Semiparametric Bayesian analysis for longitudinal mixed effects models with non-normal AR(1) errors

Statistics and Computing - This paper studies Bayesian inference on longitudinal mixed effects models with non-normal AR(1) errors. We model the nonparametric zero-mean noise in the autoregression...     

The Ecology of Activism: Professional Mobilization as a Spatial Process

This article develops an ecological theory that shifts the paradigm of professional mobilization from causes to relational spaces. It analyzes different species of activist professionals by locating them in an ecology of activism and examining how collective action emerges from their boundary work with the ecology's increasing density and consolidation. It empirically grounds the theory by explaining the political activism of Chinese lawyers in the early twenty‐first century and how it led to a government crackdown in 2015. Using interviews, online ethnography, and archival data collected from 2005 to 2017, the research demonstrates that Chinese lawyers’ political mobilization has experienced three stages: (1) vacancy and isolation (2000–2007), (2) spatial consolidation (2008–2011), and (3) boundary work (2011–2015). The study has implications for theories of social space and for understanding professional mobilization in authoritarian contexts and beyond.     

对实验哲学三个基本问题的质疑与辩护

实验哲学自兴起以来,科学哲学界对它的质疑和批评从未停止:质疑实验哲学方法的有效性,怀疑实验结论的可靠性,甚至否定实验哲学的学科独立性。针对这些质疑和责难,文章试图通过对实验哲学的学科定位,实验哲学方法本身和实验哲学研究领域进行批判性分析,展开对实验哲学的辩护。     

Modeling turnover intention and job performance: the moderation of perceived benevolent climate

Review of Managerial Science - Drawing upon the conservation of resources theory and ethical climate theory, this study develops a mediation model that explains how job stress influences both job...     

中国极地研究的新视角、新进展

极地问题是国内外学界关注的一个热点与前沿问题,研究的成果丰硕,目前在中国已基本形成了三大分支派别:政策学研究、国际关系学研究和国际法学研究。其中政策学研究是目前最有影响的派别之一,代表性的著作成果有《极地国家政策研究报告(2012-2013)》,该研究报告具有鲜明的研究特点:一是"资源-利益-政策"的极地研究方法;二是清晰的极地国家利益概念;三是理论与实践相结合的极地研究框架;四是极地研究内容的深刻完整与现实性。其对学界的极地研究和中国政府的极地战略决策具有重要参考价值。     

新冠肺炎疫情下对完善快递末端配送体系建设的思考——以重庆市为例

自新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，快递业为应急救援物资和人民群众日常基本生活物资运输和寄递服务、畅通经济循环、满足民生需要等方面做出了重要贡献，为疫情防控提供了强有力的支撑；但同时也暴露出了一些问题，集中体现在末端配送体系不健全、末端收投不畅等方面。在对电子商务和快递业发展现状进行分析的基础上，对快递末端配送的主要模式和发展趋势进行了论述，结合重庆市的实际情况，分析了其末端配送存在的不足，并从公共服务平台搭建、智能化无接触式配送构建、乡村快递服务网络完善、快递员队伍建设等方面提出了对策建议，以助推重庆经济社会高质量发展。     

The disembedded digital economy: Social protection for new economy employment in China

This research focuses upon employment in the new economy, exploring labour protection and social protection in the digital age in China. Through an empirical survey conducted in three Chinese cities, social insurance and the labour rights of employees in the digital economic sector, such as gig employment, e-commerce, and various other forms of online employment, have been examined in-depth. This study reveals new regulatory loopholes in the digital labour market, which have substantially eroded the basis of social policy arrangements in China, “softening” participation in social insurance branches and compliance with labour regulations remarkably. Drawing upon the theoretical concepts of Polanyi on embeddedness and disembeddedness, we argue that the digital employment sector in China has been increasingly disembedded from social institutions and social control. The new configuration in the digital field of social policy requires novel conceptual models and institutional settings to cope with increasing social risks in virtual spaces.     

波普尔论马克思主义理论科学性的基本思路及其启示

科学的庸俗化在马克思时代已经很严重,马克思科学研究的着力点就在于批判资产阶级经济学的庸俗化。然而长期以来,马克思的科学方法论并没有得到很好的理解,一些与马克思根本不相容的观点以科学的名义在马克思主义中大行其道,导致马克思主义理论自身的种种困境。大量文献表明,在传统经验科学意义上理解马克思主义理论的科学性,是导致马克思主义理论庸俗化的重要原因。科学哲学家波普尔意识到,靠再多的"证明"也说明不了马克思主义理论的科学性,其精神实质是反对马克思主义教条化。但是在这一过程中波普尔同样没有看到马克思对传统经验科学的超越,引发了马克思主义理论阐释中的新一轮庸俗化浪潮。     

货币增速剪刀差与股票价格波动的相关性实证研究--基于结构突变视角

为深入认知我国货币政策与股票市场间的传导机制,在阐述结构突变理论,揭示数据生成过程运行轨迹的基础上,选用2004年1月至2012年8月的月度数据,以货币增速剪刀差和上证综合指数为考察指标,利用滤波图分析、外生性与BLS内生性结构突变单位根检验及Granger因果关系检验方法,实证检验两者关系。表明货币增速剪刀差序列服从平稳过程,上证指数序列为含有在2006年9月和2007年7月发生结构突变的平稳过程。上证指数与货币增速剪刀差之间存在单向因果关系。     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.