PREDICTING RETIREMENT SAVINGS USING SURVEY MEASURES OF EXPONENTIAL‐GROWTH BIAS AND PRESENT BIAS

In a nationally representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey‐based elicitations of exponential‐growth bias (EGB) and present bias (PB). We find that EGB, the tendency to neglect compounding, and PB, the tendency to value the present over the future, are highly significant and economically meaningful predictors of retirement savings. These relationships hold controlling for cognitive ability, financial literacy, and a rich set of demographic controls. We address measurement error as a potential confound and explore mechanisms through which these biases may operate. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that eliminating EGB and PB would increase retirement savings by approximately 12%. (JEL D91, D14)     

Serve or Conserve: Mission,Strategy, and Multi-Level Nonprofit Change During the Great Recession

Change is frequently afoot in the nonprofit sector, both in the wider institutional environment in which nonprofits operate and within the organizations themselves. Environmental transformations—funding sources, supply and demand for collective goods, and administrative norms—create the circumstances in which organizations operate. Internally, change involves the alteration of goals, practices, and personnel. To explore how multiple aspects of change intersect across levels, we ask how organizations’ practices influence their experience of and reaction to changes in the environment. Turning open systems theories inside out, we argue that internal planning, routines, and missions give rise to organizational mindsets that imbue evolving environmental circumstances with meaning. We illustrate our argument using a unique longitudinal dataset of 196 representative 501(c)(3) public charities in the San Francisco Bay Area from 2005 to 2015 to assess both accelerators and obstacles of change. Empirically, we investigate predictors of organizational insolvency and the ability to serve constituents in the wake of the Great Recession. We find that strategic planning decreases the likelihood of insolvency whereas an orientation toward the needy increases spending. We conclude with our contributions to understanding of multi-level organizational change and nonprofit strategy.     

An agent-based model of indirect minority influence on social change and diversity

The present paper describes an agent-based model of indirect minority influence. It examines whether indirect minority influence can lead to social change as a function of cognitive rebalancing, a process whereby related attitudes are affected when one attitude is changed. An attitude updating algorithm was modelled with minimal assumptions drawing on social psychology theories of indirect minority influence. Results revealed that facing direct majority influence, indirect minority influence along with cognitive rebalancing is a recipe for social change. Furthermore, indirect minority influence promotes and maintains attitudinal diversity in local ingroups and throughout the society. We discuss the findings in terms of social influence theories and suggest promising avenues for model extensions for theory building in minority influence and social change.     

Technology,slavery and the Falmouth Water Company of Jamaica, 1799–1805

Slave societies such as Jamaica were among the earliest regions to adopt new technologies, suggesting that slavery was not synonymous with economic backwardness. This article uses the efforts of the Falmouth Water Company to adopt the new hydraulic ram between 1799 and 1805 to show that this process was also not restricted to the plantation sector and that the island possessed an unexpected capacity for technological adaption. This was based on local skills in mechanical and civil engineering derived from the plantation sector, and a wider political and financial background that supported innovation when the right conditions were in place.     

Employment relations and dismissal regulations: Does employment legislation protect the health of workers?

Sociologists have long acknowledged that being in a precarious labour market position, whether employed or unemployed, can harm peoples' health. However, scholars have yet to fully investigate the possible contextual, institutional determinants of this relationship. Two institutions that were overlooked in previous empirical studies are the regulations that set minimum compensation for dismissal, severance payments, and entitlements to a period of notice before dismissal, notice periods. These institutions may be important for workers' health as they influence the degree of insecurity that workers are exposed to. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining whether longer notice periods and greater severance payments protect the health of labour market participants, both employed and unemployed. We constructed two cohorts of panel data before and during the European recession using data from 22 countries in the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (person years = 338,000). We find more generous severance payments significantly reduce the probability that labour market participants, especially the unemployed, will experience declines in self‐reported health, with a slightly weaker relationship for longer notice periods.     

Subgroup analysis and interpretation for phase 3 confirmatory trials: White paper of the EFSPI/PSI working group on subgroup analysis

Subgroup by treatment interaction assessments are routinely performed when analysing clinical trials and are particularly important for phase 3 trials where the results may affect regulatory labelling. Interpretation of such interactions is particularly difficult, as on one hand the subgroup finding can be due to chance, but equally such analyses are known to have a low chance of detecting differential treatment effects across subgroup levels, so may overlook important differences in therapeutic efficacy. EMA have therefore issued draft guidance on the use of subgroup analyses in this setting. Although this guidance provided clear proposals on the importance of pre‐specification of likely subgroup effects and how to use this when interpreting trial results, it is less clear which analysis methods would be reasonable, and how to interpret apparent subgroup effects in terms of whether further evaluation or action is necessary. A PSI/EFSPI Working Group has therefore been investigating a focused set of analysis approaches to assess treatment effect heterogeneity across subgroups in confirmatory clinical trials that take account of the number of subgroups explored and also investigating the ability of each method to detect such subgroup heterogeneity. This evaluation has shown that the plotting of standardised effects, bias‐adjusted bootstrapping method and SIDES method all perform more favourably than traditional approaches such as investigating all subgroup‐by‐treatment interactions individually or applying a global test of interaction. Therefore, these approaches should be considered to aid interpretation and provide context for observed results from subgroup analyses conducted for phase 3 clinical trials.     

Parental socialization of positive affect,adolescent positive affect regulation,and adolescent girls’ depression in India

An emerging body of research shows that parental socialization of positive affect (PA) is implicated in youth functioning, although most evidence comes from Western countries. In this study, focusing on adolescent girls in India, we examined associations among reports of parents’ responses to adolescent PA, adolescent PA regulation, and adolescent depression. A total of 238 adolescent girls (13–18 years) and one of their parents (54% mothers) were recruited. Participants completed questionnaires at the beginning of the school year (time 1) and five months later (time 2). At the bivariate level, parents’ dampening and adolescent girls’ dampening responses were each associated concurrently with adolescent depression at time 1. However, there were no significant direct associations between time 1 parents’ dampening or enhancing responses and time 2 adolescent girls’ depression (after controlling for time 1 depression). Using half‐longitudinal models, a significant indirect effect was found from parental dampening of PA to increased adolescent depression via adolescent girls’ own increased dampening. No indirect effect was found from parental enhancing to adolescent depression via adolescent girls’ increased positive rumination. These findings are the first to demonstrate the relevance of PA socialization for girls in a non‐Western culture.     

Pension policy design changes in EU countries since the mid‐1990s

Recent decades have been characterised by significant pension reforms. This article reviews this process, focusing on five policy design issues that have concerned policymakers: optimising poverty alleviation effectiveness; redefining the state's role in smoothing incomes over the life‐course; balancing contributions to benefits; adjusting the system to respond to demographic, economic and social changes; and ensuring that reforms will be long‐lasting. While the role of state pensions is diminishing, there is a growing realisation of the need to ensure that they remain adequate, reigniting interest in minimum pensions and contribution credits. The expanding role of private pensions has led governments to intervene more in their operation. Policymakers have shown interest in automatic adjustment mechanisms to bring about required economic changes. However, there is greater understanding that for these to happen, the state has to engage more with its citizens.     

Environmental Concern of Labor Union Members in the United States

The labor and environmental movements have had a complicated relationship with periods of cooperation as well as conflict, but recently there has been increasing collaboration at the national level. Whether such a trend of cooperation can be sustained will partially depend on grassroots‐level connections between the two movements. However, there has been little empirical research on the environmental attitudes of union members, which is important for understanding the potential for shared values between union members and environmental activists. This article analyzes 1993, 2000, and 2010 General Social Survey data to examine if the environmental attitudes of people in union households have changed given shifting labor–environment relations and broader political‐economic conditions. We find that union membership does not influence environmental concern in weaker economic times (1993 and 2010) but that it has a positive effect on environmental concern in stronger economic times (2000). Thus, union households are generally no less concerned about the environment than nonunion households. Therefore, strengthening connections between union members and environmental activists may be a feasible strategy for invigorating both the labor and environmental movements.