online surveys are becoming increasingly popular for accessing less visible and decentralized populations, including bisexual, gay, lesbian and transgender (BGLT) populations. Advances in technology and convenience for the both the researcher and the participant have facilitated this trend. In this paper, we explore issues related to conducting BGLT survey research online, such as making decisions about survey formats, target populations and recruitment, compensation, access.     

Dealing with unknown variables in policy/program evaluation

A leading objection to the feasibility of applying benefit-cost analysis in evaluation is that one often cannot know the benefits, the costs, or the probabilities of their occurring for a given proposal. Threshold analysis involves handling unknown variables by converting relevant evaluation problems into questions as to whether a given benefit, cost, probability, or combination of these elements is more or less than a threshold. Above the threshold, the proposed program would be relatively profitable; and below the threshold, it would be relatively unprofitable. Applying that analysis may require the drawing of simple graphs to stimulate the minds of knowledgeable persons as to the range of the actual benefits, costs or probabilities. The approach can be applied when the benefits or the costs are either monetary or nonmonetary, and when the problems involve either go/no-go decisions or conflicting-choice decisions.