Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets

We develop a parsimonious model to study the equilibrium and socially optimal decisions of banks to enter, trade in, and possibly exit, an OTC market. Although we endow all banks with the same trading technology, banks' optimal entry and trading decisions endogenously lead to a realistic market structure composed of dealers and customers with distinct trading patterns. We decompose banks' entry incentives into incentives to hedge risk and incentives to make intermediation profits. We show that dealer banks enter more than is socially optimal. In the face of large negative shocks, they may also exit more than is socially optimal when markets are not perfectly resilient.     

Les transformations actuelles du régime de l'innovation en Wallonie: une analyse des pôles de compétitivité

Notre contribution propose une grille d'analyse du régime wallon de l'innovation et des transformations dont il est l'objet. Nous mettons en évidence les dynamiques qui ont émergé en Wallonie entre les stakeholders de l'innovation et le régime existant, autour de la mise en place des pôles de compétitivité. L'originalité de notre article repose sur l'utilisation de concepts comme le “macro-récit” ou le “paysage socio-technique” pour interpréter les dynamiques d'une politique publique d'innovation et appréhender la complexité de l'univers discursif, institutionnel, historique, culturel, social et technologique des acteurs en présence. Notre analyse montre qu'une telle approche est nécessaire en complément à une évaluation d'impact traditionnelle pour mesurer les chances de succès de l'implémentation durable de la politique wallonne des pôles de compétitivité. Nous concluons que le modèle d'innovation qui transparait relève d'une appréhension systémique des modes de production de connaissance, mais reste cloisonné dans une logique instrumentale de l'innovation, insuffisante et peu réflexive, maintenant à distance la société et certains stakeholders de l'innovation.     

When Passion Leads to Problematic Outcomes: A Look at Gambling

Vallerand et al. (2003) have proposed that individuals can have two distinct types of passion toward an activity. Harmonious passion, an internal force leading one to choose to engage in the activity, is proposed to be associated with positive consequences. Obsessive passion, an internal pressure forcing one to engage in an activity, is posited to be associated with negative consequences. The present study sought to determine the role of the two types of passion in various cognitive and affective states associated with dependence and problems with gambling. Participants (n = 412) were recruited at the Montréal Casino and given a questionnaire measuring passion toward gambling, as well as consequences associated with dependence and problem gambling. Results showed that obsessive passion for gambling predicted poorer vitality and concentration in daily tasks, as well as increased rumination, anxiety, negative mood, guilt, and problem gambling. These relations were not found for harmonious passion for gambling. Results are discussed in light of the motivational approach to passion (Vallerand et al., 2003).     

On Bayesian estimators in multistage binomial designs

A new class of Bayesian estimators for a proportion in multistage binomial designs is considered. Priors belong to the beta-J distribution family, which is derived from the Fisher information associated with the design. The transposition of the beta parameters of the Haldane and the uniform priors in fixed binomial experiments into the beta-J distribution yields bias-corrected versions of these priors in multistage designs. We show that the estimator of the posterior mean based on the corrected Haldane prior and the estimator of the posterior mode based on the corrected uniform prior have good frequentist properties. An easy-to-use approximation of the estimator of the posterior mode is provided. The new Bayesian estimators are compared to Whitehead's and the uniformly minimum variance estimators through several multistage designs. Last, the bias of the estimator of the posterior mode is derived for a particular case.     

Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty: The Case of Yemen

Yemen is an oil‐exporting and food‐importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre‐existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil‐driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro‐poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty.     

Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

欧洲青年白皮书由来及对青年的影响

本文译自《二十一世纪论坛》2007年第8期,是StefanBecsky博士邀请作者撰写一篇有关白皮书对欧洲青年影响的文章。作者审视与回顾了过去十年来欧洲青年政策发展变化的历程,对未来十年青年工作具有指导意义。作者曾积极参与了有关青年白皮书项目的工作,作者希望读者们通过阅读,获得第一手资料并分享作者个人的经验。     

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Radon Screening Programs in Reducing Lung Cancer Mortality

The present study was aimed at assessing the health consequences of the presence of radon in Quebec homes and the possible impact of various screening programs on lung cancer mortality. Lung cancer risk due to this radioactive gas was estimated according to the cancer risk model developed by the Sixth Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. Objective data on residential radon exposure, population mobility, and tobacco use in the study population were integrated into a Monte‐Carlo‐type model. Participation rates to radon screening programs were estimated from published data. According to the model used, approximately 10% of deaths due to lung cancer are attributable to residential radon exposure on a yearly basis in Quebec. In the long term, the promotion of a universal screening program would prevent less than one death/year on a province‐wide scale (0.8 case; IC 99%: –3.6 to 5.2 cases/year), for an overall reduction of 0.19% in radon‐related mortality. Reductions in mortality due to radon by (1) the implementation of a targeted screening program in the region with the highest concentrations, (2) the promotion of screening on a local basis with financial support, or (3) the realization of systematic investigations in primary and secondary schools would increase to 1%, 14%, and 16.4%, respectively, in the each of the populations targeted by these scenarios. Other than the battle against tobacco use, radon screening in public buildings thus currently appears as the most promising screening policy for reducing radon‐related lung cancer.