当前社会的情报及其未来

二次世界大战以后,随着科学技术的发展,人们普遍产生了一种热望,希望经济会无限增长,福利会无限提高.到了七十年代初,能源危机和环境污染的现象使这种乌托邦式的幻想化为乌有.人们普遍认识到:1、人类生存空间的限度决定了人口增长的限度;2、原料、能源资源的限度决定了物质生产和人的消费的限度;3、生态系统的承受能力有限决定了污染的程度不能超过限度.但这些还只是外界给人类的发展所规定的界限.除此之外,人类自身有许多无法逾越的界限,其中之一就是人处理日益增多的情报的能力有限.情报(信息)也象人口、经济一样,按几何级数增长,现在已经没有人能独自地处理情报了.     

Motivators for Seeking Gambling-Related Treatment Among Ontario Problem Gamblers

A random digit dialing telephone survey was used to interview 8,467 adults in Ontario, Canada. The NODS-CLiP was used to identify a representative sample of 730 gamblers (54.3% male, mean age 45.3 years) with possible past year gambling problems in order to explore factors that might affect disordered gamblers’ motivators for seeking gambling-related help. A final sample of 526 gamblers provided useable data on possible reasons for and barriers to seeking help, awareness of services, self-perception of gambling problems and experience with help-seeking. Financial and relationship issues were the most frequently volunteered motivators. However, over two-thirds of the respondents could not think of a reason for seeking help. Gamblers who had self-admitted or more severe problems, who knew how to get help, who were employed and had more education, and who identified possible barriers to seeking help were more likely to suggest motivators, especially financial ones. More research is recommended on gamblers’ trajectory towards recognition of a gambling problem, the process of overcoming specific barriers to treatment, and the role of social advantage (e.g., education and employment), in order to devise educational campaigns that will encourage earlier help-seeking among disordered gamblers.     

Variance Function Regression in Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Models: Applications to the Study of Self-Reported Health

Two long-standing research problems of interest to sociologists are sources of variations in social inequalities and differential contributions of the temporal dimensions of age, time period, and cohort to variations in social phenomena. Recently, scholars have introduced a model called Variance Function Regression for the study of the former problem, and a model called Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort regression has been developed for the study of the latter. This article presents an integration of these two models as a means to study the evolution of social inequalities along distinct temporal dimensions. We apply the integrated model to survey data on subjective health status. We find substantial age, period, and cohort effects, as well as gender differences, not only for the conditional mean of self-rated health (i.e., between-group disparities), but also for the variance in this mean (i.e., within-group disparities)-and it is detection of age, period, and cohort variations in the latter disparities that application of the integrated model permits. Net of effects of age and individual-level covariates, in recent decades, cohort differences in conditional means of self-rated health have been less important than period differences that cut across all cohorts. By contrast, cohort differences of variances in these conditional means have dominated period differences. In particular, post-baby boom birth cohorts show significant and increasing levels of within-group disparities. These findings illustrate how the integrated model provides a powerful framework through which to identify and study the evolution of variations in social inequalities across age, period, and cohort temporal dimensions. Accordingly, this model should be broadly applicable to the study of social inequality in many different substantive contexts.     

当心经济险滩!——试析美、日、欧经济的前景与影响

世界经济正减速。美国在经历了近10年的持续有力的增长之后,发展速度显著下降。欧洲也是如此,疲态已尽显无遗,日本经济10年来毫无起色。如此看来,我们是否在走向衰退或金融危机?我们将如何应对?     

Perceptual load in central and peripheral regions and its effects on driving performance: advertizing billboards

A broadened version of the perceptual load model was utilized to explore systematically the influence of four variables on driver's behavior: a. levels of load on the road; b. levels of load at the sides of the road; c. event's initial location (on the road vs. at the sides of the road); and d. the presence and size of advertizing billboards. 18 participants participated in two experimental sessions in a driving simulator. One of the sessions contained advertizing billboards and the other session did not. The results indicated that billboards can have a considerable effect on various aspects of driving like the time required responding to a potentially dangerous event or simply the number of accidents occurring during driving, but importantly the effect of billboards on driving was modulated by the levels of perceptual load.     

Gambling in Western and Eastern Europe: The Example of Hungary

The history of gambling in post-socialist countries is noticeably different from that of other countries in Europe. The goal of this study was therefore twofold: Firstly, to systematically review all European epidemiological studies related to excessive gambling in the general adult population, and secondly, to provide an overview of the state of gambling in Hungary based on the first ever nationwide representative survey, setting the results against the backdrop of the earlier European studies. A systematic review was carried out of European gambling studies which focus on a representative adult general population. Hungarian data was obtained from the National Survey on Addiction Problems in Hungary general adult population survey (N = 2,710). Pathological gambling was measured by the South Oaks Gambling Screen. Lifetime prevalence of excessive gambling (problem and pathological gambling) in the general adult population of European countries varies between 1.1% (Italy and Spain) and 6.5% (Estonia). In Hungary, the prevalence of problem gambling is 1.9%, with pathological gambling at 1.4%. The socio-demographic characteristics of the results are similar to those of other European countries. Using epidemiological data from the general adult populations of two post-socialist nations, it was possible to compare the results with data from 12 other European countries. Based on the data available, the extremely rapid liberation of the gambling market in the post-socialist countries has led to a similarly swift escalation in associated gambling problems.     

风暴之后的风平浪静:智利的收入分配与社会福利

近年来,两次突如其来的“风暴”对智利的收入分配造成了严重影响。第一次风暴(也是最为严重的)是由一系列经济结构改革和政治体制的重大变化所引发的,这次改革始于1974年,在80年代后期基本完成,包括贸易自由化、国有资产私有化、税收制度的改革等重要内容。与此同时,政治体制各种微妙的变化也对智利的收入分配造成了一定的影响第二次风暴的冲击对象是学术界和决策层,人们就智利的经济发展模式以及贫困和不平等等现象展开了激烈的争论。由于智利加快了贸易自由化的步伐,因此,熟练工人与非熟练工人之间的贫富差异进一步拉大。尽管缺少足够的统…     

The impact of children on a parent's risk of suicide following death of a spouse, Belgium 1991-96

Since Durkheim's work on suicide, the family has widely been seen as providing partial protection against the development of tendencies to suicide. This study assesses the impact of parenthood (both number of children and age of youngest child) on suicide following the death of a spouse. Using data for Belgium in the 5 years following the 1991 census, the study adopts a nested case-control design with information on 3,800 suicides and 75,673 matched controls. The analysis takes into account several social-economic variables. The findings show that the impact of children on the elevated suicide levels found among widows and widowers relative to the still married can be positive or negative, and differs by both age and sex of the parent, age of the child or children, and time since bereavement.