Marginal models for the association structure of hierarchical binary responses

Clustered binary responses are often found in ecological studies. Data analysis may include modeling the marginal probability response. However, when the association is the main scientific focus, modeling the correlation structure between pairs of responses is the key part of the analysis. Second-order generalized estimating equations (GEE) are established in the literature. Some of them are more efficient in computational terms, especially facing large clusters. Alternating logistic regression (ALR) and orthogonalized residual (ORTH) GEE methods are presented and compared in this paper. Simulation results show a slightly superiority of ALR over ORTH. Marginal probabilities and odds ratios are also estimated and compared in a real ecological study involving a three-level hierarchical clustering. ALR and ORTH models are useful for modeling complex association structure with large cluster sizes.     

发达国家环境治理及钢铁产业升级转型对我国京津冀地区的借鉴

纵观我国京津冀地区的发展,经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾日益突出,而钢铁行业的发展尤为突出.本文总结了美、日、德三个发达国家在类似阶段时环境治理和钢铁产业结构升级的作法,分析了三个国家在完善立法、采用经济手段进行环境污染治理、鼓励钢铁企业兼并及扶持高新产业发展等方面的经验,提炼出对我国京津冀地区进行环境治理和钢铁企业升级转型中的借鉴之处,给出了相应的建议,希望能为我国京津冀地区协同发展提供参考.     

农村外出劳动力回流迁移的影响因素和回流效应

文章分析农村外出劳动力回流迁移的影响因素.农村外出劳动力在城市就业、经济收入和社会保障的排斥影响他们的回流,同时回流迁移也受到家庭生活、家庭劳动力状况、家庭农业活动和农地状况等因素的影响.外出劳动力的回流迁移是“被动回流”和“主动回流”相结合的过程、是个体决策和家庭决策的综合过程.文章提出劳动力回流迁移具有“回流效应”,回流带来人力资本的补偿、促进流出地非农经济的发展和带来创业的增长.劳动力回流作为城镇化过程中内生的逆迁移流,构成乡城迁移和劳动力市场平衡的补充机制,与乡城迁移一起促进城镇化和城乡平衡发展.文章提出在城镇化过程中需要支持“迁移效应”和“回流效应”机制共同发挥作用.     

Racial diversity in the suburbs: how race-neutral responses to demographic change perpetuate inequity in suburban school districts

Suburbs across the US are experiencing dramatic demographic shifts, yet there is little research available on how suburban school districts are dealing with these changes. In this article, we examine the discourses surrounding race and demographic change in three suburban school districts that have been undergoing rapid demographic changes and which contain demographically distinct areas within their district boundaries. Utilizing a critical discourse analysis (CDA) approach, we analyze how the policy context (federal and state) frames actors’ discourses and understandings of race, paying particular attention to the political and institutional factors affecting school policy. We illustrate how the discourse, in turn, is related to the actions (or inactions) taken by district and school leaders to respond to demographic change. We conclude the article by discussing policy implications and potential challenges districts may face in the future if efforts to purposively address racial changes continue to be avoided.     

承接国际服务外包、技术溢出与本土企业创新能力提升

近几年服务外包产业发展迅速,并产生广泛的经济效应。本文基于江苏省三个服务外包基地城市为样本的微观企业调查数据,实证研究了软件行业承接国际服务外包获得的技术溢出对创新能力提升的作用。研究结果表明,承接国际软件外包获得了技术溢出,企业创新能力得到提升。在技术外溢的多种可能途径中,人力资本作用最为突出,发包方技术转移较为显著,政府服务通过影响企业人力资本水平等途径间接影响服务外包的技术外溢,提升了本土企业创新能力。     

Condom Use Trajectories in Adolescence and the Transition to Adulthood: The Role of Mother and Father Support

Few studies have investigated how mother and father support differ on predicting youths' sexual risk behavior. We therefore examined the influence of parental support on condom use trajectories and its correlates in a predominantly African American sample [(N=627; 53% female; M = 14.86 years (SD=. 64)] from adolescence to young adulthood. We used hierarchical growth curve modeling to examine the relationship between condom use, substance use, psychological distress and parental support prospectively. We found that consistent condom use decreased over time and was associated negatively with psychological distress and substance use. Furthermore, both maternal and paternal support were associated with more condom use over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for HIV prevention programs.     

The profile of cyclists in the city of Juiz de Fora

The problems related to the means of transport in urban Brazilians have been getting worse over the years. The increase of the fleet, to the detriment of the adequacy and extent of the road network of cities contributes to this fact. This paper presents a profile of users of cycling in the city of Juiz de Fora, and thus contributes to the study of sustainable urban mobility, providing researchers with information that can guide the search for the encouragement of the use of means of transport to meet environmental needs urban centers that contributes to social equity.     

利益分析视角下的公路班线客运集约化发展研究

公路班线客运集约化改革的难点在于利益关系的协调。在广泛调研和深入访谈的基础上，结合班线客运发展历程及现状，从利益分析的视角剖析了政府、企业、个体之间的利益诉求、利益冲突及利益博弈的内在机理，指出挂靠关系下企业与个体之间的利益争夺是集约化发展难以推进的根源。研究提出以当前利益分配格局为均衡点的“实收配股”集约化发展改革方案，同时强调政府应转变职能定位、完善相关政策，防止形成市场封锁或垄断。     

Warum und wodurch Coaching wirkt

The contribution reviews the state oft the art of the research on general success factors in the coaching process. Research in the field of psychotherapy on basic variables of client centered counseling and general therapeutic change mechanisms set an example. Results of first studies on these and modified factors show that the coaching outcome depends on observed esteem and emotional support by the coach, resource activation and support of transfer into practice. Process analysis of nonverbal interactions between coach and client demonstrate that goal attainment influence goal attainment. Finally, the paper focuses on limitations, of the studies, scientific and practical conclusions as well as future perspectives.     

The Memory of Childhood

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