An alternative to model selection in ordinary regression

The weaknesses of established model selection procedures based on hypothesis testing and similar criteria are discussed and an alternative based on synthetic (composite) estimation is proposed. It is developed for the problem of prediction in ordinary regression and its properties are explored by simulations for the simple regression. Extensions to a general setting are described and an example with multiple regression is analysed. Arguments are presented against using a selected model for any inferences.     

Bayesian inference for a discretely observed stochastic kinetic model

The ability to infer parameters of gene regulatory networks is emerging as a key problem in systems biology. The biochemical data are intrinsically stochastic and tend to be observed by means of discrete-time sampling systems, which are often limited in their completeness. In this paper we explore how to make Bayesian inference for the kinetic rate constants of regulatory networks, using the stochastic kinetic Lotka-Volterra system as a model. This simple model describes behaviour typical of many biochemical networks which exhibit auto-regulatory behaviour. Various MCMC algorithms are described and their performance evaluated in several data-poor scenarios. An algorithm based on an approximating process is shown to be particularly efficient.     

Asthma Patients' Activities and Air Pollution: A Semiparametric Censored Regression Analysis

Asthma patients' health status may be especially sensitive to some types of air pollution, but the evidence on this is mixed. We explore the effects of ground-level ozone on asthma patient's activities, breaking apart the usual aggregated category of leisure into indoor and outdoor activities, and differentiating those by whether the activities were active or inactive. Applying the semiparametric censored estimation method we demonstrate that even though the period over which activities were observed was relatively low in ozone levels, there is a significant impact of ozone on a few activities. The (non-ozone) economic and demographic variables in the model play significant roles in explaining the allocation of time among seven activities, suggesting the suitability of the approach for other household decision-making contexts.     

A Process for Incorporating Comparative Risk into Environmental Policymaking in Louisiana

The goal of Louisiana's 1990–1991 comparative risk project, also called the Louisiana Environmental Action Plan (LEAP), was to incorporate risk assessment into state environmental planning and policymaking. Scientists, government officials, and citizens were brought together to estimate the relative risk to human health, natural resources, and quality of life posed by 33 selected environmental issues. The issues were then ranked according to their relative estimated risks. It was hoped that this ranking of "comparative risks" would enable state policymakers to target the most important environmental problems and allocate scarce public resources more rationally and efficiently. As a result of the project, the governor issued an Executive Order forming a permanent Public Advisory Committee to continue this type of comparative risk assessment in Louisiana.     

Native American drinking: a neglected subject of study and research

Although Native Americans are plagued by high rates of alcoholism, violence, suicide and early death, these social and clinical problems are usually given little more than cursory treatment in textbooks. A content analysis of twenty-six textbooks on alcoholism and substance misuse revealed that only four provided a detailed discussion of Native American drinking. Greater attention needs to be given to the cultural, psychological, and biological issues of drinking and drunkenness among this special population.     

Domains of convergence for the EM algorithm: a cautionary tale in a location estimation problem

The EM algorithm is a popular method for maximizing a likelihood in the presence of incomplete data. When the likelihood has multiple local maxima, the parameter space can be partitioned into domains of convergence, one for each local maximum. In this paper we investigate these domains for the location family generated by the t-distribution. We show that, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, these domains need not be connected sets. As an extreme case we give an example of a domain which consists of an infinite union of disjoint open intervals. Thus the convergence behaviour of the EM algorithm can be quite sensitive to the starting point.     

Characteristics of smokeless tobacco use among high school football players as related to type of smokeless tobacco and period of use.

The present study was conducted to assess differences in the behavioral and demographic characteristics of snuff (dip) users as compared to users of chewing tobacco. High School football players (1116) were surveyed concerning their use and perceptions of smokeless tobacco. Adolescent athletes who tried smokeless tobacco were more likely to be white, to use cigarettes, alcohol, and cigars and to have family users than those who never tried. Initial use was highest before the age of fourteen years and was influenced by friends, curiosity and family. Dippers tended to initiate use because of friends, while chewers started because of family users. Users of both dip and chew started primarily because of curiosity. Users of both were more likely to consume greater amounts to alcohol and cigarettes and to smoke cigars and pipes. It appears that the longer smokeless tobacco is consumed, the more likely both dip and chew will be used. Users of smokeless tobacco for more than two years tended to consume more of the product each week, used it for more hours/day, initiated use at an earlier age, and used it more often at school and work than those using it for less than two years. Use of cigars/pipes, consumption of alcohol, and quantity of cigarette consumption increased significantly with longer duration of smokeless tobacco use. Intervention and prevention programs would be helped by understanding differences between users of various smokeless tobacco products and differences related to the duration of use. In addition, further analyses of smokeless tobacco users should study chewers, dippers, and users of both separately.