Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Unterstützung dualer Karrieren im Spitzensport

The longstanding focus of elite athletes on top sports entails disadvantages hampering their later entry to the world of work. In order to successfully contribute their outstanding personality traits to a later job, athletes are thus particularly required to care for their employability. Contributing to this, the author carried out a competency balancing with top athletes. This coaching method significantly decreased the athletes’ need for self-information. Evaluation further showed indications of increased clarity and certainty of occupational goals as well as work satisfaction.     

Examining Facilitative Configurations of Entrepreneurially Oriented Growth: An Information Processing Perspective

This study examines how the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and firm growth is shaped by learning orientation in technologically sophisticated environments. We draw upon an information processing perspective that emphasizes alignment between information processing demands and support mechanisms. Using data from 116 small to medium‐sized enterprises in the Netherlands, we observe that the ability of entrepreneurial orientation to drive firm growth greatly depends on the joint consideration of technological sophistication and learning orientation. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how configurations of strategic orientations and environmental considerations work in concert to influence the efficacy of organizational entrepreneurial efforts dramatically.     

Tempered Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes

In this article, we introduce tempered Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes (TMLLP). TMLLP is represented as tempered stable subordinator delayed by a gamma process. Its probability density function and Lévy density are obtained in terms of infinite series and Mittag-Leffler function, respectively. Asymptotic forms of the tails and moments are given. A step-by-step procedure of the parameters estimation and simulation of sample paths is given. We also provide main results available for Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes (MLLP) and some extensions which are not available in a collective way in a single article. Our results generalize and complement the results available on Mittag-Leffler distribution and MLLP in several directions. Further, the asymptotic forms of the moments of the first-exit times of the TMLLP are also discussed.     

How leader role identity influences the process of leader emergence: A social network analysis

Contemporary theories on leadership development emphasize the importance of having a leader identity in building leadership skills and functioning effectively as leaders. We build on this approach by unpacking the role leader identity plays in the leader emergence process. Taking the perspective that leadership is a dynamic social process between group members, we propose a social network-based process model whereby leader role identity predicts network centrality (i.e., betweenness and indegree), which then contributes to leader emergence. We test our model using a sample of 88 cadets participating in a leadership development training course. In support of our model, cadets who possess a stronger leader role identity at the beginning of the course were more likely to emerge as leaders. However this relationship was only mediated by one form of network centrality, indegree centrality, reflecting one's ability to build relationships within one's group. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

The matching extension problem in general graphs is co-NP-complete

A simple connected graph G with 2n vertices is said to be k-extendable for an integer k with \(0<k<n\) if G contains a perfect matching and every matching of cardinality k in G is a subset of some perfect matching. Lakhal and Litzler (Inf Process Lett 65(1):11–16, 1998) discovered a polynomial algorithm that decides whether a bipartite graph is k-extendable. For general graphs, however, it has been an open problem whether there exists a polynomial algorithm. The new result presented in this paper is that the extendability problem is co-NP-complete.     

Improved mixed-integer programming models for the multiprocessor scheduling problem with communication delays

We revise existing and introduce new mixed-integer programming models for the Multiprocessor scheduling problem with communication delays. The basis for both is the identification of two major modeling strategies one of which can be considered ordering-based, and the other assignment-based. We first reveal redundancies in the encoding of feasible solutions found in present formulations and discuss how they can be avoided. For the assignment-based approach, we propose new inequalities that lead to provably stronger continuous relaxations and better performance in practice. Moreover, we derive a third, novel modeling strategy and show how to more compactly linearize assignment formulations with quadratic constraints. In a comprehensive experimental comparison of representative models that reflect the state-of-the-art in terms of strength and size, we evaluate not only running times but also the obtained lower and upper bounds on the makespan for the harder instances of a large scale benchmark set.     

Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.     

Klassen messen

The article investigates whether Austrian sociological research empirically addressed social class conceptions between 1945 and 1990. Contrary to the German reception, we find that, indeed, during the whole period scientific publications analyzed social relations and social change from a class perspective with an empirical approach. We embed this research in its historical context in order to work out the implicit explanations given concerning the existence of social inequalities. Moreover, we work out if post-World War II Austrian class analysis did link its work to the Austro-Marxist tradition that flourished between the two World Wars. The empirical focus of the article lies on scientific publications with an empirical approach to social classes and social change.     

International coopetition for innovation: Are the benefits worth the challenges?

International coopetition has rarely been studied in relation to innovation. Further exploration of effects of international coopetition, i.e. the pursuit of simultaneous cooperation and competition, on a firm’s innovation performance is especially important as such a relationship is challenging with a high propensity to fail. This observation formed the point of departure for this study, which aims to increase the understanding of the effects of international coopetition on firm innovativeness and how these effects are conditioned on the magnitude of the organizational adjustments a firm introduces. We use an unbalanced panel of 9839 firms that participated in four waves of the Swedish Community Innovation Survey between 2008 and 2014 as our empirical base. We illustrate that firms that cooperate with competitors internationally are more likely to exhibit higher propensity to introduce radical innovations, yet this effect is conditioned upon the magnitude of organizational adjustments. Overall, our study contributes to the understanding of the implications of international coopetition and what a firm needs to benefit from it.