THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSION—A VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex‐ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.     

Testing Overdispersion in CUBE Models

A practical problem with large-scale survey data is the possible presence of overdispersion. It occurs when the data display more variability than is predicted by the variance–mean relationship. This article describes a probability distribution generated by a mixture of discrete random variables to capture uncertainty, feeling, and overdispersion. Specifically, several tests for detecting overdispersion will be implemented on the basis of the asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators. We discuss the results of a simulation experiment concerning log-likelihood ratio, Wald, Score, and Profile tests. Finally, some real datasets are analyzed to illustrate the previous results.     

Influence diagnostics for the Weibull-Negative-Binomial regression model with cure rate under latent failure causes

In this paper, we propose a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Negative Binomial distribution and the time to event follows a Weibull distribution. Indeed, we introduce the Weibull-Negative-Binomial (WNB) distribution, which can be used in order to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing and some non-monotonous shaped. Another advantage of the proposed model is that it has some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Moreover, the proposed model includes as special cases some of the well-know cure rate models discussed in the literature. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a WNB model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to perform global influence analysis. Finally, the methodology is illustrated on a medical data.     

Investigating impacts of complex sampling on latent growth curve modelling

We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling.     

Barrios and burbs: residential context and health-risk behaviors among Angeleno adolescents

The increasing size of the Latino immigrant population in the United States underscores the need for a more complete understanding of the role that social context plays in influencing the health of immigrants and their children. This analysis explores the possibility that residential location influences the health-risk behaviors of Latino youth in Los Angeles County, California. The data come from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey. We apply multivariate, multilevel Rasch models to two scales of adolescent health-risk behaviors (substance use and delinquency). The findings suggest that residence in Census tracts characterized by above-county-average levels of Latinos and above-county-average levels of poverty is associated with increased odds of health-risk behaviors for Latino adolescents, particularly for those born in the United States. The findings lend support to the contention, put forth in the segmented assimilation literature, that disadvantaged urban contexts increase the risk that U.S.-born children of immigrants will experience downward assimilation.     

SIMPCA: a framework for rotating and sparsifying principal components

We propose an algorithmic framework for computing sparse components from rotated principal components. This methodology, called SIMPCA, is useful to replace the unreliable practice of ignoring small coefficients of rotated components when interpreting them. The algorithm computes genuinely sparse components by projecting rotated principal components onto subsets of variables. The so simplified components are highly correlated with the corresponding components. By choosing different simplification strategies different sparse solutions can be obtained which can be used to compare alternative interpretations of the principal components. We give some examples of how effective simplified solutions can be achieved with SIMPCA using some publicly available data sets.     

Über kulturelle Einbettung und strukturelle Innovationspotentiale von Projekten

A focus on culture provides a behind-the-scenes view of daily actions resulting from patterns established through structures and leadership concepts. The more complex, the more capable of making decisions, the more self-referential the units are, the more important corporate culture becomes for communication within projects and with their environments. Corporate culture – whether planned or random, functional or dysfunctional – develops wherever communication and collaboration happen regularly. Companies can use projects in a special way to create different cultures and thus to initiate change more successfully. In this process, corporate culture stands for the perspective on the whole including all its differences. The project leader has the special responsibility of relating different cultures to each other while considering and managing the project and its environments as a sensible whole.     

Expanding and Diversifying South Mediterranean Exports through Trade Facilitation

This article explores whether trade facilitation – i.e. improved and simplified trade procedures – could be an important part of the reform agenda of the Barcelona Process. Adopting a Southern perspective by focusing on exports to the European Union (EU) from non‐EU Mediterranean countries, it tests whether the efficiency of trade procedures affects (i) bilateral volumes of exports and (ii) the number of products exported. The findings suggest that trade facilitation could lead to substantially increased export volumes and export diversification.     

Household Saving Behavior and the Influence of Family-Owned Business

This study focused on the lifecycle income objective of business-owning (farm and nonfarm) households. We hypothesized that the complex relationship between household and business management decisions had the potential to challenge predictions from standard household savings theory. Specifically, we tested for differences in saving behavior of these entrepreneurial households relative to the average US household. A limited dependent variable model was performed, keying in on the saving behavior and ability of household respondents in the Survey of Consumer Finances for 2007. The estimation results indicated that, along with standard demographic influences of savings models, households owning a farm or nonfarm business had a significantly higher likelihood of maintaining private saving in a given year. Our results highlight the necessity for future research on household saving behavior to account for the differing objectives and choice sets faced by households that own businesses when conducting analyses of household saving.     

College Students’ Perceptions of Media Portrayals of Divorce

This study takes an exploratory, qualitative approach to examine college students’ perceptions about divorce in the media. Findings suggest that participants perceived both positive and negative representations of divorced families in the media they consume, highlighting the complex nature of navigating and communicating through a divorce. Specifically, college students reported on aspects of the ex-spousal relationship, how children are affected, and the contrast between life pre- and postdivorce. An inductive theme analysis revealed several positive and negative media representations of divorce. Largely, college students perceive media messages about divorce to be accurate portrayals and impactful representations.