Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging

In statistical applications, logistic regression is a popular method for analyzing binary data accompanied by explanatory variables. But when one of the two outcomes is rare, the estimation of model parameters has been shown to be severely biased and hence estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on a logistic regression model would be inaccurate. In this article, we focus on estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on logistic regression models. Instead of selecting a best model, we propose a local model averaging procedure based on a data perturbation technique applied to different information criteria to obtain different probability estimates of rare events occurring. Then an approximately unbiased estimator of Kullback‐Leibler loss is used to choose the best one among them. We design complete simulations to show the effectiveness of our approach. For illustration, a necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) data set is analyzed.     

Toward a Framework for Multicultural STEM‐Focused Career Interventions

Numerous federal and national commissions have called for policies, funds, and initiatives aimed at expanding the nation's science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce and education investments to create a significantly larger, more diverse talent pool of individuals who pursue technical careers. Career development professionals are poised to contribute to the equity discourse about broadening STEM participation. However, few are aware of STEM‐related career development matters, career opportunities and pathways, or strategies for promoting STEM pursuits. The author summarizes STEM education and workforce trends and articulates an equity imperative for broadening and diversifying STEM participation. The author then offers a multicultural STEM‐focused career development framework to encourage career development professionals’ knowledge and awareness of STEM education and careers and delineates considerations for practice aimed at increasing the attainment and achievement of diverse groups in STEM fields.     

Risk‐Based Approach for Microbiological Food Safety Management in the Dairy Industry: The Case of Listeria monocytogenes in Soft Cheese Made from Pasteurized Milk

According to Codex Alimentarius Commission recommendations, management options applied at the process production level should be based on good hygiene practices, HACCP system, and new risk management metrics such as the food safety objective. To follow this last recommendation, the use of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is an appealing approach to link new risk‐based metrics to management options that may be applied by food operators. Through a specific case study, Listeria monocytogenes in soft cheese made from pasteurized milk, the objective of the present article is to practically show how quantitative risk assessment could be used to direct potential intervention strategies at different food processing steps. Based on many assumptions, the model developed estimates the risk of listeriosis at the moment of consumption taking into account the entire manufacturing process and potential sources of contamination. From pasteurization to consumption, the amplification of a primo‐contamination event of the milk, the fresh cheese or the process environment is simulated, over time, space, and between products, accounting for the impact of management options, such as hygienic operations and sampling plans. A sensitivity analysis of the model will help orientating data to be collected prioritarily for the improvement and the validation of the model. What‐if scenarios were simulated and allowed for the identification of major parameters contributing to the risk of listeriosis and the optimization of preventive and corrective measures.     

Variables Affecting Readiness to Benefit From Career Interventions

This article identifies and briefly describes the broad range of variables that may influence clients’ readiness to benefit from career interventions. The article also discusses consequences of low readiness for effective use of career interventions and addresses implications for practice as well as for future research. Variables contributing to low readiness for effective use of career interventions include personal characteristics and circumstances; knowledge of self, options, and decision making; and prior experience with career interventions. Consequences of low readiness for using career interventions include premature disengagement, negative perception of skills and interests, selective acquisition of incomplete information, premature choice foreclosure, protracted exploration, dependent decision‐making style, and poor evaluation of options.     

Computer‐Assisted Career Guidance Systems: A Part of NCDA History

The first computer‐assisted career planning systems were developed in the late 1960s and were based soundly on the best of career development and decision‐making theory. Over the years, this tradition has continued as the technology that delivers these systems’ content has improved dramatically and as they have been universally accepted as effective tools for career guidance practice. Although their widespread use in the United States is currently affected by financial conditions, the potential for using these systems in developing countries as a part of their implementation of career guidance services is promising.     

The Functions and Dysfunctions of Preparations for Fighting Nuclear War

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a survey of the functions and dysfunctions of the nuclear arms race on American society. The analysis of the positive functions does not serve as a justification for the status quo, but is undertaken to point out the numerous constraints mitigating against change. The dysfunctions of U.S. nuclear war preparations are explicitly considered here to point out the direct, indirect and opportunity costs of adhering to a policy of extended deterrence. The juxtaposition of both functions and dysfunctions provides insights concerning potential sources of change and policy alternatives that may decrease the negative consequences without weakening U.S. national security.     

Good Effects of Bad Feelings: Negative Affectivity and Group Decision‐making

Extending the growing interest in the relationship between affect and workgroup processes, we propose that groups make better use of their distributed information and therefore make better decisions when group members are higher in negative affectivity. In an experiment, we studied the influence of negative affectivity when information was distributed among group members and when group members had fully shared information. Results indicated that negative affectivity indeed stimulates group information processing and decision quality when information is distributed among group members.     

Ethnic Identity and Offending Trajectories Among Mexican American Juvenile Offenders: Gang Membership and Psychosocial Maturity

We examined the association of joint trajectories of ethnic identity and criminal offending to psychosocial maturity, gang membership, and Mexican American affiliation among 300 Mexican American male juvenile offenders from ages 14 to 22. There were two low‐offending groups: one was the highest in ethnic identity and changing slightly with age and the other was the lowest in ethnic identity and stable with age. A third group displayed moderately declining offending and moderately stable ethnic identity. A fourth group displayed high‐offending individuals with moderate, but increasing, levels of ethnic identity, who were initially lower in psychosocial maturity and more likely to be gang members. The findings highlight the need to contextualize theories of ethnic identity development.