Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

"PUBLIC' WORK AND SOCIAL PARTICIPATION:

The impact of labor force participation by women on their social activism is examined using data gathered in a study of 695 North Carolina farm families. The traditional gender division of labor into "instrumental' (male) and "expressive' (female) activism breaks down when women take off-farm jobs. Their rates of activism in instrumental organizations move closer to those of men. Labor force participation by women also reduces the impact of the husband on the wife's activism.     

Monitoring and evaluation in Malawi

When Ian Wilson and Carlos Barahona of the Statistical Services Centre at the University of Reading were asked to review an evaluation of the effectiveness of an aid package in Malawi, they expected a simple enough task. But few things in the developing world are simple. Where aid for the poorest is concerned, is evidence collected and analysed with enough rigour to enable well-informed decisions to be made?     

Newcomb's Hidden Regress

Newcomb's problem supposedly involves your choosing one or else two boxes in circumstances in which a predictor has made a prediction of how many boxes you will choose. We argue that the circumstances which allegedly define Newcomb's problem generate a previously unnoticed regress which shows that Newcomb's problem is insoluble because it is ill-formed. Those who favor, as we do, a ``no-box' reply to Newcomb's problem typically claim either that the problem's solution is underdetermined or else that it is overdetermined. We are no-boxers of the first kind, but the underdetermination we identify is more radical than any previously identified: it blocks the very set-up of the problem and not just potential solutions to the problem once it has been set up. The defect is subtle, but it cripples every genuine version of the problem, regardless of variations in such things as the predictor's degree of reliability, the basis on which the prediction is made, or the amount of money in each box. The regress shows that, surprisingly enough, no one can understand Newcomb's problem, and so no one can possibly solve it.     

The Experience and Practice of Approved Social Workers in Northern Ireland

Correspondence to Dr Roger Manktelow, School of Social and Community Sciences, University of Ulster Magee College, Derry, BT48 7JL, Northern Ireland. Summary This article reports on the first extensive survey of ApprovedSocial Worker (ASW) activity under the Mental Health (NorthernIreland) Order 1986. The integrated health and social servicesorganizational structure, the adverse effects on individualmental health of the legacy of thirty years of civil conflictand the move from hospital to community care are significantfeatures which have influenced the delivery of mental healthsocial work services locally. The practice and experience ofASWs was surveyed by postal questionnaire and user and carerexperience of compulsory hospital admission was investigatedby a series of focus groups. The study revealed that two-thirdsof ASWs had experience of acting as an applicant in compulsoryhospital admission during the past two years. Nearly half (42per cent) of these ASWs had reported experience of between oneand five admissions and one-tenth had completed over twentyadmissions in the two-year period. In only a small minorityof cases did joint face-to-face assessment with the GeneralPractitioner (doctor) take place; nearly half of ASWs reporteddifficulties in obtaining transport; and only one-fifth of ASWshad experience of acting as a second approved social worker.Half of ASWs reported experience of guardianship, either asapplicant or in making the recommendation. Both service usersand carers reported a lack of understanding about the role ofthe ASW and complained about the lack of alternative resourcesthat ASWs could use to prevent hospital admissions. These findingsare discussed and a number of recommendations are proposed forimprovements to approved social worker practice.     

EFFICIENT USER CHARGES IN A RENT-SEEKING MODEL

This paper examines efficient user charges on governmentally provided facilities in the presence of rent seeking. We find that the efficient user charge depends upon the relative slopes of the demand curve for the use of the facility and the corresponding marginal cost curve, as well as the level of rent seeking over the revenue raised. Except for a special case, the efficient user charge is found to differ from the charge indicated by the intersection of demand and marginal cost curves. Examples show that actual user charges on government facilities are often set at inefficient levels.     

Don't Screw the Crew: Exploring the Rules of Engagement in Organizational Romance

Thirty years ago sociological research began to discover what workplace romance might mean for the participants. Since then management research has tended to adopt a functionalist approach, using survey methods, or third‐party approaches to ask about company policy and negative consequences of workplace romance, warning of the dangers and consequences of romance and offering solutions for managers on how to deal with this potential problem. Drawing on the sexuality of organization and critical literature, and adopting a position of constructivist structuralism with a qualitative research method, this research looks at how the concept of workplace romance is defined and negotiated within a public‐house setting. It examines the ‘rules of engagement’, the personal experiences and views of both managers and workers, as well as first‐hand stories of workplace romance. Romance was conceptualized as ‘natural’ and something that could not be legislated for, where unwritten rules were defined but often ignored. However, the ‘rules of engagement’ emerged as favouring particular groups depending on gender, position in the hierarchy and sexual identity. Subjective value judgements are made, often resting on gendered assumptions of male and female behaviour.     

Assessing the cost of behaviorally oriented residential treatment: predictive program factors

The authors identify program characteristics most predictive of cost in 13 residential treatment facilities for emotionally disturbed children and discuss how easily obtainable quantitative information can be used to decide resource allocation.     

The Entry Behavior of Aggressive/Rejected Children: The Contributions of Status and Temperament

This study investigated the entry behavior and temperamental characteristics of aggressive/rejected and nonaggressive/popular kindergarten and first‐grade children. An analog entry situation was used to assess children's entry skills. Aggressive/rejected children had more difficulty than nonaggressive/popular children delivering their entry bids in a well‐timed manner and engaged in more disruptive entry strategies. They also tended to use more aggressive entry strategies after experiencing entry failure. The children's temperamental characteristics accounted for significant variance in their entry behavior. Temperamental fear made a positive contribution to children's use of socially appropriate entry strategies. The children's status and impulsiveness each explained unique variance in their use of disruptive entry strategies. Aggressive/rejected girls were more impulsive than other groups and tended to be less fearful.