Web of Deception: Misinformation on the Internet

Abstract

“Serials Spoken Here” has reports on a symposium on “The Transition to Open Access Scholarship” held at the University at Albany, New York, and the 2004 North Carolina Serials Conference, both held in April 2004.     

Representation,Propagation, and Decision Issues in Risk Analysis Under Incomplete Probabilistic Information

This article tries to clarify the potential role to be played by uncertainty theories such as imprecise probabilities, random sets, and possibility theory in the risk analysis process. Instead of opposing an objective bounding analysis, where only statistically founded probability distributions are taken into account, to the full‐fledged probabilistic approach, exploiting expert subjective judgment, we advocate the idea that both analyses are useful and should be articulated with one another. Moreover, the idea that risk analysis under incomplete information is purely objective is misconceived. The use of uncertainty theories cannot be reduced to a choice between probability distributions and intervals. Indeed, they offer representation tools that are more expressive than each of the latter approaches and can capture expert judgments while being faithful to their limited precision. Consequences of this thesis are examined for uncertainty elicitation, propagation, and at the decision‐making step.     

Bayesian discrete latent spatial modeling of crack initiation in orthopaedic hip replacement bone cement

In this paper, we propose a spatial model for the initiation of cracks in the bone cement of hip replacement specimens. The failure of hip replacements can be attributed mainly to damage accumulation, consisting of crack initiation and growth, occurring in the cement mantle that interlocks the hip prosthesis and the femur bone. Since crack initiation is an important factor in determining the lifetime of a replacement, the understanding of the reasons for crack initiation is vital in attempting to prolong the life of the hip replacement. The data consist of crack location coordinates from five laboratory experimental models, together with stress measurements. It is known that stress plays a major role in the initiation of cracks, and it is also known that other unmeasurable factors such as air bubbles (pores) in the cement mantle are also influential. We propose an identity-link spatial Poisson regression model for the counts of cracks in discrete regions of the cement, incorporating both the measured (stress), and through a latent process, any unmeasured factors (possibly pores) that may be influential. All analysis is carried out in a Bayesian framework, allowing for the inclusion of prior information obtained from engineers, and parameter estimation for the model is done via Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.     

Comparing the Lifestyles of Victims,Offenders, and Victim-Offenders: A Routine Activity Theory Assessment of Similarities and Differences for Criminal Incident Participants

Abstract

Drawing on routine activity theory, this paper examines a sample of college students involved in criminal assault to assess whether victims, offenders, and those who are both victims and offenders show similarities on demographic, social activity, neighborhood, exposure, illegal activities, and alcohol and drug use variables. This research tests previous claims that criminal victims and offenders have numerous shared characteristics and behaviors. For all three groups a wide range of sophisticated measures of lifestyle are used to predict the likelihood of involvement in criminal incidents of assault. Victimization risks are primarily explained by indicators of individuals' exposure to offenders. Likelihood of offending is most usefully explained by demographics and participation in other illegal behaviors. Being both a victim and offender of assault is explained by a more complex set of indicators, encompassing a wide range of factors. Based on these results it appears that, for the crime of assault, victims, offenders, and victim-offenders are three distinct groups, identifiable by varying lifestyle measures. Results provide moderate support for routine activity theory and strongly support the need for refined measures of lifestyle when assessing criminal incident involvement.     

“Hookups”: Characteristics and correlates of college students' spontaneous and anonymous sexual experiences

This study focused on a specific risky practice common among contemporary college students: the hookup. Hookups are defined as a sexual encounter which may or may not include sexual intercourse, usually occurring on only one occasion between two people who are strangers or brief acquaintances. The aim of this study was to determine the relative importance of a variety of social and psychological predictors in understanding differences among undergraduate students who had never hooked up, those who had hooked up without sexual intercourse, and those who had hooked up with sexual intercourse. Analyses revealed that, as predicted, social, individual, and relational psychological variables helped to explain the variance among college students' varied hookup experiences. By examining the full range of sexual involvement characteristic of the casual sexual phenomenon of hooking up within a multivariate model, we were able to achieve a more differentiated understanding of college students' casual sexual experimentation.     

Lionel Smith in Barbados, 1833–1836: imperialist and abolitionist rhetoric in emancipation-era Caribbean governance

After 20 years of service in the British Army in India, Sir Lionel Smith, KCB (1777–1842) was appointed Governor of Barbados and Governor General of the Windward Islands in order to enact the abolition of slavery in the West Indies. During his three-year tenure, Smith relied on two major rhetorical strategies to advocate for the rights of free Afro-Barbadians and enslaved/apprenticed people. In general, Smith invoked utilitarian arguments, derived from his experience in India, when presenting free Afro-Barbadian men’s demands for equal voting rights, but also resorted to a more humanitarian mode, characteristic of abolitionist rhetoric, when arguing for judicial system reforms that would benefit enslaved and apprenticed people. This essay analyzes the ways in which Smith’s positions resonated with or diverged from those of the Colonial Office, and from those of Barbadian people of color, based on correspondence with the Colonial Office, including two documents written by free men of color, and one by an apprentice. Although Smith was eager to apply the British colonial policy he experienced in India to the impending social changes in the West Indies, the Colonial Office was not as willing to draw these parallels, responding more enthusiastically to Smith’s use of abolitionist rhetoric.     

Maternal Employment,Community Contexts,and the Child‐Care Arrangements of Diverse Groups

Integrating family and child data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Birth Cohort with contextual data from the census, this study examined associations among maternal employment, aspects of communities related to child‐care supply and demand, and the early care and education arrangements of 4 year olds in Mexican‐origin, Black, and White families. Children with employed mothers were more likely to be in informal care arrangements than in early childhood education, regardless of racial/ethnic background. For children in Mexican‐origin families, selection into informal care over early childhood education was more likely in zip codes with greater demand for care as measured by higher female employment. Utilization of parent care versus early childhood education was also more likely for children in Mexican‐origin and Black families in zip codes with higher female employment. Constraints associated with maternal employment thus hindered children from enrolling in early childhood education, and community contexts posed challenges for some groups.     

Interdisciplinary Applications: Providing a Past for “Bodies That Matter”: Judith Butler's Impact on the Archaeology of Gender

Recent archeological work on gender and sexuality has drawn on Judith Butler's discussions of abjection and gender performance in ways that promise to contribute to explicating these concepts. Representations of the past have the potential to lend the illusion of time depth, and thus cultural legitimacy, to contemporary social phenomena. Initially, feminist scholarship in archaeology did not critically interrogate gender. Consequently, it could be used to reinforce static, natural, and binary representations of gender in reconstructions of the past and their use in conservative ways in the present. Recently, some archaeologists have begun to focus on the regulatory modes through which gender was produced and reproduced in prehistoric communities. Archaeological work has been especially successful in examining the material dimensions of gender performance, thus addressing one of the repeated criticisms of this concept. The authors of this essay provide an overview of this recent archaeological writing with an emphasis on the ways it draws on, critiques, and extends the work of Judith Butler.     

Sociological Factors Affecting Agricultural Price Risk Management in Australia*

Abstract The highly volatile auction system in Australia accounts for 85 percent of ex‐farm wool sales, with the remainder sold by forward contract, futures, and other hedging methods. In this article, against the background of an extensive literature on price risk strategies, we investigate title behavioral factors associated with producers' adoption of price risk‐management strategies (specifically futures and forward contracts) for selling wool. This research presents a behavioral model based on Diffusion of Innovations, the Theory of Reasoned Action, and the Theory of Planned Behavior. We found that the auction system is used as a price risk‐management tool because other selling methods are considered more risky. We also report on a curious relationship between risk and complexity in terms of wool producers' intentions to use forward contracts. We explored sociological factors in conjunction with focus‐group data in an attempt to understand this relationship. This exercise yielded some interesting findings on the impact that trust, habit, social cohesion, and networks have on decision making in the rural community. The significance of this article lies in its application of core sociological theory in a new research context: the Australian wool industry.     

Divorce and the Divine: The Role of Spirituality in Adjustment to Divorce

This study examined the role of three spiritual responses to divorce for psychological adjustment: appraising the event as a sacred loss/desecration, engaging in adaptive spiritual coping, and experiencing spiritual struggles. A sample of 100 adults (55% female) was recruited through public divorce records. Most appraised their divorce as a sacred loss/desecration (74%), experienced spiritual struggles (78%), and engaged in adaptive spiritual coping (88%). Appraisals of sacred loss/desecration and spiritual struggles were tied to higher levels of depression. Adaptive spiritual coping was tied to greater posttraumatic growth. Spiritual coping and struggles each contributed uniquely to adjustment beyond parallel forms of nonspiritual coping and struggles and mediated links between viewing the divorce as a sacred loss/desecration and depression.