贝叶斯方法和频率方法比较研究

频率学派和贝叶斯学派作为统计推理中的两个最重要的方法,对于这两种对立的研究方式的站队选择显然影响着研究者的研究活动。占有霸主地位的频率学派尽管是后来者,显然占有着优势的地位,而今年以来贝叶斯方法的复苏,重新向频率派发起挑战。文章从概率的产生作为开始,简单地介绍了统计的发展历程,并分别对这两种方法选择的实用、重要的可操作标准给予分析,认为两种方法各有利弊,对两种方法的选择应结合实际情况选择。     

职校创业教育的“2+X”模式

分析了当前职校创业教育的紧迫性和必要性,创造性地从学校、企业、学生自身三方面提出了创业教育的"2+X"模式,探讨职校创业教育运行机制的构建和实践创新的问题。     

Online crisis communication in a post-truth Chinese society: Evidence from interdisciplinary literature

Through a thematic content analysis of 118 journal articles from interdisciplinary fields, this study reviews the research trends of online crisis communication literature in a Chinese post-truth society, where objective facts play a diminishing role, and Chinese people are losing their trust, despite the best efforts of organizations to deal with fake news in crises. Results of this study disclose some unique crisis communication strategies (e.g., strategic distraction, rumor-rebuttal, fabrication, acting cute, and content censorship) in crises of China. Influential contextual factors such as the political system, cultural values, and media features are identified as well. Theoretical and practical implications of this study are discussed, and a greater picture of online crisis communication in contexts is posited for future research.     

Asset or Liability: Transnational Links and Political Participation of Foreign‐Born Citizens in Taiwan

Viewed as outsiders clinging onto links with their country of origin, immigrants do not often feature positively in electoral politics in their host society. Challenging this conventional view, this article examines how immigrants make use of their transnational ties to foster their political participation in the host state. This exploration is conducted through our study of the political participation of Vietnamese and Chinese immigrants in Taiwan. Our research finds that transnational ties are politicized by the mainstream political parties. However, such politicization does not necessarily restrict immigrants’ agency and their sociopolitical space for political participation. Their transnational ties constitute a dynamic sociopolitical field in which these maintained connections are acted upon and give rise to a variety of strategies for responding to issues affecting their interests.     

Assessments of provincial mortality in China’s 2010 population census based on the Developing Countries Mortality Database model life table

Journal of Population Research - The provincial mortality data of China’s 2010 population census sustains the study of regional mortality disparities, but the data suffer from the...     

多层供应链外包模式的选择及其协调

本文研究由两个原始设备制造企业（品牌企业）、一个代工企业和一个供应商组成的多层供应链的外包模式选择问题。应用主从博弈和纳什博弈理论，当一个原始设备制造企业的外包模式给定后，通过对不同外包模型求解比较，给出了后跟进的原始设备制造企业外包模式的最优选择策略。研究发现：后跟进的原始设备制造企业最优策略应采取与前一个原始设备制造企业相同的外包策略。针对最优外包策略，还设计了使供应链达到协调的二部定价契约机制，提高了外包供应链的竞争力。     

Relational Management Mechanisms for Strategic Alliances Among Nonprofit Organizations

This study employs a qualitative multiple-case study to explore relational management mechanisms for strategic nonprofit alliances (NPAs) formed by at least 3 nonprofit organizations by examining collaborative relationships among farmers associations in Taiwan. We explore these mechanisms by analyzing case data from four strategic cooperation characteristics, which can best explain NPAs. To effectively sustain partnerships, our findings suggest that an NPA applies acceptable collaborative rules and regulations, common standard procedures, symmetric information and communication, and capability building and corrective measures when cooperation involves high input commonality. The results also suggest empowerment for partners with deeper input commitment to direct decisions on resource distribution and utilization when collaborative ties involve low input measurability. Regarding high output commonality, we advise NPAs to enforce common output quality control, efficient substandard-output treatment, and external incentives as mechanisms to encourage partners for continued commitment. If relationships involve low output measurability, our findings suggest that NPAs heighten partners’ voluntary motivation for the common good, with goal-achievement assessment measures, professional certification by external experts, and acceptable and reasonable benefit-sharing methods     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

一个关于宏观经济增长质量的一般理论——基于微观产品质量的解释

现有的经济增长质量理论主要是结构调整的宏观思路,其在理论上的局限性是忽视了支撑经济增长质量的微观基础。宏观经济增长质量是经济中具体的微观产品(一二三产业中具体产品和服务)质量的加总,因此必须以微观产品质量为基础构建经济增长质量的一般理论。以微观产品质量为基础的经济增长质量一般理论,在定义、动力机制以及政策含义上与现有理论有显著差异。微观产品质量促进宏观经济增长质量的理论假设,可以在区域层面得到初步的检验。政策建议是宏观经济增长质量的提高必须以微观的产品质量为核心。