浅谈突发事件报道中的宗教感情与舆论的心理引导

宗教问题历来是新闻宣传中最为敏感的政治话题之一,近年来各种与宗教相关的社会突发事件、社会热点事件不断发生,使得这些事件中的舆论引导问题成了大众传媒、宗教媒体比较棘手、需要迫切解决的重要课题,当前学术界相应的研究也显现不足.本文认为,具有偏执和妄想特征的宗教感情是一种特殊的群体心理,在突发事件或一定刺激下表现得更加强烈,传播者在坚持宗教禁忌报道的“恪守”原则等基础上,可以从归属、认同、怂动、凝聚四个方面加大舆论的感性心理引导,在满足其心理慰藉和情感宣泄的同时,能更有效地化解矛盾,使其宗教感情朝着更为平和与高尚、和谐与积极的方向发展.     

中国实施自由贸易区战略简论

中共十七大正式提出"实施自由贸易区战略",从政治高度确立了"自由贸易区战略"在中国发展全局中的重要地位.在实施自由贸易区战略中,中国注重全球战略布局,表现出一个影响力不断上升的区域性经济体向全球扩展的强劲势头.中国通过实施自由贸易区战略,在不断拓展经济影响力的基础上为全球贸易和投资自由化注入动力,但在区域和全球层面仍然受制于美国等西方经济体为主导的国际经济秩序.中国借发展自由贸易区不断拓宽经济发展空间,将加速区域经济一体化进程,实现出口市场的多元化和防范经济风险.     

民众知识形态描述

本文对民众知识的存在、层次、思维、内容、传承等形态进行了粗略的描述 ,提出了多种相应的认识推论 ,对民众知识概念及其所关涉的一些问题给予了提示性的回答     

游牧经济的机动性分析--以古代蒙古族的游牧经济为例

1800年以前,世界的军事优势一直控制在生活在亚欧大陆腹地的游牧民族手中.在此前两千五百多年间,游牧民族曾经在亚欧大陆纵横驰骋,东亚、南亚、西亚和欧洲的许多农业帝国纷纷被来自草原的游牧民族所吞并,其原因何在呢?本文认为,这正是游牧民族独特的生产方式赋予游牧民族的灵活的机动性所致.     

Mixed-effects Models with Skewed Distributions for Time-varying Decay Rate in HIV Dynamics

After initiation of treatment, HIV viral load has multiphasic changes, which indicates that the viral decay rate is a time-varying process. Mixed-effects models with different time-varying decay rate functions have been proposed in literature. However, there are two unresolved critical issues: (i) it is not clear which model is more appropriate for practical use, and (ii) the model random errors are commonly assumed to follow a normal distribution, which may be unrealistic and can obscure important features of within- and among-subject variations. Because asymmetry of HIV viral load data is still noticeable even after transformation, it is important to use a more general distribution family that enables the unrealistic normal assumption to be relaxed. We developed skew-elliptical (SE) Bayesian mixed-effects models by considering the model random errors to have an SE distribution. We compared the performance among five SE models that have different time-varying decay rate functions. For each model, we also contrasted the performance under different model random error assumptions such as normal, Student-t, skew-normal, or skew-t distribution. Two AIDS clinical trial datasets were used to illustrate the proposed models and methods. The results indicate that the model with a time-varying viral decay rate that has two exponential components is preferred. Among the four distribution assumptions, the skew-t and skew-normal models provided better fitting to the data than normal or Student-t model, suggesting that it is important to assume a model with a skewed distribution in order to achieve reasonable results when the data exhibit skewness.     

生态旅游与旅游生态化辨析

10多年来,生态旅游在中国的发展虽然很快,但理论上悬而未决的争论还较多,集中表现在生态旅游是旅游产品还是旅游发展模式、生态旅游是高档旅游还是大众旅游、生态旅游对象是自然区域还是可以包括地方文化区域等三个方面。同时在发展过程中,生态旅游在中国的实践中也出现了很多非生态化现象和"泛化"现象。这些现象的出现归根结底是由于将生态旅游与旅游生态化混为一谈造成的。本文通过对"生态旅游"、"旅游生态化"的辨析,对相关问题作了初步解答,并试图还原生态旅游的本意,探索今后生态旅游发展的正确途径。     

海河图书馆应用地下储能技术的可行性分析

海河图书馆是天津市海河开发规划确定的公建项目.按照天津市政府提出的建筑应达到"三步节能"的要求,该项目已被列入天津市节能建筑示范工程.     

袁宏道净土思想略论

明代著名辅教居士袁宏道,早年矢志参禅,洞有所入.然亦颇沾"狂禅"习气,一悟便休,不究如来之了义、不知达摩之玄机,空腹高心,卑视净土法门,甚至于呵佛骂祖、斥教遮相.所幸生死心切,故能触机猛省,毅然摒弃偏空之见,悟修并重,乘戒兼行,豁悟达摩祖师说罪福之皆虚与永明延寿和尚言万善之总是,均为祛迷拯溺之论,实无彼此抵牾之处.于是至诚归心净土,借念佛之警切提醒参禅之深心,复藉参门之洞彻坚固净土之信行.嗣后,为广利蹇滞浊界之群生,特别是为指示深陷宗教歧路和禅净宿疑而不能自拔之士,袁宏道更深入普贤愿海,博综经论,撰成《西方合论》十卷,力主净土诸经与《大方广佛华严经》、《法华经》的不分优劣,并融贯教理、广破邪疑,直开正信、径指趣归.     

The Relation Between Popularity and Aggressive,Destructive, and Norm‐Breaking Behaviors: Moderating Effects of Athletic Abilities,Physical Attractiveness,and Prosociality

The aim of this study was to examine the relations between popularity and different types of aggressive, destructive, and norm‐breaking behaviors in a large cross‐sectional sample of adolescents (N=3,312, M age=13.60). We were interested in the extent to which the relations of these behaviors with popularity were moderated by positive features (i.e., athletic abilities, physical attractiveness, and prosociality). From a goal‐framing perspective, it was argued that positive features evoke positive affect, which in turn enhances the positive impact of aggressive, destructive, and norm‐breaking behaviors on popularity. The results supported our notion that these latter behaviors are especially related to popularity in adolescents who also exhibit positive features.     

基于贝叶斯学习的惩罚因子的选择

文章基于贝叶斯学习,将正则化方法从贝叶斯分析的角度展开,在响应变量服从正态分布、回归系数服从指数型先验分布族的条件下,用贝叶斯准则给出了惩罚因子的取值与响应变量、系数的方差之间的关系,并将这一结果应用到岭回归和lasso回归中惩罚因子的选择.实例检验结果表明,当响应变量和系数服从正态分布,惩罚因子的值取二者方差商的方法比岭迹法和广义交叉验证法(GCV)拟合效果更优.