A Latent Process Model for Temporal Extremes

This paper presents a hierarchical approach to modelling extremes of a stationary time series. The procedure comprises two stages. In the first stage, exceedances over a high threshold are modelled through a generalized Pareto distribution, which is represented as a mixture of an exponential variable with a Gamma distributed rate parameter. In the second stage, a latent Gamma process is embedded inside the exponential distribution in order to induce temporal dependence among exceedances. Unlike other hierarchical extreme‐value models, this version has marginal distributions that belong to the generalized Pareto family, so that the classical extreme‐value paradigm is respected. In addition, analytical developments show that different choices of the underlying Gamma process can lead to different degrees of temporal dependence of extremes, including asymptotic independence. The model is tested through a simulation study in a Markov chain setting and used for the analysis of two datasets, one environmental and one financial. In both cases, a good flexibility in capturing different types of tail behaviour is obtained.     

博洛尼亚进程中的意大利大学改革

对于欧洲大学而言,“博洛尼亚进程”是近年来居于首位的大事件。作为最早的倡导国和参与国之一,意大利积极融入博洛尼亚进程,并以此为契机改革弊端日益呈现的大学体制。改革既有历史的原因,也是社会经济发展的必然结果。1 861年意大利统一以来,意大利大学呈现出从精英到大众, 从分权到集权的特征。20世纪80年代以来的改革主要围绕“赋予大学更多自主权”和“提升大学质量”展开。1 999年《捷其诺条例》的颁布对意大利大学改革具有里程碑的意义。之后,意大利大学进行了大刀阔斧的改革 :建立基于“欧洲学分互认体系”的学分制,重置本科课程,引入“3+2”学位体系,引入“Y”体系,颁发文凭补充文件等。这些改革对意大利大学体制产生了深远的影响。     

Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy

Abstract. This paper analyses whether active labour market policies (ALMPs) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the possible effects of active labour market policies on labour force dynamics. The econometric methodologies implemented are the generalized method of moment (GMM) and the panel vector autoregression (P‐VAR). The evidence yielded by the GMM models suggests that the effects of different ALMPs on unemployment are dissimilar across the Italian regions. It follows that some active programmes are likely to have a greater effect in the South than in the North. The results of the P‐VAR models estimated are synthesized by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition. The impulse response analysis suggests that an increase in total ALMP gives rise to: (i) a decrease in the unemployment rate; and (ii) a significant increase in labour force participation. More interestingly, the results obtained from the error variance decomposition analysis show that unemployment movements are not driven by shocks in the ALMPs and that, especially in the northern regions, atypical contracts shocks account for a substantial portion of unemployment dynamics.     

An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic

In this study, we propose a time-dependent susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases.     

Alien plant species do have a clear preference for different land uses within urban environments

Since neophytes can become invasive in the future, untangling their ecological preferences is of paramount importance, especially in urban areas where they represent a substantial proportion of the local flora. Studies exploring alien species assemblages in urban environments are however scarce. This study aims to unravel alien plant species preferences for five urban land uses (densely built-up areas, open built-up areas, industrial areas, broadleaved urban forests, and agricultural areas and small landscape elements). We took the city of Brussels as a model, in which we recorded all vascular species growing spontaneously in grid cells of 1 km². We tested two different ways of classifying the 1-km² cells: (1) We simply associated each cell with its dominant land cover; (2) We used a fuzzy approach for which the degree of association of a given cell to a given land cover depended on the proportion of that land cover within the cell. For both classification methods, we calculated the indicator species of the resulting land cover types based on alien species only. The crisp and fuzzy classifications identified 33 and 49 species, respectively, with a clear preference for some urban land use types (from a total of 129 alien plant species analyzed). Results showed that urban land use types having apparently similar environmental conditions can actually harbor different neophyte assemblages. Fine-tuning the categorization of urban environments in future ecological studies is therefore important for understanding spatial patterns of alien species occurrence.     

Culminating events and time working together in top management teams: Insights from private equity

In some managerial contexts, performance is measured by the results of a rare event that is itself the culmination of a long and ongoing process of daily decision making. In the private equity (PE) industry, for example, a firm makes a limited number of investments throughout its life. However, selecting these few investments requires the firm to engage in a large number of decision-making activities to evaluate the much larger array of potential investments. This raises the interesting possibility that the performance of each culminating event is not a function of the number of previously completed tasks, as it has been conceived previously, but is in fact a function of the accumulation of daily decision making that may or may not culminate in actual buyouts. To understand performance drivers in this and similar contexts, we examine and test the performance effect of the time that members of a PE top management team (TMT) spend working together to evaluate potential investments, and untangle this effect from the number of investments the TMT has bought and sold previously. Our data reveal a U-shaped relationship between time working together (TWT) and buyout performance, and a moderation effect of TMT heterogeneity and TMT support staff size. These findings extend our knowledge of executive decision making in PE firms, and in all managerial contexts where rare decision events are the culmination of an extended process of daily decision making.     

Bidirectional relations among empathy‐related traits,prosocial moral reasoning,and prosocial behaviors

This study examined the longitudinal links among empathic concern, perspective taking, prosocial moral reasoning, and prosocial behaviors. Four hundred and seventeen adolescents (225 girls; M_age = 14.70 years) from public schools in Spain completed measures of those constructs in three successive years. Path analyses showed support for the notion that empathic concern and prosocial moral reasoning accounted for the relations between perspective taking in earlier adolescence and later altruistic and public forms of helping. Moreover, there was support for a reverse causal model such that empathic concern and prosocial moral reasoning mediated the relations between altruistic (but not public) helping behaviors in earlier adolescence and later perspective taking. The implications for cognitive developmental and social cognitive theories of prosocial development were discussed.     

Precarity in the Nonprofit Employment Services Sector

Drawing on interview and focus group data, this article explores research undertaken as part of a larger research project exploring precarity in the nonprofit employment services sector in a mid‐sized Canadian city. We critically survey major legislative changes to Canadian employment and income security policies and programs, including the restructuring of work and labor relations, growth of performance‐based contracting‐out, erosion of intergovernmental transfers, worker stress, and emotional tolls. Our study's results demonstrate how employment precarity in the nonprofit employment services sector is amplified by top‐down and centralized relationships with funding partners and policymaking divorced from the employment experiences of frontline staff. We make the case that it is important to work against rising workplace precarity to strengthen organizational and workplace conditions, as well as build environments more supportive of optimal employment support services. En se fondant sur des entretiens et des données découlant de groupes témoins, cet article présente des explorations entreprises dans une recherche plus large étudiant la précarité dans le secteur des emplois de service dans une ville canadienne de taille moyenne. Nous faisons une revue critique de changements importants intervenus dans la législation portant sur l'emploi au Canada et les politiques et programmes de la sécurité du revenu, incluant la restructuration du travail et des relations de travail, l'augmentation de la privatisation se fondant sur la performance, la diminution des transferts intergouvernementaux, le stress au travail et les conséquences émotionnelles. Les résultats de notre recherche démontrent comment la précarité de l'emploi dans les secteurs des services à but non lucratif est amplifiée par des relations allant du haut vers le bas et centralisée avec des partenaires et des politiques séparés de l'expérience des travailleurs sur le terrain. Nous démontrons qu'il est important de travailler contre la précarisation en renforçant les conditions organisationnelles et de travail, tout en construisant des environnements favorisant une offre de services de l'emploi optimaux.     

The Role of Child Emotional Responsiveness and Maternal Negative Emotion Expression in Children's Coping Strategy Use

This study examined the additive and interactive effects of children's trait vicarious emotional responsiveness and maternal negative emotion expression on children's use of coping strategies. Ninety‐five children (mean age = 5.87 years) and their mothers and teachers participated in the study. The mothers reported on their own negative emotion expression and the children's empathic concern and personal distress tendencies. The mothers and teachers reported on the children's use of avoidant, support‐seeking, and aggressive‐venting coping strategies. Empathic concern was positively associated with the children's use of support seeking and negatively associated with the children's use of aggressive venting, whereas personal distress showed the opposite pattern of associations. Maternal negative emotion expression moderated some associations between the children's emotional responsiveness and coping. These findings support the hypothesis that children's tendencies to experience empathic concern or personal distress indicate functionally distinct styles of emotional arousal that may have broader consequences for socially competent behavior in response to normative stressors.