Just Who Are You Calling Risk Averse?

This paper estimates individual risk preferences based upon data that are generated by the same individuals acting in different institutions. The results show that the (estimated) numerical values of individuals' implied risk parameters are not stable within individuals across institutions. Furthermore, the ranking across subjects of the numerical values of individuals' implied risk parameters is not preserved across institutions.     

Development,inequality, health care,and mortality at the older ages: a cross-national analysis

We examine mortality at ages 50 and above in female populations of 38 countries and control for variation in quality of the mortality data. We find that economic development, economic distributional inequality, and basic primary health care have independent cross-national effects on cause of death structures and that these effects are not uniform across the age intervals of interest. As improvements occur in level of living and heath care, age-specific death rates decline except at the oldest ages, at which point they may increase. Our results are interpreted in terms of their relevance for mortality research, theory, and policy.     

Culture in the transitions to modernity: seven pillars of a new research agenda

How did cultural dynamics help bring about the societies we now recognize as modern? This article constructs seven distinct models for how structures of signification and social meaning participated in the transitions to modernity in the West and, in some of the models, across the globe. Our models address: (1) the spread, via imitation, of modern institutions around the world (memetic replication); (2) the construal, by socio-cultural forces and by state organizations, of the modern citizen-subject (social subjectification); (3) the continual search for new meanings to replace traditional religious meaning-systems (compensatory reenchantment); (4) repeated attempts, in modern revolutions, to remake society completely, according to a utopian vision (ideological totalization); (5) the cultural origins and social consequences of scientific and humanistic worldviews (epistemic rift); (6) the gendered politics of state formation (patriarchal supercession); (7) the invention and production of race in the colonial encounter (racial recognition). We explicate the models in reverse chronological order, because in our synthesis, we argue that the original modern break results from a dynamic combination of racial recognition, patriarchal supercession, and epistemic rift; these changes set the stage for the four other processes we theorize. In addition to our synthesis, we also consider, from a more neutral perspective, the kinds of causal arguments upon which these models tend to rely, and thus explicate the analytical undergirding for the application of any of these models to empirical research on transitions to modernity. Throughout the article, we consider how these models might, and might not, mesh with other families of explanation, such as the politico-economic.     

Adolescent Pathways to Co‐Occurring Problem Behavior: The Effects of Peer Delinquency and Peer Substance Use

Delinquency and substance use are more likely to co‐occur in adolescence compared to earlier and later developmental periods. The present study examined developmental pathways to co‐occurring problem behavior from 6th to 10th grade (N = 2,002), testing how peer delinquency and substance use were linked to transitioning between abstaining, delinquency, substance use, and co‐occurring problem behavior. Developmentally, most youth transition from abstinence to delinquent behavior and then escalate to co‐occurring problem behavior. Once co‐occurring problem behavior onsets, remitting to single‐problem behavior or abstinence is unlikely. The impact of peers on problem behavior is domain‐specific when individuals transition from abstaining to a single‐problem behavior, but is more general with respect to escalation of and desistance from problem behavior.     

Evaluation of Camp Tortuga, a two week children's therapeutic day camp via goal attainment scaling and locus of control

The present study evaluated the effectiveness of a two-week therapeutic day camping experience in facilitating change in children aged 8–12 years with adjustment or behavioral problems. For each of the 42 children attending camp, three Goal Attainment Scales (GAS) were administered before camp separately to the children, parents and counselors. These scales specified individualized behavioral goals for problem areas relating to self, family, children, and group which could be realistically attainable within two weeks. Post-camp GAS follow-up showed that children, parent, and counselor groups each perceived the children as achieving significant positive change in regard to specified goals. Children were also administered a locus of control measure. The hypothesis that “internals” would be perceived as achieving significantly more positive behavioral change on the GAS than “externals” was confirmed. Discussion centered on the viability of therapeutic camping, the merits of using the GAS and the multi-informant approach, and specific therapeutic strategies indicated by the present findings.     

A tale of two tails: An alternative characterization of comparative risk

A characterization of comparative risk, parallel to but more restrictive than the Rothschild-Stiglitz (1970) characterization, is developed. As in Rothschild and Stiglitz, we develop a four-way characterization that consists of generating processes (a noise condition and generation by a sequence of special mean-preserving spreads), integral conditions, and preferences. The building blocks of this new order, Mean-preserving increases in risk about ν, where ν is any constant, are mean-preserving spreads whose centers have a nonempty intersection. If this intersection contains the mean of the distribution, the induced order, or mean-preserving increase in risk about the mean, conveys a particularly meaningful notion of an increase in risk as a buildup of the tails of the distribution.     

The Role of Heavy Drinking in the Risk of Traffic Fatalities

Recent studies have identified a "hard core" of drinking drivers who do not fit a "social" drinker profile and may require medical intervention. This article builds on these studies by quantifying the role of heavy drinking in motor vehicle fatalities. Data on male alcohol-involved fatally-injured drivers (AIFIDs) were obtained from the U.S. Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) for the years 1989–1990 (n = 8876). The AIFIDs were grouped into either a "heavy" or "light" drinking category based on drinking behaviors inferred from prior driving records and blood alcohol concentrations (BAC). The majority of male AIFIDs were between the ages of 20–39 (70%). Sixty-five percent had a BAC of 150 mg/dl or greater, and 41% had a BAC in excess of 200 mg/dl. AIFIDs with high BACs were more likely to have histories of DUI convictions and license suspensions than AIFIDs with low BACs. According to the study's criteria, 73% percent of the AIFIDs could be classified as "heavy" drinkers. There were no driving variables that differentiated the heavy and light drinker groups, indicating that heavy drinking per se is the primary factor that distinguishes the groups. Male alcohol-involved fatally injured drivers are comprised mostly of heavy drinkers who may suffer from serious drinking problems or alcoholism. Successful interventions may require medical treatment as well as punitive criminal justice policies.