Common correlates of suicidal ideation and physical assault among male and female university students in Hong Kong

This study examined prevalence and correlates of suicidal ideation and dating partner violence in a cohort of 651 university students in social sciences classes at three universities in Hong Kong. A standard questionnaire was completed within one class period to examine the rates of occurrence of physical assault perpetration and suicidal ideation. Separate rates are presented for male and female perpetrators and for severe and overall levels of violence. The differences between subjects having suicidal ideation are compared using t tests. Logistic regression is used to predict the presence or absence of physical assault in the preceding year of reporting and suicidal ideation based on the variables such as Personal Relationship Profile, age, relationship length, and socioeconomic status. Results showed that 55% of suicidal persons had a history of violence, whereas 39% of violent people had a history of suicidal ideation. Logistic regression showed that physical assault shared a total of seven associated factors with suicidal ideation. Suicidal ideation seems to have no direct relation to physical and sexual assault, but they do share some common associated factors that are essential for the development of suicide prevention.     

Principled leveraging of external data in the evaluation of diagnostic devices via the propensity score-integrated composite likelihood approach

In the area of diagnostics, it is common practice to leverage external data to augment a traditional study of diagnostic accuracy consisting of prospectively enrolled subjects to potentially reduce the time and/or cost needed for the performance evaluation of an investigational diagnostic device. However, the statistical methods currently being used for such leveraging may not clearly separate study design and outcome data analysis, and they may not adequately address possible bias due to differences in clinically relevant characteristics between the subjects constituting the traditional study and those constituting the external data. This paper is intended to draw attention in the field of diagnostics to the recently developed propensity score-integrated composite likelihood approach, which originally focused on therapeutic medical products. This approach applies the outcome-free principle to separate study design and outcome data analysis and can mitigate bias due to imbalance in covariates, thereby increasing the interpretability of study results. While this approach was conceived as a statistical tool for the design and analysis of clinical studies for therapeutic medical products, here, we will show how it can also be applied to the evaluation of sensitivity and specificity of an investigational diagnostic device leveraging external data. We consider two common scenarios for the design of a traditional diagnostic device study consisting of prospectively enrolled subjects, which is to be augmented by external data. The reader will be taken through the process of implementing this approach step-by-step following the outcome-free principle that preserves study integrity.     

Change point-cure models with application to estimating the change-point effect of age of diagnosis among prostate cancer patients

Previous research on prostate cancer survival trends in the United States National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database has indicated a potential change-point in the age of diagnosis of prostate cancer around age 50. Identifying a change-point value in prostate cancer survival and cure could have important policy and health care management implications. Statistical analysis of this data has to address two complicating features: (1) change-point models are not smooth functions and so present computational and theoretical difficulties; and (2) models for prostate cancer survival need to account for the fact that many men diagnosed with prostate cancer can be effectively cured of their disease with early treatment. We develop a cure survival model that allows for change-point effects in covariates to investigate a potential change-point in the age of diagnosis of prostate cancer. Our results do not indicate that age under 50 is associated with increased hazard of death from prostate cancer.     

Communicating supply chain risks and mitigation strategies: a comprehensive framework

Concerning the increasing emphasis on risk management in this uncertain global environment, there is an urgent demand for practical decision support tools that support supply chain risk communication and management. This research proposes an integrated framework that takes explicit account of multiple types of risk in aiding decision-making, and compares and ranks alternative risk mitigation strategies individually and collectively in indicator basis using fuzzy set theory and multiple criteria decision analysis methods. Through an illustrative case, the research demonstrates that the proposed framework provides a holistic view of supply chain risks and enables firms to foresee, spot and respond to the exposed risks in an effective and efficient manner.     

Modelling population-based cancer survival trends using join point models for grouped survival data

Summary.  In the USA cancer as a whole is the second leading cause of death and a major burden to health care; thus medical progress against cancer is a major public health goal. There are many individual studies to suggest that cancer treatment breakthroughs and early diagnosis have significantly improved the prognosis of cancer patients. To understand better the relationship between medical improvements and the survival experience for the patient population at large, it is useful to evaluate cancer survival trends on the population level, e.g. to find out when and how much the cancer survival rates changed. We analyse population-based grouped cancer survival data by incorporating join points into the survival models. A join point survival model facilitates the identification of trends with significant change-points in cancer survival, when related to cancer treatments or interventions. The Bayesian information criterion is used to select the number of join points. The performance of the join point survival models is evaluated with respect to cancer prognosis, join point locations, annual percentage changes in death rates by year of diagnosis and sample sizes through intensive simulation studies. The model is then applied to grouped relative survival data for several major cancer sites from the 'Surveillance, epidemiology and end results' programme of the National Cancer Institute. The change-points in the survival trends for several major cancer sites are identified and the potential driving forces behind such change-points are discussed.     

On robust empirical bayes analysis of means and variances from stratified samples

Ghosh and Lahiri (1987a,b) considered simultaneous estimation of several strata means and variances where each stratum contains a finite number of elements, under the assumption that the posterior expectation of any stratum mean is a linear function of the sample observations - the so called“posterior linearity” property. In this paper we extend their result by retaining the “posterior linearity“ property of each stratum mean but allowing the superpopulation model whose mean as well as the variance-covariance structure changes from stratum to stratum. The performance of the proposed empirical Bayes estimators are found to be satisfactory both in terms of “asymptotic optimality” (Robbins (1955)) and “relative savings loss” (Efron and Morris (1973)).     

Big-data analytics framework for incorporating smallholders in sustainable palm oil production

Abstract

This paper aims to address the constraints faced in incorporating smallholders in sustainable palm oil production. There exists literature that acknowledges the need for incorporating smallholders in the production of sustainable palm oil but none has proposed a solution beyond ‘Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil’ (RSPO) certification. In the current business scenario, several organizations are struggling to procure RSPO certified palm oil even after committing huge resources. RSPO, though a good first step, has a major process and capacity constraints resulting in long processing times, delays, and lack of traceability for the customers. This paper proposes a Big Data Analytics framework enabled by cutting-edge technologies to incorporate smallholders in the RSPO certification process. The data used was collected through farm visits, stakeholder meetings, key stakeholder interviews, and, secondary sources. The proposed framework not only addresses the limitation of the current certification process but also converts it from being punitive to preventive. The outcomes of this research will be extremely useful for all the stakeholders in the palm oil supply chain.     

Process capability index for bivariate exponentially distributed quality characteristics and its sampling properties

In this paper, a process capability index for two correlated quality characteristics jointly following bivariate exponential distribution has been proposed. The expectation and sampling variance of the estimated index have been derived. Choice of the natural process interval corresponding to a specified coverage probability has been discussed.