Ranked-Weighted Utilities and Qualitative Convolution

For gambles—non-numerical consequences attached to uncertain chance events—analogues are proposed for the sum of independent random variables and their convolution. Joint receipt of gambles is the analogue of the sum of random variables. Because it has no unique expansion as a first-order gamble analogous to convolution, a definition of qualitative convolution is proposed. Assuming ranked, weighted-utility representations (RWU) over gains (and, separately, over losses, but not mixtures of both), conditions are given for the equivalence of joint receipt, qualitative convolution, and a utility expression like expected value. As background, some properties of RWU are developed.     

Drug use and mental well being among a sample of undergraduate and graduate college students.

Stress related disorders in college students are widespread and largely preventable. Students do not have the preventative skills necessary to manage stress in their lives and, because of the inability to cope, students may turn to alcohol and drugs to alleviate the pressures they are experiencing. The purpose of this study was to describe the association between stress and alcohol and drug use. A total of 772 undergraduate and graduate students from a small, elite, private university were randomly selected from 4000 students to complete two anonymous questionnaires. The Core Alcohol and Drug Survey identified the frequency and consequences of alcohol and drug use, and the General-Well Being Schedule was used to assess subjective well being and mental health status. The results of this study revealed that, for this sample of students, health behaviors such as using drugs recreationally and drinking alcohol played an associative role with general well being. A significant relationship was also found between student participation in intramural or club sports and positive mental well being.     

DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY

We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enables systematic variation in informational asymmetry, and in ordering of actions. Data from 77 subjects, each of whom makes 30 binary decisions, indicate that automated merging raises the fraction of rational choices from around 40% to over 80%. Other features examined have much less impact, indicating the importance of a Bayesian updating failure. (JEL C91, D02, D81, D83)     

DFID governance programming in Nigeria: What difference has thinking and working politically made in practice?

The UK Department for International Development's country office in Nigeria (DFID Nigeria) has gradually adopted a thinking and working politically (TWP) approach in its governance programming. The initial focus on strengthening analysis has progressively been linked to discussion about the country and programme strategy, as well as programme‐management practices. Important lessons can be learned from this experience on how the TWP approach can be applied in practice. The article addresses three research questions: (1) To what extent have DFID Nigeria and its governance programmes adopted a TWP approach? (2) How has the TWP approach influenced the design and delivery of programming? (3) Has the application of the TWP approach enhanced the results of the DFID governance programming? Using project documentation and wider theoretical literature, but mainly relying on extensive participant observation within DFID Nigeria programmes, the article uses a historical perspective to outline how the TWP approach has been applied in Nigeria over 15 years of programme design, delivery, lesson‐learning and refinement . Published evaluation reports are used to provide evidence of programme results. DFID Nigeria and its programmes have progressively adopted TWP principles. This has led to clear changes in country strategy and programme design, as well as programme‐management practices. There is some evidence that the adoption of these principles has enhanced the results of DFID Nigeria programmes. By focusing on experimentation and “small bets,” TWP has proven relatively successful in generating and supporting ‘islands of effectiveness,’ but has had more limited impact in terms of generating more systemic, transformational change. The results obtained in Nigeria using the TWP approach have depended not only on Nigeria's political economy but also on the political economy of the development agency and donor country. DFID Nigeria's ability to engage in critical self‐reflection and to create an authorizing environment for risk‐taking have been vital to create enabling conditions for the TWP approach. However, other aspects of DFID and the UK's political economy are creating constraints that limit the prospects to go further and to go deeper in adopting the principles of TWP.     

Making Development Assistance More Effective Through Using Political‐economy Analysis: What Has Been Done and What Have We Learned?

Politics often explains where development assistance has been effective and where it has not. Yet, until the 2000s there has been little focus by development agencies on political issues. This has recently begun to change with political‐economy analysis (PEA) now being more systematically used by development agencies to understand the real world. Nigeria and Bangladesh are two positive examples. Much remains to be done in these countries and more widely, to ensure stronger uptake of PEA. On the supply side this includes getting the ‘product’ right, and better communicating the message. On the demand side, there is a need to take more account of the incentives facing development agencies and to gather more systematic evidence on the operational impact of PEA to date.     

Explaining Family Change and Variation: Challenges for Family Demographers

Twenty years ago, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) issued a request for proposals that resulted in the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), a unique survey valuable to a wide range of family scholars. This paper describes the efforts of an interdisciplinary group of family demographers to build on the progress enabled by the NSFH and many other theoretical and methodological innovations. Our work, also supported by NICHD, will develop plans for research and data collection to address the central question of what causes family change and variation. We outline the group's initial assessments of orienting frameworks, key aspects of family life to study, and theoretical and methodological challenges for research on family change. Finally, we invite family scholars to follow our progress and to help develop this shared public good.