East Asian childbearing patterns and policy developments

Childbearing behavior in East Asian countries has changed rapidly during the past half century from an average of five to seven children per family, to replacement-level fertility, and subsequently to unprecedentedly low levels, the lowest in the world. This article analyzes fertility trends in Hong Kong, Japan, singapore, south Korea, and Taiwan using cohort fertility data and methods, then examines social and economic causes of the childbearing trends, and surveys policies pursued to reverse the fertility trends. Postponement of childbearing started in the 1970s with continuously fewer delayed births being "recuperated," which resulted in ultra-low fertility. A rapid expansion of education and employment among women in a patriarchal environment has generated a stark dilemma for women who would like to combine childbearing with a career. Policy responses have been slow, with a more serious attempt to address issues in recent years. Thus far public and private institutions are not devoting sufficient attention to generating broad social change supportive of parenting.     

The social and demographic impact of the Southeast Asian Crisis of 1997–99

When an unexpected financial crisis overtook Southeast Asia in 1997 planners and policymakers feared that the economic difficulties would unwind two decades of remarkable economic and social development. Newspaper headlines spoke of massive increases in poverty, unemployment and malnutrition, and it was speculated that family planning programs would collapse and fertility would rise dramatically. Infant and child mortality and maternal mortality were also expected to increase. This paper briefly reviews the onset of the financial crisis as a background for assessing whether speculations about die demographic and social effects tallied with reality. It is found that these effects were neither as dramatic nor as easy to monitor as some of the public debate implied. The general lesson is that the most serious social and demographic problems were not so much the products of crisis as embedded in chronic weaknesses that had become entrenched in times of economic growth. The crisis exposed these weaknesses.     

斯伦贝谢对中国的兴趣

中国的 SIM 卡和银行卡的增长2001年有望分别达到25%和50%。“中国是一个大市场,是一个很有潜力的市场,只要合理,我们就不断会在中国投资。”     

Bayesian analysis of a general growth curve model with predictions using power transformations and AR(1) autoregressive dependence

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian analysis of the unbalanced (general) growth curve model with AR(1) autoregressive dependence, while applying the Box-Cox power transformations. We propose exact, simple and Markov chain Monte Carlo approximate parameter estimation and prediction of future values. Numerical results are illustrated with real and simulated data.     

‘A load too heavy’: Critical reflections on the child labor problem in Africa's small-scale mining sector

This paper provides an extended analysis of the child labor problem in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector, focusing specifically on the situation in sub-Saharan Africa. In recent years, the issue of child labor in ASM has garnered significant attention from the International Labor Organization (ILO), which has been particularly active in raising public awareness of the problem; and, has proceeded to implement policies and collaborative project work aimed at curtailing children's participation in ASM activities in a number of African countries. The analysis concludes with a critical appraisal of an ILO project recently launched in the Talensi–Nabdam District in the Upper East Region of Ghana, which sheds light on how the child labor problem is being tackled in practice in ASM communities in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Reporting Volunteer Labour at the Organizational Level: A Study of Canadian Nonprofits

Volunteer contributions in the production of services are an important resource internationally. However, few countries include volunteer contributions in their national accounts, even though many encourage their populations to engage in volunteering. At the organizational level, many nonprofit organizations using volunteers often limit their input to a footnote in annual reports acknowledging their contribution; few estimate their value in financial terms. As a result, their financial accounts lack information upon which to base decisions affecting the organizations and the communities they serve. Additional information is required to assess the impact of volunteers in individual nonprofits as well as the sector as a whole. This study focuses on Canada, one of the few countries that include volunteers in the national accounts, to examine to what extent nonprofit organizations estimate a financial value for these contributions and include this in their financial statements. This paper reports the results of an online survey of 661 nonprofits from across Canada. In order to understand why some organizations keep records for volunteer contributions and quantify them, two sets of explanatory factors are explored: organizational characteristics and the attitude of the executive director. We find larger organizations were more likely to engage in record keeping and estimating volunteer value, as were organizations with a relatively large group of volunteers and volunteer programs. The attitude of the executive director is important in determining which organizations engage in these practices.     

The selection of zero-non-zero patterned cointegrating vectors in error-correction modelling

An effective and efficient search algorithm has been developed to select from an 1(1) system zero-non-zero patterned cointegrating and loading vectors in a subset VECM, B^q(l)y(t-1) + B^q-1 (L)Ay(t) = ε( t ) , where the long term impact matrix Bq(l) contains zero entries. The algorithm can be applied to higher order integrated systems. The Finnish money-output model presented by Johansen and Juselius (1990) and the United States balanced growth model presented by King, Plosser, Stock and Watson (1991) are used to demonstrate the usefulness of this algorithm in examining the cointegrating relationships in vector time series.     

Regression Modelling of Disease Risk in Relation to Point Sources

We describe a class of models for the investigation of possible raised risk of disease around putative sources of environmental pollution. An adaptation of the point process method suggested by Diggle and Rowlingson is presented, allowing the use of routinely available aggregated data and incorporating the more general distance–risk model suggested by Elliott and co-workers. An application to data on cancers of the stomach around municipal solid waste incinerators is presented.