Remeasuring ageing in Hong Kong SAR; or ‘keeping the demographic window open’

Hong Kong SAR has among both the lowest fertility rates and highest life expectancy in the world. Under the current calculation of the Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR), Hong Kong is, understandably, ageing extremely rapidly. This is a cause of significant concern among policy makers. However, OADR assumes that the entire population aged above 65 is both ‘old’ and ‘dependent’, neither of which is clearly defined, and that all aged below 65 are active in the labour force. Furthermore, because the rate is fundamentally based upon a European/North American model of pension and retirement it is arguably less appropriate to areas of the world where retirement ages are more fluid and pension systems less developed. We apply and extend a method for Hong Kong, designed by Sanderson and Scherbov, to ‘remeasure ageing’ by taking remaining life expectancy as the constant, rather than years lived by using projected life tables and 1 × 1 population projections. In doing so, we show that Sanderson and Scherbov’s new ‘prospective’ measurements of ageing more accurately reflect the increased longevity and vitality of Hong Kong’s population. Rather than passively accepting fate as a ‘rapidly ageing’ population, East Asian economies can be active in rethinking society’s relationship to work and other activities across the life-cycle. By adapting existing measurements to take into account the different welfare regimes in East Asia, we can radically alter the timeframe in which population ageing becomes ‘critical’. This allows more time to develop a more holistic life-course view of the relationship between work, longevity and fertility and to actively tackle ageing in an optimistic way.     

The truncation-by-death problem: what to do in an experimental evaluation when the outcome is not always defined

Although experiments are viewed as the gold standard for evaluation, some of their benefits may be lost when, as is common, outcomes are not defined for some sample members. In evaluations of marriage interventions, for example, a key outcome--relationship quality--is undefined when a couple splits up. This article shows how treatment-control differences in mean outcomes can be misleading when outcomes are not defined for everyone and discusses ways to identify the seriousness of the problem. Potential solutions to the problem are described, including approaches that rely on simple treatment-control differences-in-means as well as more complex modeling approaches.     

Evaluating the benefits and costs of regulatory reforms: what questions need to be asked?

In 1984, Portney argued that "[w]e should scrutinize proposed reforms of the rulemaking process every bit as carefully as the regulations that process produces." In the 23 years since then, the regulatory process on the federal level has been continuously reformed by statute, by executive order, and by directives from the OMB. Despite the extensive debate on the need for these reforms, there has been very little analysis of the reforms themselves. This paper updates Portney's work on analyzing cost-benefit analysis and expands it to evaluate reforms of the regulatory process. I use as my primary example the recent peer-review guidelines issued by OMB. I argue that we may have reached a point of diminishing returns in regulatory reforms, that the peer-review guidelines likely have costs that exceed their benefits, and that further regulatory reforms merit closer evaluation.     

Psychology's role in the conserving society

Because the earth's natural resources are finite and are growing increasingly more difficult to exploit, energy and resource conservation will soon become essential to our way of life. Psychologists and other social scientists can help in that transition, and recently they have begun to do relevant research in several areas: environmental pollution, recycling and solid wastes, reducing litter, and energy usage and conservation. Research approaches that have been used include studies of environmental and energy attitudes, behavioral research, social interaction studies, community conservation programs, and large-scale consumer research. More work is especially needed on the topics of transportation energy use, industrial and commercial energy conservation, and community action campaigns. Research efforts should increasingly utilize measures of actual behavior and actual energy usage, long-term longitudinal approaches, realistic field settings, and costeffective procedures. In addition to doing research, psychologists can contribute to the advent of the conserving society through program evaluation studies, proposals for innovation, dissemination of validated scientific knowledge, and offering policy advice.     

Use of propensity score matching to evaluate a national smoking cessation media campaign

Sustained mass media campaigns have been recommended to stem the tobacco epidemic in the United States. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to estimate the effect of awareness of a national smoking cessation media campaign (EX) on quit attempts and cessation-related cognition. Participants were 4,067 smokers and recent quitters aged 18-49 in targeted U.S. media markets. Controlling for potential confounders through PSM and regression analysis, confirmed awareness of EX was not significantly associated with either outcome at 6-month follow-up. Matched analyses excluding 217 quitters resulted in a significant effect of EX on both outcomes.     

Thematic elements underlying the delivery of services in high-contact public service encounters

Earlier research alludes to the fact that enhanced information and systems (IS/IT) functionalities coupled with a lower degree of interaction with customers, the so-called zero- touch, real- time, self-service enhance services engagement. In this article, utilising a series of thematic elements drawn from two exploratory case studies, the authors suggest that the real enhancement of service delivery and increase in customer satisfaction, especially in frontline public service encounters, are not necessarily achieved through infusions of IS/IT, but from the adoption of a service philosophy which allows such organisations to de-emphasise IS/IT and instead focus on significant organisational factors in the area of enhanced human interaction.     

Penalized likelihood inference in extreme value analyses

Models for extreme values are usually based on detailed asymptotic argument, for which strong ergodic assumptions such as stationarity, or prescribed perturbations from stationarity, are required. In most applications of extreme value modelling such assumptions are not satisfied, but the type of departure from stationarity is either unknown or complex, making asymptotic calculations unfeasible. This has led to various approaches in which standard extreme value models are used as building blocks for conditional or local behaviour of processes, with more general statistical techniques being used at the modelling stage to handle the non-stationarity. This paper presents another approach in this direction based on penalized likelihood. There are some advantages to this particular approach: the method has a simple interpretation; computations for estimation are relatively straightforward using standard algorithms; and a simple reinterpretation of the model enables broader inferences, such as confidence intervals, to be obtained using MCMC methodology. Methodological details together with applications to both athletics and environmental data are given.     

A political-economic theory of relevance: Explaining climate change inaction

Why have societies failed to effectively respond to climate change? We address the question of climate change inaction by (1) examining how an unambiguously ominous report about climate change (IPCC 2018) was made palatable by news media and (2) explaining why climate change is typically unthematized in everyday life. Drawing on Adorno and Schutz, we develop a political-economic theory of relevance. The imperative to accumulate capital is not only a social-structural reality but also shapes why particular facts are regarded as relevant in experience (topical relevance) as well as how relevant material is interpreted (interpretative relevance) and acted toward (motivational relevance). Applying this framework, we (1) argue that media popularizations of the IPCC's dire Global Warming of 1.5°C (2018) are constituted by relevance systems conditioned by a capitalist social context and (2) strengthen Ollinaho's (2016) Schutzian explanation for climate change inaction by examining how productive relations and the culture industry perpetuate climate change irrelevance in everyday life. Schutz's framework helps conceptualize the intricacies of ideology and, when revised with Adorno's sociology, shines new light on an old question: the relations between social conditions and knowledge.