Outsourcing in the public refuse collection sector: exploiting old certainties or exploring new possibilities?

An outsourcing process in a medium-size city, by Norwegian standards, provided the background for our study. In 1996, the city council decided to contract out the refuse collection in half of its total area (the western part of the city), and to let the public refuse collection enterprise continue to collect in the other half of the area. The public enterprise also participated in the competitive tender, without success, however. The bid submitted by the public refuse collection enterprise was used as the basis for a benchmarking process performed by the chief administrative officer of the city in May 1999. The process resulted in the requirement that the public enterprise downsize its number of refuse collectors by 27 per cent. The city thus acquired a more cost-effective refuse collection system both in the western part, now run by a private company, and in the rest of the city, where the collection remained the responsibility of the public enterprise, in its newly pared-down and reorganized version. Detectable changes in the refuse collectors' health status in the three-year period immediately following the outsourcing constitute our main focus in this study. We found that the downsizing and reorganization of the public enterprise had a negative impact on the refuse collectors' health status. One year after the downsizing, six of the 27 refuse collectors remaining in the public enterprise had been diagnosed with heart problems or musculoskeletal pains that were sufficiently serious to form the basis of their individual approaches to secure a disability pension, which all six were in the process of acquiring. The registered sick leave among the refuse collectors showed a dramatic increase during the same period. We found clear indications that the refuse collectors remaining in the employment of the public enterprise had no alternatives in the labour market. Although not the focus of this study, we found that the totality of costs and benefits, not only for the enterprise in question, but also for local and national authorities, needs to be considered in any realistic assessment of the impact of public sector outsourcing of activities.     

The diffusion of modern contraception in norway and its consequences for the fertility pattern

The Norwegian Fertility Survey of 1977 shows that most of the population make adequate use of contraception. Only 7 per cent of those who did not desire to become pregnant dit not use birth control. The reduction in fertility and changes in the age-specific fertility pattern have not been as great as one would expect. The younger cohorts have not had changes in fertility as great as the changes in contraception would imply, whereas the older ones have had even greater changes. We conclude that changes in the age-specific fertility pattern have not been causally dependent on the contraceptive pattern     

A hierarchical frailty model applied to two-generation melanoma data

We present a hierarchical frailty model based on distributions derived from non-negative Lévy processes. The model may be applied to data with several levels of dependence, such as family data or other general clusters, and is an alternative to additive frailty models. We present several parametric examples of the model, and properties such as expected values, variance and covariance. The model is applied to a case-cohort sample of age at onset for melanoma from the Swedish Multi-Generation Register, organized in nuclear families of parents and one or two children. We compare the genetic component of the total frailty variance to the common environmental term, and estimate the effect of birth cohort and gender.     

Use of multiple imputation in supersampled nested case-control and case-cohort studies

Nested case-control and case-cohort studies are useful for studying associations between covariates and time-to-event when some covariates are expensive to measure. Full covariate information is collected in the nested case-control or case-cohort sample only, while cheaply measured covariates are often observed for the full cohort. Standard analysis of such case-control samples ignores any full cohort data. Previous work has shown how data for the full cohort can be used efficiently by multiple imputation of the expensive covariate(s), followed by a full-cohort analysis. For large cohorts this is computationally expensive or even infeasible. An alternative is to supplement the case-control samples with additional controls on which cheaply measured covariates are observed. We show how multiple imputation can be used for analysis of such supersampled data. Simulations show that this brings efficiency gains relative to a traditional analysis and that the efficiency loss relative to using the full cohort data is not substantial.     

Post-truth and public relations: Special section introduction

With spindoctoring, publicity seeking stunts and evidence of mal-practice, public relations is easily associated with the development of post-truth society. The elevation of bullshit as political coinage presents a challenge for the rational public debate which the public relations profession at large should have an interest in maintaining. In this introduction, we briefly highlight some of these challenges for public relations. We point to how papers in the special section tie into these challenges, by for instance, helping to understand the construction of truth, how to construct a defense for legitimate public relations and engage with publics, as well as to build a professional practice through developing and measuring communication.     

Family Life History and Late Mid‐Life Mortality in Norway

Using data on all Norwegians born 1935–68, we analyze the associations between mortality and a combined indicator of fertility and marital or partnership status and history. The focus is on ages 40–73 and the years 1980–2008 (30 million person‐years of observations and 117,000 deaths). Among men in first marriages, the childless have 36 percent higher mortality than those with two or more children. The corresponding figure for women is 61 percent. The never‐married have higher mortality and are differentiated even more by parenthood status. Thus, childless never‐married men and women have mortality three times as high as those who are married and have two or more children. The apparent advantage associated with having at least two children is smallest among men who divorced before their oldest child's tenth birthday. Having step‐children has no association with mortality for those without natural children but is associated with higher mortality among the parous.     

Demonstrations against demonstrations: the dispiriting emotions of the Kremlin’s social media ‘mobilization’

This article proposes a new approach to understanding Russian pro-regime counter-demonstrations, arguing that starting from 2014, they have acquired a distinctively demobilizational outlook: whereas the opposition seeks to mobilize the population to action, what suits the regime best is a safely de-mobilized majority. This interpretation requires a perspective different from that used for studying opposition demonstrations: instead of seeing the regime’s social media strategy for promoting counter-demonstrations as attempts to attract maximum involvement, the message should be judged on its capacity to discourage large-scale collective action. To show how this works in practice, the two biggest recent pro-regime counter-demonstrations are analysed: their context and background and the promotion of them on their official VKontakte pages and in related Twitter posts by prominent pro-regime tweeters. What may appear as strategies to mobilize for counter-demonstrations emerge as efforts to engender emotions that serve the regime’s purpose of keeping the population apolitical and passive.