A Reality Check for Data Snooping

Data snooping occurs when a given set of data is used more than once for purposes of inference or model selection. When such data reuse occurs, there is always the possibility that any satisfactory results obtained may simply be due to chance rather than to any merit inherent in the method yielding the results. This problem is practically unavoidable in the analysis of time‐series data, as typically only a single history measuring a given phenomenon of interest is available for analysis. It is widely acknowledged by empirical researchers that data snooping is a dangerous practice to be avoided, but in fact it is endemic. The main problem has been a lack of sufficiently simple practical methods capable of assessing the potential dangers of data snooping in a given situation. Our purpose here is to provide such methods by specifying a straightforward procedure for testing the null hypothesis that the best model encountered in a specification search has no predictive superiority over a given benchmark model. This permits data snooping to be undertaken with some degree of confidence that one will not mistake results that could have been generated by chance for genuinely good results.     

Intermediate Performance Impacts of Advanced Manufacturing Technology Systems: An Empirical Investigation*

A large-scale random sample is used to empirically examine the relationships between implementation of Advanced Manufacturing Technology (AMT) and three organization-level measures that have historically been attributed to AMT, but not fully tested along the AMT spectrum: market-oriented flexibility of the production process, organizational integration of production processes, and administrative intensity of the organization. Results indicate that as an organization moves along the technology scale from stand-alone AMT (e.g., CNC machines) through functionally oriented AMT (FMS and CAM) toward CIM, not only do its production processes become more integrated with each other, but those processes become more integrated with other functional systems of the organization, and the quality and timeliness of production information increase. Furthermore, this relationship becomes stronger as companies increase their level of implementation for the latter two technologies. Conversely, market-oriented flexibility decreases and administrative intensity is not observed to change as companies move along the technology spectrum. Future research should examine how organizational redesign and implementation strategies that accompany AMT implementation can concomitantly enhance organizational integration of the production process and market-oriented flexibility.     

Social positioning theory and quantum mechanics

Social positioning theory, or an account of the human individual that it grounds, qualifies as a quantum social theory. This is an assessment that I explain and defend in the paper. It is of interest in that, in a world where increasing numbers are seeking to construct quantum social theories, it serves to help demonstrate that this goal can be achieved without giving up on meeting criteria like explanatory intelligibility or power or discarding real-world notions like human (and other) entities. As it turns out, a central feature of the account defended and a core element of the ‘standard’ interpretation of quantum mechanics are found to stand in an interesting, unanticipated and suggestive relation to each other.     

Changes in Racial Apathy Among White Young Adults: A Five-Year National Panel Study

This study investigates changes in racial apathy among white young adults using nationally representative panel survey data from the NSYR. Our regression models include social background, social values, and academic orientation variables specified as important correlates of racial apathy in prior cross-sectional studies. We also include interracial contact variables, which existing studies neglect. According to intergroup contact theory, interracial contact should predict decreases in racial apathy. We find variables specified as important correlates in prior cross-sectional studies do not explain changes in racial apathy across time. Surprisingly, interracial friendship associates negatively with increases and decreases in racial apathy. Further, interracial dating predicts increases in racial apathy across time. These findings suggest racial apathy may be dissimilar to other forms of white racial prejudice and interracial contact may be an ineffective method to reduce contemporary forms of white racial prejudice.     

Employment of Older People in the European Union

Abstract. This article identifies the alternative employment modes of older workers in the European Union. Against a background of changing levels of labour force participation and declining employment opportunities the paper describes and discusses the relative significance for older workers of alternative employment modes. Two atypical modes, part‐time and self‐employment, are discussed in detail. The paper concludes that atypical employment modes offer ageing employees the opportunity to gradually retire by providing a bridge between full‐time employment and final retirement.     

Child protection pathways for newborn infants: A multi-disciplinary retrospective chart review of an Irish maternity hospital’s records

In Ireland, little is known about mothers and infants where child welfare and protection concerns arise during the perinatal period. This study explores, for the first time, perinatal child protection. A retrospective audit was carried out of a large maternity hospital's medical social work, neonatal and psychiatric files for a five-year period from 2016 to 2020. The study identified 99 children, born to 86 mothers, who were either subject to a child protection conference; placed for adoption; discharged to someone other than the mother; or discharged home under supervision. The study found that two-thirds of the children were discharged to their mother's care. When compared to national data, the health indicators for this cohort of mothers and children painted a grim picture. The maternal profiles identified high prevalence of mental health and addiction difficulties and domestic violence. The study found evidence of supports provided to the mothers to enable them to care for their infants while they remained in the hospital and during an initial discharge from hospital. However, a significant number of the mothers were not caring for their children when viewed across a longer time frame. Dedicated multi-disciplinary clinics and improved data systems were identified as of importance.     

Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Nonparametric Entropy Measures of Serial Dependence

Entropy is a classical statistical concept with appealing properties. Establishing asymptotic distribution theory for smoothed nonparametric entropy measures of dependence has so far proved challenging. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic theory for a class of kernel‐based smoothed nonparametric entropy measures of serial dependence in a time‐series context. We use this theory to derive the limiting distribution of Granger and Lin's (1994) normalized entropy measure of serial dependence, which was previously not available in the literature. We also apply our theory to construct a new entropy‐based test for serial dependence, providing an alternative to Robinson's (1991) approach. To obtain accurate inferences, we propose and justify a consistent smoothed bootstrap procedure. The naive bootstrap is not consistent for our test. Our test is useful in, for example, testing the random walk hypothesis, evaluating density forecasts, and identifying important lags of a time series. It is asymptotically locally more powerful than Robinson's (1991) test, as is confirmed in our simulation. An application to the daily S&P 500 stock price index illustrates our approach.     

Seeds of Corruption? The Contingent Role of Ties to Politicians and Foreign Subsidiary Relations with Government-Sponsored Financial Institutions

In drawing from transaction cost economics and social network theories, this study examines the influence of corruption as a determinant of foreign subsidiary formal contracting practices with government-sponsored financial institutions. We hypothesize that lower corruption distance (between parent home and host countries) and higher perceived corruption (in host country) are positively related, and mutually reinforcing, when considering a foreign subsidiary's propensity to formally contract with government-sponsored financial institutions. We also suggest that these relationships strengthen with the intensification of political ties to government officials who can offer preferential political services via contractual agreements, changing the nature of market transactions in favour of a foreign subsidiary. We found support for our hypotheses using data from a sample of over 350 subsidiaries located in the Philippines and Thailand.