A Cause-of-Death Decomposition of Young Adult Excess Mortality

We propose a method to decompose the young adult mortality hump by cause of death. This method is based on a flexible shape decomposition of mortality rates that separates cause-of-death contributions to the hump from senescent mortality. We apply the method to U.S. males and females from 1959 to 2015. Results show divergence between time trends of hump and observed deaths, both for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The study of the hump shape reveals age, period, and cohort effects, suggesting that it is formed by a complex combination of different forces of biological and socioeconomic nature. Male and female humps share some traits in all-cause shape and trend, but they also differ by their overall magnitude and cause-specific contributions. Notably, among males, the contributions of traffic and other accidents were progressively replaced by those of suicides, homicides, and poisonings; among females, traffic accidents remained the major contributor to the hump.     

Middle Childhood Feelings Toward Mothers: Predictions From Maternal Directiveness at the Age of Two and Respect for Autonomy Currently

The goals of this study were to examine (1) stability of maternal directiveness during interactions with their children from toddlerhood to late middle childhood, (2) direct and mediated relations between mothers' directiveness when children were two years old, mothers' respect for autonomy and children's positivity and negativity toward their mothers when children were in late middle childhood, and (3) differences in these paths by ethnoracial group. Participants included 876 European‐American, 789 African‐American, and 411 Mexican‐American mothers and their children from the Early Head Start Research and Evaluation Project. Maternal respect for autonomy at Time 2 partially mediated an association between Time 1 directiveness and observed child positivity toward mothers at Time 2. There was also a direct inverse link between Time 1 maternal directiveness and children's observed positivity toward mothers at Time 2. Relations were similar across ethnoracial groups and for boys and girls. The discussion focuses on heterotypic stability in directive parenting and its implications for children's feelings toward their mothers.     

Dynamic generalized linear models with application to environmental epidemiology

Summary. We propose modelling short-term pollutant exposure effects on health by using dynamic generalized linear models. The time series of count data are modelled by a Poisson distribution having mean driven by a latent Markov process; estimation is performed by the extended Kalman filter and smoother. This modelling strategy allows us to take into account possible overdispersion and time-varying effects of the covariates. These ideas are illustrated by reanalysing data on the relationship between daily non-accidental deaths and air pollution in the city of Birmingham, Alabama.     

Moral Development in Adolescence

Themes in the papers in this special issue of the JRA on moral development are identified. We discuss the intersection of moral development research with policy concerns, the distinctive qualities of moral life in adolescence that warrant investigation, the multiple connotations of “moral,” the methods typical of moral development research, and the influences that shape adolescent moral development. Suggestions are made for new methods and new directions in the study of moral development.     

Performance of adaptive estimators in slowly varying parameter models

This paper analyzes the MSE of the exponentially weighted least squares (EWLS) estimator in dynamic regression models with time-varying parameters. Under the assumption of differentiable parameter functions, it is derived an asymptotic expression which is the sum of a stationary and of an evolutionary component. The validity of the analytical expression is illustrated with simulation experiments, and its usefulness in designing the exponential discounting factor is illustrated on a real case-study. The practical finding is similar to the plug-in bandwidth selection in nonparametric smoothers.